New Zealand can still pinch series

Having been hopelessly outplayed in the first two matches, Australia did well to bounce back in the next two and now they have a great chance to pinch the series against New Zealand by winning Friday's decider in Brisbane.

It was interesting to hear Daniel Vettori saying this is the most important game for his side in a couple of years. That's exactly the kind of talk I like to hear from a betting perspective.

Australia are obvious favourites, on home soil and with a bit of momentum behind them, but they have a concern about the fitness of Michael Clarke, who has been instrumental in their fightback.

There is, as we have said many times in this series, very little to choose between the two sides and since New Zealand would absolutely love to beat their neighbours in a series, they have all the motivation they require, in addition to showing that they can compete at their best when the pressure is on.

Therefore, bet365's prices of 4/11 for Australia and 2/1 for New Zealand look a bit skewed and the Black Caps are undoubtedly the better value.

Even if Clarke is fit, he is only second favourite to be his side's top scorer at the Gabba. That honour goes to captain Ricky Ponting at 3/1, and he would like nothing more than to lead his side to victory with a century.

Clarke is 7/2, Brad Haddin, who looks a very decent player, is 4/1 and Michael Hussey, who is showing signs of a return to form, is 9/2. David Hussey and James Hopes are each 6/1 and Adam Voges is an 8/1 chance.

For New Zealand, the classy Ross Taylor is favourite at 11/4, with Brendon McCullum next at 7/2. Martin Guptill is 5/1 and Grant Elliott 11/2, with Peter Fulton 6/1 and Cameron Cumming 8/1.

As I said, there is so little between the two that I have to side with New Zealand at the prices. Australia are still far from strong right now, and if Clarke doesn't play, they will be really up against it.