England's balance could be the key

Over the years, England-Pakistan Tests, although excellent and competitive, have inevitably been marred by controversial events. Be it the Gatting-Rana spat in 1987, the ball-tampering episode in 2006 which led to the forfeit at The Oval or the spot-fixing scandal in 2010, the cricket has ended up taking a backseat. However, since then, England have moved to the top of the tree in Tests with convincing series wins against Australia and India while Pakistan, aiming to come out of a scandal-ridden year, have been highly consistent across all forms of the game. The upcoming series will be the first time England and Pakistan face off at a neutral venue.

England have dominated Pakistan overall in the head-to-head contests winning 22 matches to Pakistan's 13. Most of their success, however, has been in home Tests where they lead 20-9. Between 1980 and 1999, Pakistan held the edge with a 8-3 record including three series wins in England. This dominance is clearly reflected in the high average difference (difference between batting and bowling averages) of 7.34. Since 2000, England have drawn one home series (1-1) and won the last two by comfortable margins. England won their first second away series in Pakistan (the first in 1962) in 2000-01 after winning the final Test in Karachi by six wickets. The defeat was incidentally one of only two losses for Pakistan at the venue. Overall, the average difference in Tests in Pakistan (2.21) is not high, but on their previous visit in 2005-06, England were soundly beaten. Considering the fact that they will encounter similar conditions in the upcoming series, England will face a stiff Test.

* Includes the forfeited Test at The Oval in 2006 when England were declared winners

The fortunes of both teams in recent years cannot be more contrasting. England have been excellent in the last two years, drawing in South Africa and crushing Australia and India. A remarkable aspect has been the fact that 10 of their 24 wins since December 2009 have been by an innings. In their last home series against Pakistan, England bowled the visitors out for less than 100 on three different occasions. They have an excellent win-loss ratio of 2.77 in matches played since 2008 and a high average difference of 10.03.

Pakistan, who have faced innumerable crises recently, have still been able to manage a fairly acceptable 9-11 record. Despite their ordinary batting stats (average 31.63), they have stayed competitive purely because of an exceptional bowling attack (average 32.78).

England's rise to the top has been possible because of strong home and away performances. While their win-loss ratio and average difference in home Tests are an outstanding 4.25 and 12.78 respectively, the corresponding numbers in away Tests are less awe inspiring (1.60 and 6.34). Since their successes in 2000-01 in Sri Lanka and Pakistan, England have not won a single series in the subcontinent except for wins against Bangladesh.

A major factor behind England's recent surge is the form of the batting line-up. Alastair Cook, who scored 766 runs in the Ashes, followed it up with an emphatic 294 in the third Test against India. He has been solid against both pace and spin with a high average and balls-per-dismissal. His opening partner Andrew Strauss, however, has not scored a century in 15 innings since his ton in Brisbane and has been in trouble against quality pace at the start of his innings.

The top form of the middle order of Kevin Pietersen, Ian Bell and Jonathan Trott has been the single biggest difference between England and the other teams. Bell in particular, had an exceptional 2011 scoring nearly 1000 runs at an average of 118.75. He has been England's best pace player of pace and spin and has high values of average and balls-per-dismissal against both.

Pakistan's brittle line-up has been a worry in the past but since the defeat in England in 2010, the batting has been far more consistent. Younis Khan and Misbah-ul-Haq provide the necessary experience in the middle order and have been by far Pakistan's best batsmen against pace and spin. Mohammad Hafeez, who has found success as an opener, will be partnered by Taufeeq Umar, who scored his maiden double-century against Sri Lanka recently. While Azhar Ali and Taufeeq have been more solid, the aggressive Umar Akmal and Hafeez have found the going tough against fast bowlers averaging 28.95 and 36.71 respectively. Considering his excellent scoring rate and average against spinners, Akmal could be the key to handle Graeme Swann, who was the second-highest wicket-taker in the previous series between the two teams.

A comparison of the partnership stats reveals the batting strength in England's line-up. While England's top-order partnerships (wickets 1-3) have averaged 54.31 with 29 century stands, Pakistan's top order has been less successful (average of 38.23 with 18 century stands).

England's dominance extends to the middle-order partnerships too. Not only is England's middle-order partnership (wickets 4-6) average higher than Pakistan's, the partnership run-rate of 3.61 is also much higher than Pakistan's 2.99. On more than one occasion in the home series against Pakistan and India, England's lower order came to the team's rescue. The wickets 8-10 average an impressive 26.35 with five century stands and this ability of the lower order to string partnerships will definitely be a big factor in the upcoming series.

England's outstanding pace attack suffered a blow with the injury to Tim Bresnan but is still potent enough to trouble the best batsmen. James Anderson and Stuart Broad were excellent in England but face a challenge to be as effective in the subcontinent. Pakistan's aggressive new-ball attack, led by Umar Gul, will definitely be tested by the in-form England batting.

The Pakistan batsmen were all at sea against Swann in the previous series and the offspinner picked up 22 wickets at an average of just 12.22 in the four Tests with two five-wicket hauls. Swann has been less successful against right-handers than Saeed Ajmal, who has troubled them with his variations. However, against left-handers, Swann's average is 22.97 in the first innings and 18.47 in the second innings while Ajmal's corresponding averages are 29.12 and 35.23.

Both Dubai and Abu Dhabi have been fairly flat surfaces with both pace bowlers and spinners struggling to have a major impact. The batting averages in Dubai in the first and second innings (30.95 and 32.55) have been lower than those in Abu Dhabi (41.10 and 59.06). In the third and fourth innings, however, Dubai has proved to be a superb batting track with averages of 47.91 and 109.25 while the corresponding numbers in Abu Dhabi are around 45.73 and 43.50.