T20 World Cup scenarios: ICC or BCB, who will blink first?

Will Bangladesh take part in the upcoming T20 World Cup or withdraw? If they play, will they play in India or in Sri Lanka? A decision from the ICC is expected today after a Board meeting, which was planned quite late in the day.

As things stand, the BCB has said it won't send the team to India because of concerns around their security there and have instead asked the ICC to move their games to Sri Lanka. The ICC have refused so far. Several meetings have failed to get to a resolution, but today - January 21 - has been given as the deadline for the BCB to inform the ICC what it intends to do.

ESPNcricinfo lays out all the scenarios, probable and improbable, that could play out.

1. Bangladesh agree to play the T20 World Cup in India

Ever since the government sports adviser Asif Nazrul spelled out the Bangladesh government's stance in a Facebook post on January 4, both government and the BCB have stood firm. The BCB has heeded government advice throughout, making the case of a security threat against their team in India. Given how steadfastly the government and BCB have stuck to their stance, it would be a huge surprise if they backtracked and agreed to play in India. There will likely be a massive public backlash if that happens.

2. The ⁠ICC agrees to Bangladesh's demand and they play in Sri Lanka

This is an improbable scenario. The BCB has repeatedly asked the ICC to move its matches to Sri Lanka. During last week's meeting with the ICC, the BCB asked the ICC to move Bangladesh from Group C to Group B and swap its spot with Ireland, who play all their group matches in Sri Lanka. The ICC turned down the request - and has brushed aside one other similar offer of a group swap - and has stuck to its guns on not altering the original grouping and schedule.

⁠3. Bangladesh say no and pull out/withdraw

This is increasingly looking like the likeliest scenario. And Bangladesh not going to the T20 World Cup will have implications. From a cricketing side, missing out on an ICC event would mean a hit on Bangladesh's rankings, mainly because of their absence, but also because the other 19 teams will get the chance to improve their positions while Bangladesh sits out. Whether that affects Bangladesh's chances of automatic qualification in the next T20 World Cup is yet to be ascertained.

For the players, a World Cup is the stage. Bangladesh's cricketers get very little attention otherwise when it comes to getting picked in the various T20 franchise leagues. For example, Rishad Hossain's 14 wickets in the previous edition got him two call-ups to the BBL, which he is playing this season.

There will also be a financial hit, in that the BCB will miss out on US$500,000 the ICC gives as preparation fee. And the players will miss out on prize money, which would at a minimum be US$200,000 split across the squad but with the possibility of more if they win matches.

Scotland will be called in to replace them, as the highest-ranked team of those that haven't qualified.

⁠4. ICC and BCB reach a middle ground

⁠There is no real middle ground in this scenario, so this is improbable. There was talk earlier in the standoff of Bangladesh playing games at different venues within India but that was dismissed by Bangladesh. The PCB is reported to have offered to host their games in Pakistan, a ludicrous idea given Pakistan are playing all their games in Sri Lanka (there have also been reports of the PCB threatening to pull out of the tournament if the BCB's requests are not heard, but that is also likely just posturing). Not to forget, the PCB has also written to the ICC extending its support to the BCB.