The surprise is that anyone was surprised

The news that a batch of British journalists have been refused permission to enter Zimbabwe to cover England's five one-day internationals should not have come as a surprise to anyone. In a country where free speech is just not tolerated - last week a citizen was jailed for eight months for saying in public that he thought Robert Mugabe was a dictator - the government was never going to tolerate having to monitor the activities of more than 30 foreign reporters.

Rumours were circulating last week that Jonathan Moyo's Ministry for Information would be acting in this way - even that ministry's name has sinister connotations, rather in the way that any country with "Democratic" in its name is generally anything but. The weekend's government-controlled newspapers hinted at what was about to happen, and on Monday I was told to expect a last-minute announcement. The idea seemed to be that by leaving it so late, the anti-tour forces outside Zimbabwe wouldn't have time to muster protest. It seems to have worked a treat.

The possibility that this might happen had been flagged with the ICC by the England & Wales Cricket Board. Tim Lamb, the former chief executive, raised it on more than one occasion, both with the ICC and with Zimbabwe Cricket's Max Ebrahim during the Champions Trophy. But as long as the ICC bought into the increasingly unbelievable defence that ZC has no links with the Mugabe government, this was always going to happen. Without the ICC willing to get involved, the ECB was always so scared of financial penalties that anything short of the Zimbabwe authorities slapping Michael Vaughan in jail would be insufficient to cause a cancellation.

The ICC's reaction was weak. Ehsan Mani, the president, described the situation as "disappointing". He added: "We have been in communication with Zimbabwe Cricket for a couple of months and we had no indication until yesterday afternoon that a large number of journalists would be refused entry." If that is true, then clearly few people at the ICC read newspapers or watch television. It seems to have suited all parties concerned - the ICC, ECB and ZC - for this announcement to be made late in the day and be passed off as unexpected.

But in fact the BBC was never going to be allowed in. In June 2000, the corporation was banned because of what the government described as biased election reporting. It was utterly inconceivable that this ban would be suspended for the tour. Accreditation for other newspapers was always unlikely. In April, Mihir Bose of The Daily Telegraph (a paper acting as an agent of MI5 according to Mugabe) was unceremoniously deported over a trumped-up accreditation technicality, and Telford Vice, a freelance writer who works for a variety of mainstream agencies including Cricinfo, was also refused entry. A US$600 fee for processing media applications was also introduced as a further obstacle to those thinking of travelling.

As with any self-respecting dictatorship, control of the media is fundamental. Anti-Mugabe newspapers and broadcasters have been shut down, often against the ruling of the country's supreme court, almost always brutally. But the explosion of the internet has made hiding the truth harder. In August Peter Chingoka, the Zimbabwe board's chairman, said in private that nobody would speak to Wisden Cricinfo as we were "enemies of the state of Zimbabwe". This is the same man who yesterday once again produced his act of bewildered innocence, claiming that it was a government decision and nothing to do with him.

So why are the Zimbabwe government/Zimbabwe Cricket so worried? The levels of protest will be low. Many opponents of the regime have already been rounded up in recent weeks and will be "indisposed" for the next fortnight. Security near the grounds will be tight, bolstered by the ubiquitous and far more threatening heavies from the Central Intelligence Organisation. The chances of demonstrations outside the Harare Sports Club are even less, given that it borders Mugabe's presidential palace. On my most recent visit, at a time when things were Utopian by comparison, I was warned not to stop my car on the roads near the palace or risk being arrested or beaten. I have been assured that protests inside the grounds won't happen as they will be packed with schoolchildren. Recent matches indicate that hardly anybody else will bother to turn up anyway. The fear is that these foreign journalists would stray off the beaten track and talk to ordinary Zimbabweans.

It is no coincidence that, as this announcement was made and dominating the headlines, the Zimbabwe government passed some of its most draconian legislation. They appear to know how to manipulate the media far better than those running cricket.