Woods unlikely to challenge at Pinehurst

Tiger Woods heads the betting for this week's US Open, to be staged at Pinehurst No. 2, at a best-priced 11/2 (6.50) and the American is going for his second consecutive major having won the US Masters in April. But on a tight course, with greens like up-turned saucers, there are a host of reasons why he won't be on top come Sunday night.

OK, so he won the Masters - no mean feat - just two months ago, but Augusta, with its wide-open fairways and minimal rough, is made for him and his power game. Sure, his short game is second to none, but increasingly he's had to use it to dig himself out of trouble. At Pinehurst, the chances are he won't be able to.

When the US Open was last staged there six years ago, Woods was third behind Payne Stewart, arguably the most popular champion ever and the victim of a tragic accident just a few months later. However, that was then and this is now. Whatever he says, Woods is nowhere near as good a player as he was in 1999. His driving is erratic at best - he's 159th in the driving accuracy stats on tour, and the fact that the fairways have been narrowed by six yards from last time means he'll do well to get pars if he finds himself in trouble off the tee. Yes, he's won the US Open twice, but the prices rarely lie and at his peak he would have been nearer 2/1. His will to win and competitive spirit will keep him alive, but if he wins it will be a big surprise.

So, who are the favourites? Well, it's no surprise to see world number one Vijay Singh, Phil Mickelson, two-time winner Ernie Els and Retief Goosen, the defending champion, up there in the betting.

Unlike many of his rivals, Mickelson has been setting his stall around this tournament ever since his Masters defence ended in April. For someone who's been wayward off the tee for much of his career, his US Open record is outstanding. Four times in the top seven in the last six years, Lefty has been second three times, including in 1999, when he was pipped by Stewart for the title. At 9/1 (10.00), he looks set to be up there again.

Els has won the US Open twice, but is strangely out of rhythm at the moment and 8/1 (9.00) is a lot worse value than the 9s on Mickelson. Goosen, whose 69 in the final round at Shinnecock Hills last year has to be one of the best-ever US Open rounds, has not been firing on all cyclinders, but he should not be underestimated, even if the last man to win in successive years was Curtis Strange in 1988 and 1989. Singh, too, is ragged off the tee but cannot be ignored, although the greens may find him out.

The European Challenge
The European challenge is led by Sergio Garcia, Luke Donald and Padraig Harrington, with a strong supporting cast. Garcia goes in on the back of victory at the Booz-Allen Classic and is arguably the holder of the dreaded "best player not to win a Major" tag. If the Spaniard's driving stays strong, and he putts the way he did last week, then 25/1 (26.00) could prove to be big. Donald is being tipped up all over the place, also at 25/1 (26.00). His fine driving and unflappable temperament were on show when he was second at the Players Championship and third at the Masters, but it's asking a lot for him to win on his first Pinehurst visit. Harrington, at 40/1 (41.00), is perhaps a better bet given his excellent Majors record, and his three US Open top 10s will put him in good stead.

Of the outsiders, Lee Westwood, at 80/1 (81.00), will go into the event with confidence after a fine performance behind Garcia last week. He is also sixth in the driving accuracy stats, and putts like a dream when he gets going. Fred Funk, seventh last year and top of the driving stats again, cannot be discarded even at 150/1 (151.00), while at 200/1 (201.00), stranger things have happened than a win for former US PGA champion Steve Elkington, who still drives the ball better than most and knows how to win.

Cambers' Choices: Phil Mickelson 9/1 (10.00), Lee Westwood 80/1 (81.00)