October 20, 2008

Analysing wicketkeepers by byes conceded

David Barry
Paul Downton in action, Middlesex v Kent, Lord's, September 6, 1984
Paul Downton conceded just 1.71 byes per 600 balls  © Getty Images
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Ananth has tried to rate wicketkeepers in his post below, but there are several problems with his analysis, most of them pointed out by commenters. Wicketkeeping is a fundamentally difficult part of cricket to analyse statistically – the usual records that people talk about are dismissals, but these are highly dependent on the bowlers. If Adam Gilchrist comes out as the best pure keeper, it is because he had a great bowling attack which tried to get edges (as opposed to, say, Wasim Akram and Waqar Younis, who often aimed for the pads or stumps).

Nevertheless, we can make a reasonable effort at assessing pure keeping ability by looking at bye rates. To some extent these are also dependent on the bowlers (if they spray the ball down leg a lot then there'll be more byes), but in general the results are much better.

The main stat I'll use here is byes per 600 balls. But this figure needs adjusting to be fair – wicket-keeping is easier in some countries than in others. I applied an adjustment factor by country, based on the overall bye rate of away keepers since World War II. (If you go back much further, you find that bye rates were much higher because keepers stood up to the stumps much more often to fast bowling.)

These were the bye rates per 600 balls for away keepers by country:
Australia: 3.24
Bangladesh: 3.25
England: 3.50
India: 4.96
New Zealand: 3.02
Pakistan: 4.97
South Africa: 2.60
Sri Lanka: 4.27 West Indies: 4.48 Zimbabwe: 1.19

I used as a reference point 3.5 byes per 600 balls. So, if a keeper conceded 2 byes in an innings in India, that would be adjusted to 2 * 3.5 / 4.96 = 1.14 byes.

Here are the results. I've given both the raw byes per 600 balls and the adjusted byes per 600 balls. Qualification: 20 Tests as wicket-keeper:

per 600 balls
name              m   balls   byes  byes  adj
PR Downton        30  29517   84    1.71  1.52
DJ Richardson     42  43222   143   1.99  2.22
APE Knott         95  101704  422   2.49  2.32
NS Tamhane        21  25659   137   3.20  2.37
IDS Smith         63  63672   277   2.61  2.63
Khaled Mashud     44  37099   152   2.46  2.69
SMH Kirmani       88  91761   506   3.31  2.70
KS More           49  54558   280   3.08  2.80
RW Taylor         57  59085   285   2.89  2.81
RD Jacobs         65  69122   294   2.55  2.83

Paul Downton had the good fortune to play some Tests for England in the 1980s, after the introduction of covered wickets and before the modern trend of picking keeper-batsmen. Khaled Mashud is the most surprising name to see here. This list is not perfect, but at least names like Knott and Taylor are near the top. The full list can be seen here.

It will become easier to assess wicket-keepers after some years of club-based Twenty20 cricket. With free player movement between sides, bowlers will bowl with various keepers over the course of a career. Then we'll be able to look at how many dismissals each keeper got off the same bowlers, and so dismissal counts will be a much more useful way of assessing pure keeping ability.

Note: There will be some errors in the byes tallies, because of keepers going off the field and being replaced. Also, I've given the bye rates to two decimal places, but I haven't checked how significant the second decimal place is.

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Keywords: Stats, Wicketkeeping

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Posted by Waspsting on (November 2, 2010, 15:17 GMT)

... and given his superior batting ability, he's the best choice for keeper in an all-time 11 (a lot of people wanted Knott in instead) another difficulty in measuring keepers by the eye is in accounting for their style. There have been some great divers - Dujon, Bari and Evans come to mind - but others have suggested that they only reason they looked so spectacular is because they didn't anticipate as well as Knott or Tallon, who would take the same types of balls without the eyecatching flamboyance (sort of like if Jonty Rhodes had simply thrown down Inzamam's stumps - as Border or Bland probably would have - in 92 World Cup, nobody would have particularly remembered it - as opposed to what he did do, and how everyone will always remember it)

Almost impossible to say. Geoff Boycott made the point about catches when he mentioned how Bob Taylor's record haul of 10 in a match were all straightforward simple catches.

Posted by Waspsting on (November 2, 2010, 15:11 GMT)

The best judge of a keeper would be found in a stat which isn't measured - "number of chances missed". Everyone says, "Healy was a better keeper than Gilchrist". I don't think so, personally. I saw a lot of both of them, and would guess Gilchrist probably missed less than Healy (Healy did look better taking the ball, perhaps because he was shorter?)

Than you look at all the types of things a keeper kept too. Gilchrist has the lot - back to pace, including the express Lee, up to spin (Warne MacGill, sometimes on real turners) and upto medium pacers (I've seen him stand up to Mcgrath and Kasprowicz in ODIs very effectively).

In the absence of misses, byes are a good enough indicator. I know Denis Lindsay had a fabulous record, though not given a lot of credit.

Keepers are very hard to measure. Some get the accolades, some don't. I don't remember Ridley Jacobs or Mongia missing much - does anyone name them with Dujon or Kirmanie?

Gilchrist's keeping was as good as anyone.

Posted by bradluen on (October 24, 2008, 7:19 GMT)

I *suspect* that bowling averages are much, much more dependent on fielding than is commonly held, but this hypothesis is very hard to test.

Posted by D.V.C. on (October 22, 2008, 23:46 GMT)

Of course, the equivalent to a bowling average for a keeper would be byes/dismissal.

We mostly seem to agree though, that this is going to be highly dependant on the bowling attack. More so than the bowling average for a bowler is dependant on the skills of their keeper and fielders.

Posted by D.V.C. on (October 22, 2008, 23:19 GMT)

Thanks David, happy to be proven wrong on the leg byes by a statistical analysis.

It's a pity the inclusion of stumpings wasn't more instructive. Though, that top 5 isn't too bad.

Posted by David Barry on (October 22, 2008, 10:42 GMT)

Byes / (balls * stumpings): Gives weird results, probably correlated to keeping ability, and of course this is viciously harsh on keepers like Dave Richardson and Jeff Dujon who weren't often keeping to spinners. Bob Taylor is at #39, far far too low. The top five, for the little it's worth, are Oldfield, Kirmani, Evans, Gilchrist, Healy.

I may try adjusting by prevailing stumping rates of the era, but that is enough for tonight.

Posted by David Barry on (October 22, 2008, 10:16 GMT)

DVC, there is no correlation between leg bye rates and bye rates. If you plot each keeper's bye rate against leg bye rate, you get a lot of scatter and the regression line is basically horizontal.

Vidhya, no I haven't looked at that. My ball-by-ball database for Tests isn't fully formed, and it'd take me a bit of time to get it working.

Posted by Vidhya on (October 22, 2008, 6:49 GMT)

David, have you done any studies on whether it is spinners or fast bowlers who concede more byes (as a ratio of byes to the runs conceded by that type of bowlers) ?

Posted by Ananth on (October 22, 2008, 4:26 GMT)

Knott played alongside Willis and Snow, who were certainly lesser bowlers than McGrath but certainly equal to or better than Gillespie/Kasprowicz/Lee. To suggest that the wicket-keeper's role in a dismissal is virtually nothing as implied by your statements "You may as well count wickets while player x was at mid off" and "What you consider "contribution to the team" is really a measure of being present when excellent bowlers aiming for the edge of the bat" is a complete non-recognition of a key player's role. To conclude that all "caught-behind"s are instances of great bowlers finding edges and any tom-dick-harry standing behind, catching the same is an extreme conclusion and certainly not the reality. In 2001-02, I did an analysis of the ball-by-ball data of a few Test matches ball-by-ball data and around one in three wicket-keeper dismissals were difficult. One has to accept the role of both, certainly allotting a higher share of credit to the bowler. Let us close this discussion.

Posted by David Barry on (October 22, 2008, 3:38 GMT)

And feel free to use adjusted byes per x balls. It's just a stat, anyone can use it.

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