April 14, 2010

Why all isn't lost for Kolkata yet

Kolkata’s heavy defeat against Chennai have considerably set back their chances of a semi-final berth, but all isn’t yet lost for Sourav Ganguly and Co
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Kolkata’s heavy defeat against Chennai has considerably set back their chances of a semi-final berth, but all isn’t yet lost for Sourav Ganguly and Co. The disadvantage for Kolkata is their net run rate, which, at -0.632, is the lowest among all the teams. The advantage is that they’ll be playing both of their last two matches at home, where they’ve won three out of five matches. The other advantage is the lack of consistency of the rest of the contestants – none of the other teams in the reckoning have shown the kind of form needed to pull away from the pack. If other results go Kolkata’s way – and if they win their last two matches, obviously – they can make the last four without even the need for net run rates to come into play. Consider the following scenario:

Bangalore, Deccan and Chennai lose their remaining matches, which means each of those teams stays at 12 points. If Rajasthan beat Bangalore and lose to Kolkata, they’ll go up to 14, while Delhi move to second place and 16 points with wins against Chennai and Deccan. In such a scenario, Mumbai and Delhi will take the top two places, with Rajasthan and Kolkata will be on 14, with four teams, including Punjab, tied on 12. (And if Bangalore beat Rajasthan, everything else remains the same with Bangalore replacing Rajasthan on 14 points.) Can someone please tell Shahrukh Khan and Ganguly that it ain’t all over yet?

S Rajesh is stats editor of ESPNcricinfo. Follow him on Twitter

Comments have now been closed for this article

  • YUSUF on April 17, 2010, 11:09 GMT

    Journey over for kkr.they r not deserve to play in semis.it has been realy poor perfomence by kkr. ganguly play better but u just look at that his strike rare. its been not good at all.u juts look sachin, dravid kallis thier strike rate.and also biggest mistake they made is they dont open with mccullum.

  • kiran on April 14, 2010, 16:31 GMT

    ll it all up to dada srk and their team lets hope for the best . . .

  • Gyan Prakash on April 14, 2010, 16:29 GMT

    KKR's biggest mistake was dropping hodge and shah for bigger names. Shah was playing well and might have been more useful than mccullum and hussey.

  • sailesh on April 14, 2010, 16:29 GMT

    GANGULY is the only man in the entire team who is playing resonably in this series while gayle is so pleasing for his role. Mccullum, Hussey none of them are showing consistency. Mendis and Ishant can be thrown to trash. KKR should forget what they are and should win last two. Atleast I hope DADA Shouldn't face one more wrong umpiring decision.

  • Ramakanth on April 14, 2010, 16:25 GMT

    It is also possible even if rcb wins all the games...the only thing is chennai and deccan should lose all the remaining matches and kolkata must win the remaining matches..its not that difficult for kolkata still...they must pray for dd and punjab to win the remaining matches.

  • Ashish Mishra I Bank on April 14, 2010, 16:24 GMT

    I Don't know why the people are supporting KKR for their bad performance.we can forgive them once,twice or maximum thrice but not every time.KKR team don't deserve the win and i can not understand where the player like Dada,Gayle,Hussy,mc cullum,Dinda,Karthik,agarkar,and bond is in the team and they are losing losing and losing,whts rubbish.if we are comparing with any team which team is same as KKR.its very dificult to understand why they are not consistance to win?why they are depending on NRR or why they are seeing other's performance?why they are not trusting their streingths.wake up team Dada and SRK.there is something wrong with the team co-operation.Dada you need to take some serious action to reach the semis.rest is ur luck bye and take care with gud luck

  • Balu Tutika on April 14, 2010, 16:23 GMT

    I am a big big KKR fan. Unfortunately, things are not coming in Dada's way. It's not Sourav who let the team down..I don't know why SRK is still supporting mccullum. not only him, there r lot more players like mccullum.for next ipl pluck him from the squad and take in some worthy players..All the best for IPL4 SRK..

  • sol on April 14, 2010, 16:23 GMT

    yeah right? Suppose KKR wins their 2 last games and other games were rained out...KKR makes it. what a day dream!

  • Adnan Akram on April 14, 2010, 16:22 GMT

    At this stage, it seems kkr are fighting for the last position.Can they grab it from punjab

  • Yuvaraja on April 14, 2010, 16:21 GMT

    Really it's Good Strategy Man...We also keep positive hopes and goahead with rest of 2 games!!!

    Am Mentally a Ganguly Fan, So I will Surely KKR and where ever Ganguly plays...If it is Domestic too!!!

  • YUSUF on April 17, 2010, 11:09 GMT

    Journey over for kkr.they r not deserve to play in semis.it has been realy poor perfomence by kkr. ganguly play better but u just look at that his strike rare. its been not good at all.u juts look sachin, dravid kallis thier strike rate.and also biggest mistake they made is they dont open with mccullum.

  • kiran on April 14, 2010, 16:31 GMT

    ll it all up to dada srk and their team lets hope for the best . . .

  • Gyan Prakash on April 14, 2010, 16:29 GMT

    KKR's biggest mistake was dropping hodge and shah for bigger names. Shah was playing well and might have been more useful than mccullum and hussey.

  • sailesh on April 14, 2010, 16:29 GMT

    GANGULY is the only man in the entire team who is playing resonably in this series while gayle is so pleasing for his role. Mccullum, Hussey none of them are showing consistency. Mendis and Ishant can be thrown to trash. KKR should forget what they are and should win last two. Atleast I hope DADA Shouldn't face one more wrong umpiring decision.

  • Ramakanth on April 14, 2010, 16:25 GMT

    It is also possible even if rcb wins all the games...the only thing is chennai and deccan should lose all the remaining matches and kolkata must win the remaining matches..its not that difficult for kolkata still...they must pray for dd and punjab to win the remaining matches.

  • Ashish Mishra I Bank on April 14, 2010, 16:24 GMT

    I Don't know why the people are supporting KKR for their bad performance.we can forgive them once,twice or maximum thrice but not every time.KKR team don't deserve the win and i can not understand where the player like Dada,Gayle,Hussy,mc cullum,Dinda,Karthik,agarkar,and bond is in the team and they are losing losing and losing,whts rubbish.if we are comparing with any team which team is same as KKR.its very dificult to understand why they are not consistance to win?why they are depending on NRR or why they are seeing other's performance?why they are not trusting their streingths.wake up team Dada and SRK.there is something wrong with the team co-operation.Dada you need to take some serious action to reach the semis.rest is ur luck bye and take care with gud luck

  • Balu Tutika on April 14, 2010, 16:23 GMT

    I am a big big KKR fan. Unfortunately, things are not coming in Dada's way. It's not Sourav who let the team down..I don't know why SRK is still supporting mccullum. not only him, there r lot more players like mccullum.for next ipl pluck him from the squad and take in some worthy players..All the best for IPL4 SRK..

  • sol on April 14, 2010, 16:23 GMT

    yeah right? Suppose KKR wins their 2 last games and other games were rained out...KKR makes it. what a day dream!

  • Adnan Akram on April 14, 2010, 16:22 GMT

    At this stage, it seems kkr are fighting for the last position.Can they grab it from punjab

  • Yuvaraja on April 14, 2010, 16:21 GMT

    Really it's Good Strategy Man...We also keep positive hopes and goahead with rest of 2 games!!!

    Am Mentally a Ganguly Fan, So I will Surely KKR and where ever Ganguly plays...If it is Domestic too!!!

  • Manjunath on April 14, 2010, 16:21 GMT

    How on earth do u expect Bangalore, deccan and Chennai to lose all the games.Keep u r spirits high for next IPL.

  • Satyajit on April 14, 2010, 16:19 GMT

    I can provide a scenario (may be this is the only scenario) how KKR can go to the semis. The worse run-rate is the main disadvantage of KKR. The way today's match stands now, we can say Bangalore will win it. So Mumbai and Bangalore are thru. There are two spots left - theoretical contenders are Delhi, Deccan, Rajasthan, Chennai and KKR. i) KKR needs to win its next two games, so they will end up with pts 14 ii) To satisfy i) Rajasthan will obviously lose its last game with KKR, so Rajasthan will end up with 12 pts. They are out. iii)Chennai lost to Delhi and Punjab, so they will end up with 12 pts and out iv) Deccan lose to Punjab and Delhi, so they will end up with 12 pts and out v) So, KKR will end up with 14 and Delhi will end up with 16.

  • Mahe on April 14, 2010, 16:13 GMT

    This is exactly what is going to happen. You will see KKR will pull out their best in next two matches.

  • Aamir Khan on April 14, 2010, 16:05 GMT

    It was funny how in the first season of IPL SRK used to act like a headless chicken in the stands but since KKR started losing matches he does not even bother showing up! Well SRK should not be so disappointed at least KKR are good enough for comic relief :P

  • Md. Ariful Islam on April 14, 2010, 16:04 GMT

    nice to think that. But I think kkr will loss their remaining games too.

  • Shadowfox on April 14, 2010, 16:04 GMT

    Without Shane Bond KKR will definetly loose

  • Jamil on April 14, 2010, 16:03 GMT

    why they didn't try Mashrafee. None of thier international pace bowler did well. KKR spend a lot of money to buy Mashrafee and only used once. It doesn't make any sense............

  • Deepan on April 14, 2010, 16:00 GMT

    Kkr is a weight team..but there last 2 match thay lost..then 2 match kkr win the match with high runrate...kkr rocks

  • vivek on April 14, 2010, 15:59 GMT

    seems ,like bangalore will be winning 2day...but there is some other permutaion for KKR...delhi and RR loosing both matches,chennai,RCB,punjab win 1 each and Deccan and KKR winning their remaining fixture.In that case DC will go thru vth 16 and RCB,Chennai and KKR will be tied up on 14......:)) SLimmer of a hopo

  • manav on April 14, 2010, 15:57 GMT

    if all home teams win going forward - kkr makes it - assuming they fix their run rate in the process..does not seem so unlikely and extreme.

  • AlbhaR on April 14, 2010, 15:57 GMT

    Deccan have superb chance now to go thru into semis with thier win against rcb followed by chennais superb victory over kkr.All the thing they shuld do is jst win the other two matches.

  • brijesh on April 14, 2010, 15:54 GMT

    we know kkr is not the best team nor is it clicking its home talent is not up to mark international stars not performing dada as always flattering to decieve but not performing to win still we want them to win reach semis defies cricketing logic but such is HEART

  • Chatura Rasika on April 14, 2010, 15:46 GMT

    Good maths n calculations mate...bt lets face it...the way KKR is playing the likely scenario is that they would lose at least one of their next two, putting them out of contention for a semi-final berth. the best thing for KKR is to forget abt the points table n go out there n play to their potential n enjoy themselves. N hopefully as Ice cool said someone will play a blinder for them...Bt i hope that they won't get through to the semis cz they don't deserve it.. If u take the 3 yrs IPL, they've been the worst side by far..They lack quality players.. even the ones they hv aren't performing..N they hv had no leadership on the field.. Thought Dav whatmore n wasim akram wud be able to turn the tide, but they hvn't been able to...

  • Anonymous on April 14, 2010, 15:44 GMT

    Good maths n calculations mate...bt lets face it...the way KKR is playing the likely scenario is that they would lose at least one of their next two, putting them out of contention for a semi-final berth. the best thing for KKR is to forget abt the points table n go out there n play to their potential n enjoy themselves. N hopefully as Ice cool said someone will play a blinder for them...Bt i hope that they won't get through to the semis cz they don't deserve it.. If u take the 3 yrs IPL, they've been the worst side by far..They lack quality players.. even the ones they hv aren't performing..N they hv had no leadership on the field.. Thought Dav whatmore n wasim akram wud be able to turn the tide, but they hvn't been able to...

  • redHOT on April 14, 2010, 15:42 GMT

    it's obvious that KKR are not playing freely but are scared of their owner SRK whose real self is obvious now that he's in cricket - he seems like a megalomaniac and narcisisstic violent type of guy. Sourav is more sane and balanced.

    The problem is that they are not playing the right combinations - they were doing that the first 2 games - they needed to have stayed with ONE winning combination in order to get the native players confidence and momentum.

  • Mayur on April 14, 2010, 15:40 GMT

    Well, this effort must be appreciated. And all other results are possible in this format. Asking delhi, Punjab & Kolkata to win last two.

    And, if Bangalore wins today. But if RR wins today, then Mumbai will have to beat RCB in bangalore which is pretty possible.

    Great work man!!!

  • Ananth on April 14, 2010, 15:38 GMT

    Great! Now figure out a combination that will qualify Punjab for the semis, and you would've spent your time usefully.

  • shashi on April 14, 2010, 15:34 GMT

    kkr never win their last game bcz its against mumbai indians so its all over for them

  • Anonymous on April 14, 2010, 15:33 GMT

    it's a bad team which is beaten by the better teams. This is all cricket. So better to ask SRK to spend good money for good players and ask his advisors to pick good players for next season. KKR doesn't have any single matchwinner (we forgot the macculum knock at 2008 opener!!!). It's a bad team, mostly full with bad players. Don't believe they are out of form. They are just not capable or some had passed their golden period already long back.

  • marees on April 14, 2010, 15:30 GMT

    thanks for posting this analysis Rajesh. I think this is what sites like Cricinfo are for...

    To the other commenters, who are wondering if Rajesh is very jobless,... ...I dont think you need to be a fan of KKR/KingsXI to find out possibilities of how they can win. It is just a natural statistical curiosity which I feel is there in most followers of the game.

  • Unmesh on April 14, 2010, 15:27 GMT

    Well..there are other scenarios too. If Rajasthan,Chennai and Deccan lose all their remaining games (which is possible since they are not playing against each other in the remaining games), KKR can still be in semis without even considering the net run rate. Basically they would need a big favor from KXIP!!

  • Vivek Naidu on April 14, 2010, 15:26 GMT

    There is one more way. If Chennai, Rajasthan, and Deccan Losses all there matches then also Kolkata can make it into semifinal. If Delhi Win the match from Chennai and Deccan, Bangalore wins their remaing matches they both will be there in the 2nd & 3rd place respectively. If Kolkata beat Rajasthan and Mumbai (Crossing my fingers) then they will be the 4th Semi finalist with 14 points.

  • patrick on April 14, 2010, 15:16 GMT

    Good one, but even if things go as you predict, there's high chance of rain interrupting the match b/w KKR and RR, in any case there's seem to be something wrong within the KKR management, cant understand why did Vignesh was omitted through out...he was one of the good recruit from ICL, Lets face it KKR is a BAD team..apart from Ishant there's no one from the National team who is still in the reckoning, and on top of that the foreign players are also letting the team down...This team needs a sea change of composition in the upcoming IPL..SRK shouldnt retain any player apart from Bond, Gayle and McCullum.....rest are all rubbish and DADA should be in action off the field than in for KKR..

  • Kanad on April 14, 2010, 15:12 GMT

    I dont think it will happen and actually KKR does not deserve it . But like to comment on Nishad's comments how come you can write that its Sourav who had let KKR down..are you have any personal glitch with hom or what ..just baseless comment..

  • Bhanu K on April 14, 2010, 14:56 GMT

    There are 2 additional scenarios where KKR can make it without run rate comming into play. If CSK, RR and DC lose the rest of their matches and KKR wins both its matches then KKR will make it as the fourth team with the other 3 teams being MI, DD (16pts) and RCB. In this case the result between MI and RCB would not matter.

  • Avik Dutta Chowdhury on April 14, 2010, 14:54 GMT

    The same can also happen if Rajasthan lose both their matches. Then instead of Rajasthan Bangalore go thru along with Delhi, Mumbai and Kolkata

  • Vish on April 14, 2010, 14:51 GMT

    Dude .. its over from Kolkota perspective coz they have to beat mumbai :D and also all other equations has to be as u explained....!! i would say probability of one in 50!!

  • IceCool on April 14, 2010, 14:50 GMT

    as saurav said, first thing to do is play well and win, then think of semi-finals, kkr is just isnt playing well but they r losing badly, hardly any foreign player or indian player to take kkr to 2 wins specially with their record againts rr and mi... its possible but as saurav said, they need to play as unit and play well...

    also bangalore,deccan and chennai losing all matches sound asking 2 much, specially with rcb playing last game at home and chennai playing dd at home...

    for kkr, best is to go out and express themselves, forget the result, forget the points table... a mc-cullum innings like ipl2008 opener would just be the order of the day...

  • Anonymous on April 14, 2010, 14:49 GMT

    nice calculation man, but do you thing all these are possible? seems you are a big fan either kolkat,srk or ganguly......

  • KKR supporter on April 14, 2010, 14:49 GMT

    Unfortunately this will never happen my friend! If by some miracle Kolkata win both their matches, the other stuff will never ever happen.

  • marees on April 14, 2010, 14:46 GMT

    Just a twist to your prediction Rajesh.

    If Raj beat both RCB and KKR and everything else remains the same as you mentioned, then KingsXI can go thru if they drub Chennai and Deccan.

    Far Fetched, but I am not sure what are the margins of victory/run-rate required here.

  • Rake on April 14, 2010, 14:46 GMT

    More likely KKR will lose both it games.

  • Darvin on April 14, 2010, 14:45 GMT

    Wow Rajesh, thats intresting.

  • Nishad Gopal on April 14, 2010, 14:43 GMT

    What a beauty! You are a true KKR fan. But unfortunately it Saurav who let KKR and his team down. All of them are giving their best but somehow luck is evading them. Now that they are heavily beaten by CSK its even more difficult. NO WAY THEY ARE GOING TO MAKE IT TO THE FINAL 4.

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  • Nishad Gopal on April 14, 2010, 14:43 GMT

    What a beauty! You are a true KKR fan. But unfortunately it Saurav who let KKR and his team down. All of them are giving their best but somehow luck is evading them. Now that they are heavily beaten by CSK its even more difficult. NO WAY THEY ARE GOING TO MAKE IT TO THE FINAL 4.

  • Darvin on April 14, 2010, 14:45 GMT

    Wow Rajesh, thats intresting.

  • Rake on April 14, 2010, 14:46 GMT

    More likely KKR will lose both it games.

  • marees on April 14, 2010, 14:46 GMT

    Just a twist to your prediction Rajesh.

    If Raj beat both RCB and KKR and everything else remains the same as you mentioned, then KingsXI can go thru if they drub Chennai and Deccan.

    Far Fetched, but I am not sure what are the margins of victory/run-rate required here.

  • KKR supporter on April 14, 2010, 14:49 GMT

    Unfortunately this will never happen my friend! If by some miracle Kolkata win both their matches, the other stuff will never ever happen.

  • Anonymous on April 14, 2010, 14:49 GMT

    nice calculation man, but do you thing all these are possible? seems you are a big fan either kolkat,srk or ganguly......

  • IceCool on April 14, 2010, 14:50 GMT

    as saurav said, first thing to do is play well and win, then think of semi-finals, kkr is just isnt playing well but they r losing badly, hardly any foreign player or indian player to take kkr to 2 wins specially with their record againts rr and mi... its possible but as saurav said, they need to play as unit and play well...

    also bangalore,deccan and chennai losing all matches sound asking 2 much, specially with rcb playing last game at home and chennai playing dd at home...

    for kkr, best is to go out and express themselves, forget the result, forget the points table... a mc-cullum innings like ipl2008 opener would just be the order of the day...

  • Vish on April 14, 2010, 14:51 GMT

    Dude .. its over from Kolkota perspective coz they have to beat mumbai :D and also all other equations has to be as u explained....!! i would say probability of one in 50!!

  • Avik Dutta Chowdhury on April 14, 2010, 14:54 GMT

    The same can also happen if Rajasthan lose both their matches. Then instead of Rajasthan Bangalore go thru along with Delhi, Mumbai and Kolkata

  • Bhanu K on April 14, 2010, 14:56 GMT

    There are 2 additional scenarios where KKR can make it without run rate comming into play. If CSK, RR and DC lose the rest of their matches and KKR wins both its matches then KKR will make it as the fourth team with the other 3 teams being MI, DD (16pts) and RCB. In this case the result between MI and RCB would not matter.