Super Eights, World Twenty20

What teams need to do to progress to semis

S Rajesh

October 1, 2012

Comments: 77 | Text size: A | A

The semi-finalists from Group 1 have been decided, but three out of four teams in Group 2 still have a chance to make the cut, going into the final round of matches on Tuesday. Here's what each team needs to do to qualify:

AB de Villiers shakes hands with Daniel Vettori after the defeat, New Zealand v South Africa, 3rd quarter-final, Mirpur, World Cup 2011, March 25, 2011
New Zealand and South Africa have both been knocked out of the race for the semi-finals © Getty Images

Group 2

Like Pakistan, India too need to win to have any realistic chance of qualification. If India concede 160 and lose by more than three runs, their NRR will slip below that of South Africa. If India and Pakistan both win their matches, the margins of those results will decide which team goes through.

Update after Australia-Pakistan match: India need to beat South Africa by at least 32 runs if they score 160 (and by at least 31 if they score 140) to finish with an NRR higher than Pakistan's. If India end up chasing, they need to win with at least 24 balls to spare. If they achieve that, they'll knock Pakistan out, and the actual margin of victory will determine which of India or Australia finish on top. If they don't achieve those margins, Pakistan will qualify.

Pakistan's defeat to India - and the margin of that loss - has put their semi-final hopes in danger. Their NRR has dropped to -0.426, which is only marginally better than those of India and South Africa. If Pakistan lose to Australia, an Indian win will knock them out without NRR playing any part. Even if South Africa beat India in this scenario, Pakistan's chances remain bleak: if they lose their match by five runs (chasing 161), and if South Africa score 160 and beat India by the same margin, then Pakistan's NRR will be poorer than South Africa's.

Pakistan's passage is not straightforward even if they beat Australia. Even after winning, they'll have to hope that India don't beat South Africa by a bigger margin and sneak past them. If, for example, both Pakistan and India score 160 and win their last matches by ten runs, then Pakistan's NRR will be marginally lower than India's.

Update after Australia-Pakistan match: Pakistan finish with an NRR of 0.273. If India lose to South Africa, or if they beat them by relatively small margins (explained above), then Pakistan will go through as the second team in the group.

With two huge wins in as many matches, Australia are the best-placed team in the tournament. For them to go out, both Pakistan and India will have to win their matches by around 40 runs (if they bat first and score 160).

Update after Australia-Pakistan match: Though Australia lost to Pakistan, their NRR of 0.464 is higher than that of Pakistan, which means at worst they will finish second in the group. They are thus definitely through to the semi-finals.

South Africa
South Africa are the only team that can be knocked out even before their match starts. For the second time in a row, they will be hoping Pakistan lose because if Pakistan win the first match on Tuesday, it will mean curtains for South Africa.

However, if Australia do beat Pakistan, South Africa have a fair chance of making it to the next round, thanks to poor NRRs of India and Pakistan. As mentioned above, if South Africa score 160 and win by more than three runs, their NRR will go above India's, enough to qualify provided Australia have won all their matches. The advantage for South Africa and India is that they play the last game of the group, and will thus have an exact knowledge of what they need to do to qualify.

Update after Australia-Pakistan match: South Africa are out of contention for a semi-final slot.

Group 1

Sri Lanka
With two wins in two matches, Sri Lanka are sitting pretty: not only do they have four points, their net run rate is also a comfortable 1.029. The only way for them to be eliminated is if they lose to England, and if West Indies beat New Zealand, with both matches being decided by big margins. For example, if England score 160 and beat Sri Lanka by 30 runs, and if West Indies score 160 and beat New Zealand by the same margin, then England and West Indies will qualify with better NRRs than Sri Lanka. However, the likelihood of both margins being such large ones is extremely small.

Updated after the WI-NZ match: Sri Lanka are through unless they lose very badly. If England score 170 and bowl Sri Lanka out for 110, then Sri Lanka's NRR will drop below both England and West Indies. Most likely, though, they've booked a place in the last four.

England's defeat against West Indies pegged them back, but they recovered well to beat New Zealand, and their NRR is the best among all teams after Sri Lanka. A victory against Sri Lanka, and a win for New Zealand against West Indies, will definitely see England through. However, if West Indies win, England will have to make sure they beat Sri Lanka by a sufficient margin to ensure their NRR is above that of West Indies.

On the other hand, if England lose and if New Zealand beat West Indies, then three teams will be level on two points. In that scenario, New Zealand will almost certainly sneak ahead of England on NRR: for example, even if New Zealand score 160 and win by five runs, and England, chasing 160, lose by five, New Zealand's NRR will be higher.

England's advantage is that they'll be playing the last match of the group, which will give them an exact knowledge of what they need to do to qualify.

Updated after the WI-NZ match: England need to win to qualify, as their NRR is already better than that of West Indies. If they lose, they're out.

West Indies
The ideal result for West Indies will be for them to beat New Zealand, and for Sri Lanka to beat England, which will ensure West Indies qualify without run rates coming into play. A defeat will definitely knock West Indies out because of their poor NRR, but even a win may not be enough if England beat Sri Lanka. For instance, if West Indies score 160 and win by 25 runs, England will need to win their match by only eight runs to keep their NRR above West Indies'.

Updated after the WI-NZ match: West Indies need England to lose, or to beat Sri Lanka by around 60 runs. If England win by a smaller margin, then West Indies will be knocked out.

New Zealand
New Zealand are currently at the bottom of the group, but their NRR is a decent -0.268, thanks to their Super Over defeat against Sri Lanka. As mentioned earlier, if they beat West Indies by as little as five runs, and if Sri Lanka beat England by the same margin (with the winning teams in each game scoring 160), then New Zealand's NRR will be better than those of England and West Indies. Thus, even though New Zealand haven't won a match yet in the Super Eights, they have plenty to play for in their last game.

Updated after the WI-NZ match: With three losses in the Super Eights, New Zealand have been knocked out.

S Rajesh is stats editor of ESPNcricinfo. Follow him on Twitter

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Posted by   on (October 2, 2012, 0:01 GMT)

India will beat australia in the final

Posted by indiafan76 on (October 1, 2012, 23:38 GMT)

Based on how the NRR possibilities line up, here are the likely scenarios: AUS go thru in almost all cases. a) If Pak win, they will go thru if India loose to SA. b) If Pak win, India will go thru with a win over SA with a better win. c) If Pak loose, winner of India vs SA will almost certainly go thru.

Posted by indiafan76 on (October 1, 2012, 23:32 GMT)

For Pak to qualify, Pak has to win and hope India don't have a better win. Pak has almost no chance if they loose. Whoever wins between Ind or SA will overtake them on NRR very easily.

Here is the scenario for India to Qualify: 1) Aus win vs Pak: India can qualify by winning against SA or by loosing to SA by not more than 3 runs or with 1-2 balls to spare. This will keep them above SA in NRR and also above Pak assuming Pak didn't loose by less than 2 runs 2) Pak win vs Aus: India has to win against SA and have a better win compared to Pakistan's win by 1 ball or 2 runs.

If both India & Pakistan win their matches, it is unlikely that Aus will loose out on NRR (Pak has to beat them by 40 runs to do that). So it will be between Ind and Pak on NRR (Scenario#2 outlined above).

I have taken scores of 120-180 in these calculations.

Posted by abdul sattar on (October 1, 2012, 22:59 GMT)

pakistan first make changes,1hafeez,2nasir,3asad,4umerakmal,5malik,6kamran,7abdulrazaq,8afridi,9gul,10ajmal,11raza,best batting lineup .in bowling ply aggressive to remove watson and warner must bowl 2 overs of ajmal in first 6 with razaq and raza,then gul must bowl after 6.bowling overs,1.razaq,2.ajmal,3.razaq,4.ajmal,5.raza,6ajmal,7.gul,8raza,9gul,10raza,11afridi,12raza,13.afridi,14.razaq,15afridi,16gul,17afridi,18gul,19ajmal,20razaq.

Posted by BG4cricket on (October 1, 2012, 22:41 GMT)

Well it looks like AUS vs WI in one semi with SL playing I think Sth Africa (yes I know it would be a miracle but can't see India or Pakistan winning tonight) INCOMING :)

Posted by   on (October 1, 2012, 22:16 GMT)

Can someone explain to me what does the 160 score mean? why is that important? and what happens if SA scores under that, then how many runs do they need to win by then?

Posted by Buggsy on (October 1, 2012, 21:47 GMT)

I can't see Pakistan winning against Australia. Cummins, Starc and Watson will rip their batting to shreds.

Posted by CaptainKool on (October 1, 2012, 21:23 GMT)

Wow! Can't believe SA still have a chance. It will be disastrous for tournament, India and pak if they qualify. First time I think India and Pak won't be there in semis.

Posted by   on (October 1, 2012, 21:17 GMT)

@Umair Khan - This is correct. The reason is Pakistan's denominators i.e. number of overs played and number of overs bowled are more than India. So same performance (assuming both win by the same margin) will have more impact (of course positive) on India NRR. That is the reason NRR swings a lot towards the begining of the tournament. So Pakistan need to beat Australia say by 20 runs and hope that India do not beat South Africa by more than 15 runs. I hope this clarifies.

Posted by   on (October 1, 2012, 20:11 GMT)

To be honest, I would say australia deseve to go through to the semi finals, and south africa do not, given how the tournament has panned out. So the real dilemma is between either pakistan or india going through with australia. I would back india, especially since their game is the second one, and how dismal south africa have been so far. But I wouldn't write off Pakistan either, Australia have indeed peaked too early, and they may a bit overconfident going into this match. A misfiring top order, and australia may be in trouble against Pakistani spin.

Posted by   on (October 1, 2012, 19:43 GMT)

S. Rajesh missed most important scenario for pakistan to reach the semi final , It rains all the day

Posted by tallu31 on (October 1, 2012, 19:32 GMT)

today is a big day for three top t20 teams; wanted to see pak and ind in semis but its almost impossible. India is in form team and pakistan is an exciting one. Today's 6 hours will be awesome for all the asian fans best of luck for both the teams. we love you both.

Posted by Zamana on (October 1, 2012, 19:22 GMT)

Hoping that Pakistan progresses to the SF. The Australian batting is top heavy and if confronted with spin will falter. Raza will be a key factor. The Aus middle order is suspect against spin. I hope Pakistan realize the importance of this game and play with aggression.

Posted by   on (October 1, 2012, 19:06 GMT)

Frankly i'm actually laughing the way the table has matched out, all group toppers are in 1 group in the Super 8's....

Also the margin for loss between India and Pak makes so no both team can lose by 5 or 3 runs.?

Awww man I'll be in Uni all day missing both matches! :(

Posted by Nampally on (October 1, 2012, 18:58 GMT)

SL & WI have already qualified in Group 1. It is the Group 2 teams fighting it out tomorrow.It is amazing that a strong SA lost to Pakistan with such a low total in batting. For India to advance, they must beat South Africa. That is all India need to focus. Can India reproduce the same team work & contributions from all which got the Pakistan out cheaply? T 20 is a strange format in which any team can win on their "good" day!. As an Indian supporter I am hoping it will be a good day for India to beat SA. On the other hand the Aussies have shown that every day is good day for them. So their match against Pakistan, appears to be more predictable than the India vs. SA Match. An exciting day is ahead & in T-20 tables can turn topsy turvy in a blink of eye.

Posted by voyager on (October 1, 2012, 18:31 GMT)

Lets just keep it simple, and beat Australia 'big' like the first game of recent series and push them below!:)

Posted by ProdigyA on (October 1, 2012, 18:15 GMT)

SL have come on top in the group of minnows. Good stratergy by the organisers. But unfortunately they will not be successful beyond semis where they will meet a much more talented and worthy competetor from the other group. If it is India they surely SL can pack their bags considering their poor record against India at home and away.

Posted by Resultpredictor on (October 1, 2012, 18:14 GMT)

India vs South Africa is going to be a quarterfinal match, as Pakistan is knocked out of this World cup because Pakistan's defeat against Australia is confirmed. So good luck to South Africa and India.

Posted by   on (October 1, 2012, 18:06 GMT)

How can an identical margin for victory for both Ind and Pak take India's RR past Pakistan's?

Posted by keecha on (October 1, 2012, 17:32 GMT)

@ Altamsh Shafi - Of course only either of them can win a game, unless you invent a 3 way match where 2 could win.

Posted by   on (October 1, 2012, 16:50 GMT)

either Pakistan or Australia should win it inshallah!!!!!!!!!!

Posted by SamAsh07 on (October 1, 2012, 16:35 GMT)

The World T20 is in SL, the organizers definitely wanted SL to win the cup or atleast get an easy passage to the semis with all weak teams against them. Had SL gone to the other group, it would've been curtains for them against Ind, Pak and Aus.

Posted by Vikum72 on (October 1, 2012, 16:18 GMT)

@Siva Kumar: The make up of the super 8 groups were published even before the tournament began. Didn't see you complaining then! Also on what basis are you saying all the week teams are in the other group? Just one game did the trick for you is it? The grass always looks greener on the other side, haven't you heard?

Posted by   on (October 1, 2012, 16:11 GMT)

very interesting scenario...

Posted by   on (October 1, 2012, 15:51 GMT)

I hope it rains & both the matches are washed out. Through you go Pakistan!

Posted by Obaidchamp on (October 1, 2012, 15:21 GMT)

I am so confused with this net run late thing and I think there is some error in this article. Pakistan have won many a time from similar conditions. I wish they can do it again and I hope this time Shahid Afridi performs and idea to send him early was a good one. But now we should go with razzaq and Asad shafiq instead of Yasir and nazir or malik and Saeed will go some damage InshaALLAH> and Young Raza will surely surprise the aussis wish to see a India Pak final but as its quiet difficult hope at-lest Pakistan wins and go through in the semis

Posted by GIRIDHARirfan on (October 1, 2012, 15:04 GMT)

i think every team's spectator comments have hatred full for india. i seriously dont understand why. i think india has had just one bad game as compared to pak and so basically india and aussies deserv to be in semis. but pak z an exciting team. love to see them play . especially ajmal. i just love his smile.. and i am an indian

Posted by MashoodMustafa on (October 1, 2012, 15:03 GMT)

Dont know why hafeez is opening the innings whn he doesnt have the strike rate reqd in this format. My playing eleven with their batting orders is as follows: Imran, Jamshed, Umar, Hafeez, Akmal, Malik, Afridi, Razzaq, Ajmal, Gul, Raza

Posted by   on (October 1, 2012, 15:02 GMT)

THE PRELIMINARY GROUP TOPPERS ARE ALL IN THE SAME GROUP IN SUPER-EIGHTS!? ICC truly has a bunch of jokers managing the organization!

Posted by adnan.alavi on (October 1, 2012, 15:00 GMT)

I agree planning of groups was very poor, each pool should have 2 top team and two second place qualifiers with option of carrying forward group 1 points with them... Giving 360 chance to every team...

Posted by ddlj26 on (October 1, 2012, 14:37 GMT)

For all the wise minds in this page.... the chance of rain tomorrow is negligible, so lets leave that scenario of matches getting washed out off the scenario.... Ideally Being an indian fan i would want a Pak loss to ease our chances of making super 8 a little easier, but regardless SA are going to be one tough nut to crack tomorrow.... India has to play their best cricket to beat them..... I would say the only change i would like to see for tomorrow's game for india is Zaheer being replaced by Harbhajan or piyush chawla because i know SA there is no player like warner or watson to clobber our spinners and i believe spinners will come into the picture big time against SA just like it did against England... lets see what changes dhoni comes up with

Posted by callous381 on (October 1, 2012, 14:29 GMT)

I don't get one thing, if Pakistan's NRR is better than India's NRR right now and we both win our matches by same margin, how does India end up having better NRR after that? Simple math states if one team is ahead of the other team and then both teams win by same margin, the team which was originally ahead, will stay ahead on NRR. Also as per my calculation, if above scenario is applied i.e. both India and Pak score 160 and win by 10 runs then Pak NRR will be 0.073 and India NRR will be 0.047. I believe S Rajesh got this one wrong. Please correct :)

Posted by immi2711 on (October 1, 2012, 14:06 GMT)

Being a Pak fan, it takes great pleasure to say, that Pakistan does not deserve to be in the semis....As a matter of fact, Pak & India should be sent home packing. They do not deserve to be in the semis, NZ has played better than them to deserve a spot. Shame on Pak & India to have such poor showing in the subcontinent pitches...

Posted by pitch_curator on (October 1, 2012, 13:31 GMT)

The way the super 8 matches in group 2 have panned out till now, I do not see any of the two remaining matches being close. Someone is going to win big and someone is going to get caned.I hope it is India who thrash SAF but Australia have played brilliantly and are due to an off day...

Posted by   on (October 1, 2012, 12:56 GMT)

@ nikheelkumar16 . If you want to make a very simple equation, how about this: Both matches on 2nd October are rain washed and India confirm their flight back to their home country :)

Posted by itwarkhan on (October 1, 2012, 12:45 GMT)

West indies for the finals..................

Posted by   on (October 1, 2012, 12:42 GMT)


Posted by Glorizee on (October 1, 2012, 12:18 GMT)

Even if Pak fails to make it to semis, I strongly support my other Global Team -- Sri Lanka to win the Final and take the T20 CROWN. What if Pak dropped, Go Sri Lanka, Go and crush those indians .. We love you Sri Lankan Tigers! The champions of 2012.

Posted by Kumail_Asadi on (October 1, 2012, 12:10 GMT)

What are the scenarios to Out Australia from the race of Semi? I want to see Pakistan and India in Semi Semi final Pak vs Nz, India vs lanka Final Pak vs India....Pak beaten India by 5 wickets. I think that will be the best revenge of all world cup losses. Wish to see ;) Pakistan Zindabad

Posted by   on (October 1, 2012, 12:09 GMT)

Right now the difference of run rate between Pakistan is -0.28(Thats a difference of almost 2 balls), means if India can score faster than Pakistan by just 2 balls less played, they can easily go to Semis! on the other hand 0.28 means a difference of 6 runs! means, batting First India has to win by more than 6 runs to get over Pakistan! and ANALYSIS are wrong, if they lose or win by the same margin, Pakistan has the edge! their NRR would be 0.11 above India! India has scored FOR 269 and AGIANST 269 as well, The "FOR" score was accomplished in 37 overs while the AGAINST was accomplished in 34.5 overs(This 0.5 equals to 0.85 in TEN system). so the difference is -0.452...while Pakistan scored 264 in 39.4(again 0.4 is considered as 0.65) so the difference is beat this difference India has to have a 6 run win/lost over South Africa exactly according to the result of Pakistan! Pakistan loses,,india shouldn't lose more than 6 runs! Pakistan wins, India must win by more than 6

Posted by   on (October 1, 2012, 12:03 GMT)

How big a margin do Pak have to beat the Aussies by to achieve a net run rate which is better than Australia??

Posted by henchart on (October 1, 2012, 12:01 GMT)

Matches ought to be played simultaneously at Super 8 stage to prevent manipulation by the teams playing last or for that matter giving them unfair advantage of knowing beforehand what they need to do.For eg India and SA are better placed schedule wise than Aus and Pak.Knowing Aus they would not lower their guard but Pakistan's spin attack can test Aussies once Warner-Watson-Hussey trio is overcome.But the problem is matches are over before that happens!

Posted by HJ_SL on (October 1, 2012, 11:58 GMT)

In my opinion WI,NZ,IND and ENG are heavily depend on Gayle, McCullum, Kohli and Wright. SL and AUS probably with their top 3. SA and PAk, I do not know how to describe their batting. On the other hand Pak & SL have good variety in their bowling. but all others heavily depend on Watson, Narine, Ashwin, Swann, Vettory and Stain. So, in their good day, any of them can change the game and take them in to a winning position. But, Aus and SL have 75% chance to be in final because they have more match winners in their team. NZ, IND might have better chance to be in semis along with SL and AUS.

Posted by   on (October 1, 2012, 11:54 GMT)

The people here who are saying that writer did mistake, dont know how to calculate NRR. They should know how NRR works, you need calculators and equations to solve it, you cannot do it in your mind. Writer has not done any mistake, if Pak and India lose by same margin, india will have a better NRR.

Posted by   on (October 1, 2012, 11:47 GMT)

Pak will qualify...they wil beat Australia like they did in first t20 of the series held in Dubai recently...nd wil shatter all da hopes of Indians :p Go greeen...

Posted by pitch_curator on (October 1, 2012, 11:46 GMT)

@ Manojin -- Group 2 is the tougher one because it has the winners of the 4 groups in the prelims. As simple as that.

Posted by rahulcricket007 on (October 1, 2012, 11:45 GMT)


Posted by kkk999 on (October 1, 2012, 11:44 GMT)

well without any doubt australia and sri lanka already have their one foot in the semis.... and talking about the other two it should be pakistan and west indies... i dont think india will be able 2 handle the south african pace attack... and a australia- sri lanka final will be great 2 watch...

Posted by   on (October 1, 2012, 11:40 GMT)

@ Kaleem Ullah: That's the beauty of the NRRs. It is not necessarily so because it also depends on the runs scored by teams and the overs played. It is because India scored 140 and Pakisthan only 133 in their other matches, this happens. It is always better to work with the calculator than orally in case of NRRs. It gives you false impression.

Posted by Chris_P on (October 1, 2012, 11:38 GMT)

@Manojin. "I definitely know Aus are scared of SL than any other opponent." I will let you in on a little secret. Australia is not nor have ever been of anyone, so not sure how you definitely know that one. Try to gain an understandign of our culture before insulting us like that.

Posted by   on (October 1, 2012, 11:14 GMT)

I think there is mistake in calculations, You said: "If, for example, both Pakistan and India score 160 and win their last matches by ten runs, then Pakistan's NRR will be marginally lower than India's."

Pak current NRR is better than India, If they win by SAME margin, Pak NRR should remain better and they will qualify.

Posted by   on (October 1, 2012, 10:58 GMT)

@AwazChat Pakistan Ai : Australia is far more professional outfit than you think and always look to win at any cost in even dead rubber matches.

Posted by mfmfaiq on (October 1, 2012, 10:57 GMT)


Posted by   on (October 1, 2012, 10:52 GMT)

Really Tough for men in green; but how can PAK's RR be poorer to India if they both Win by same margin, writer got it wrong here :) May Cricket wins!

Posted by MichaelBurton on (October 1, 2012, 10:49 GMT)

I hope Aus and Pak will go in to semis along with SL and WI.

Posted by nikheelkumar16 on (October 1, 2012, 10:48 GMT)

A Simple equation

Australia beat competition Pakistan and rain washes out the match India vs South Africa 1 point each and India progress to SF!!!!....hahahah

Anyways.... Hoping for some fierce competition from all the teams...

Posted by MichaelBurton on (October 1, 2012, 10:47 GMT)

@Romanticstud: What basis you say group 2 is the toughest group? Is that because of Big names in cricket. In terms of T20 ranking 1st and 3rd ranks are in group 1. Even in warm up matches, England beat both the Aus and Pak. Even before the T20 world cup start Eng, SL and WI were tournament favourites along with Aus and SA. You people afraid of Aus? Is that the reason? If somehow Aus in group 1, would you say the same? Teams in group 1 themselves didn't ask to ut in that group. This was created based on the ranking at that time. It changes from match to match. Thats how SL and Eng are ranked 1st and 3rd. Are you representing a very timid, fearful country who afraid of big names? I definitely know Aus are scared of SL than any other opponent.

Posted by   on (October 1, 2012, 10:35 GMT)

Pakistan's chances are very rare, even if they beat aussies , coz India will plan how to beat SA with having better run rate, and I am sur if Pakistan have won, SA will be heart broken and they will give up the game, and India have all the chances..I do support Pakistan, But they have lost both the games of super 8s in my opinion, as it was Umar Gul's cameo that saved them , but they have loosed their run rate, and they will bring it down more if their batting collasped again againsta Aussies..

Posted by   on (October 1, 2012, 10:27 GMT)

WHT IF AUSTRALIA LOST TO PAK BADLY TO KEEP INDIA AND SOUTH AFRICA OUT OF T20 CUP!just like pak did in 2010 wc and knocked out india :D

Posted by aasims on (October 1, 2012, 10:23 GMT)

Pakistan will go through the semi....Inshallah

Posted by Romanticstud on (October 1, 2012, 10:04 GMT)

The format of this T20 competition is absurd ... Why seed the teams? ... T20 is a lottery ... yes ... in the case of the results in the 1st phase one would have seen ... based on results alone the following groups ... Group A ... India, West Indies, South Africa, New Zealand ... Group B ... England, Australia, Sri Lanka, Pakistan .... but because of the seedings ... Group B was extremely tough ... the group of death ... South Africa, Australia, Pakistan and India ... granted Sri-Lanka, England, West Indies, New Zealand can do damage on their day ... but then it would be an easier passage for Sri-Lanka to reach the semi-finals ... and also avoid Australia untiol then ... results would have them play Australia to get there ... Imagine a tournament in soccer where Spain, Brazil, Protugal and Germany were in one group and Russia, England, Netherlands and Sweden ... Which group would you play in?

Posted by Faridoon on (October 1, 2012, 10:02 GMT)

This really is the most wide open world tournament ever!

The timings of the Group 2 games do not favor Pakistan at all. If they beat Australia , then SA is out. SA will, hence, have little motivation to beat India, who would have a good chance of winning by the margin required to progress!

So maybe Pakistan has a better chance of getting to the semi-final if they lose to Australia and SA beats India provided the net run rates are favorable.

Posted by Aziz_Hassan_Sangra on (October 1, 2012, 10:00 GMT)

What an open event so for :-) Whichever team wins but what a fantastic and competitive display so for. As a Pak supporter I wish to see SL, NZ, AUS & PAK in the top four.

Posted by Deelo on (October 1, 2012, 9:59 GMT)

S Rajesh

Pakistan is on No. 2 as per the NRR but i can not understand how Pakistan's NRR will be poorer than South Africa's. IF SA beat India , Pakistan's chances remain bleak: if they lose their match by five runs (chasing 161), and if South Africa score 160 and beat India by the same margin South Africa run rate will be better and they will qualify. South Africa is at No. 4 and their NRR IS -0.6 the margin of score is same and still pak NRR is low?

Posted by   on (October 1, 2012, 9:51 GMT)

"If, for example, both Pakistan and India score 160 and win their last matches by ten runs, then Pakistan's NRR will be marginally lower than India's. "

this is wrong.. if both pak and india win by the same margin. pak will go through as they have better NRR..

Posted by Kharc11 on (October 1, 2012, 9:47 GMT)

Group A: SriLanka & West Indies Group : Autralia & India

Semifinal : SL Vs India Aus Vs WI

Final : Inda Vs WI

Winner : india

jai Ho !! ;)

Posted by vikivivek on (October 1, 2012, 9:44 GMT)

A perfect competition going on! All the top teams competing for the semi final spot :) Though its a T20, its a treat for all cricket lovers! May the best teams reach semi finals.

Posted by Hashmi1981 on (October 1, 2012, 9:43 GMT)

A tough task but Hopefully Pakistan will go through. Not all days are bad for a team as we have yesterday. Fingers crossed and Hope for the Best.

Posted by   on (October 1, 2012, 9:41 GMT)

wow love d scenario <3 ✿◕ ‿ ◕✿

Posted by Vaidya on (October 1, 2012, 9:34 GMT)

Too good analysis!!! Clears the picture

Posted by calcu on (October 1, 2012, 9:34 GMT)

this is an excellent article.

Posted by   on (October 1, 2012, 9:32 GMT)

Too much ifs and butts with calculations involved here just because of poor format/groups decided by ICC. Ideally all 4 teams in group 2 should have been playing semies of this WC.

Posted by allieeb on (October 1, 2012, 9:29 GMT)

wishful thinking on part of South Africa......They do NOT deserve to go any further in this tournament......'cough'Proteas'cough' Where is I Tahir player of the tournament in 2011WC....

Posted by i_witnessed_2011 on (October 1, 2012, 9:18 GMT)

I am surprised you have used 160 as the score for all scenarios.but as the tournament is progressing 140-150 is the maximum score that batting first team is able to score. I do not think this pattern will change in coming matches.

Posted by   on (October 1, 2012, 9:16 GMT)

... wow, tomorrow will be a tough day for cricketers and fans... everyone, hold your nerves and enjoy the day...

Posted by YJEHSAN on (October 1, 2012, 9:12 GMT)

Pakistan Team should pack their bags now

Posted by sakthivelsundaresan on (October 1, 2012, 9:11 GMT)

Oh! Well. Surely not an unfamiliar situation to India. You can see them in same position in all events where big teams involved. But why South Africa ? Man I just can not imagine the fact that they are going to be knocked out of this. Will they ever come out of their 'Choker' status. I just feel pity for that team.

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S Rajesh Stats editor Every week the Numbers Game takes a look at the story behind the stats, with an original slant on facts and figures. The column is edited by S Rajesh, ESPNcricinfo's stats editor in Bangalore. He did an MBA in marketing, and then worked for a year in advertising, before deciding to chuck it in favour of a job which would combine the pleasures of watching cricket and writing about it. The intense office cricket matches were an added bonus.
Tournament Results
Sri Lanka v West Indies at Colombo (RPS) - Oct 7, 2012
West Indies won by 36 runs
Australia v West Indies at Colombo (RPS) - Oct 5, 2012
West Indies won by 74 runs
Sri Lanka v Pakistan at Colombo (RPS) - Oct 4, 2012
Sri Lanka won by 16 runs
India v South Africa at Colombo (RPS) - Oct 2, 2012
India won by 1 run
Australia v Pakistan at Colombo (RPS) - Oct 2, 2012
Pakistan won by 32 runs
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