Toss, dew in focus as South Africa eye rare double

The last time India lost both the Test and ODI series as part of the same bilateral tour was in South Africa in 2021-22. At home, though, India haven't lost both the series of a tour since Pakistan beat them 1-0 in Tests and 5-1 in ODIs in 1986-87.

South Africa go into Vishakapatnam with a chance of achieving that rare double. It is evident by now that it could well come down to the toss. The dew anyway plays a big part in ODIs in India, which is now getting accentuated by use of only one ball from overs 34 to 50. The side bowling in the afternoon gets the advantage of using an older, softer ball, which gets nullified in the dew in the night. South Africa won the last ODI despite being 35 behind India at the 34-over mark, which is when the fielding side gets to choose one of the two balls to bowl the rest of the innings with.

Given such a premium on the toss, India will be desperate that they finally win one after 20 straight losses. The last time India won a toss in ODIs was in the semi-final of the last World Cup, and we are already talking about combinations for the next World Cup.

The teams will have no option but to maximise the new ball in the afternoon and go for an above-par total for the conditions they are batting in. And then maximise the new ball in the evening before it stops moving. India managed to do both of those things in Ranchi, but only one in Raipur. It will be interesting to see if South Africa have capability to do both, but for that India will have to win the toss.

India: LWWLL (last five completed ODIs, most recent first)
South Africa: WLLWL

Virat Kohli has gone back to back with centuries 11 times in his career. He has converted one of those into a hat-trick. Three centuries in one week. One of them came at his favourite venue, Vishakapatnam, where he comes back with four ODI hundreds and one Test ton to his name. He averages 97.83 there in ODIs at better than a run a ball. He has also scored 299 Test runs there for three dismissals. The form that he seems to have hit, you won't want to bet against another hat-trick of ODI hundreds.

Marco Jansen, who is staking claims to becoming a genuine allrounder, will still want to do more in his core discipline of bowling than four wickets at an average of 34.75 and an economy rate of 6.95. If Nandre Burger doesn't recover in time, he could get the new ball and look to play a role in controlling Kohli and Rohit Sharma.

India will have no reason to make any changes in the XI that has won one and narrowly lost the second despite losing both tosses. Especially after Ruturaj Gaikwad scored a hundred that almost matched Kohli shot for shot. Prasidh Krishna is going at 8.48 an over, but India don't have a replacement bowler in the squad. And they won't replace a specialist bowler with an allrounder.

India (probable): 1 Yashasvi Jaiswal, 2 Rohit Sharma, 3 Virat Kohli, 4 Ruturaj Gaikwad, 5 KL Rahul (capt. & wk), 6 Washington Sundar, 7 Ravindra Jadeja, 8 Harshit Rana, 9 Kuldeep Yadav, 10 Arshdeep Singh, 11 Prasidh Krishna

South Africa had two players go down with hamstring injuries in the second ODI. Neither of them played any further role in the match. Hamstrings don't heal this quickly so expect Burger and Tony de Zorzi to be replaced by Ottneil Baartman and Ryan Rickelton.

South Africa (probable): 1 Aiden Markram, 2 Quinton de Kock (wk), 3 Temba Bavuma (capt.), 4 Matthew Breetzke, 5 Ryan Rickelton, 6 Dewald Brevis, 7 Marco Jansen, 8 Corbin Bosch, 9 Keshav Maharaj, 10 Lungi Ngidi, 11 Ottneil Baartman

The last two ODIs represent the extreme of the conditions in Vishakapatnam. India went from scoring 387 against West Indies in December 2019 to being bowled out for 117 against Australia in March 2023. With no weather challenges in the pitch preparation, expect more of the former. The temperature should be warmer than Ranchi and Raipur, but still pleasant for cricket.