Yasir doubt can't dent Pakistan confidence

October 13-17, 2015
Start time 10am local (0600 GMT)

In January 2012, England travelled to play Pakistan as the No. 1 Test nation in the world, armed with what they believed was as well balanced a team as they could muster to compete in the heat of the United Arab Emirates. They had grinders and flair players in their batting ranks, a stable of impressive and varied quicks and, in Graeme Swann and Monty Panesar, a spin duo to rival any that the game could then offer.

And yet, the Test squad departed, little more than a month later, wiser and humbler for the experience. They created opportunities to compete throughout the series, particularly in the second and third Tests, but ended up losing all three matches, thanks largely to the wiles of Saeed Ajmal. His flight, guile and movement both ways chained a tentative line-up to their creases and, with DRS offering little respite to anyone using their pads as a second line of defence, England accumulated the lion's share of a world record-equalling 43 lbws in the series.

Three-and-a-half years later, there's no Ajmal - the ICC's biomechanists have seen to that - but there's little expectation either. For all that they travel as Ashes winners, the erratic nature of England's recent record (see below) coupled with Pakistan's formidable record in their home-from-home means that a stern lesson in desert warfare is most likely on the cards this time around.

James Anderson, the leader of a seam attack that could hardly have done more to keep England competitive in the 2012 series, has warned of the need to eliminate looseners in the ferocious temperatures. Short spells on flat tracks with a dog-eared Kookaburra ball, against a Pakistan line-up adept at exhausting their opponents through crease occupation before flogging their bowlers with often stunning injections of tempo (see Misbah-ul-Haq's 56-ball century against Australia last year). It's not going to be a challenge for faint hearts.

(last five completed matches, most recent first)
Pakistan WLWWD
England LWWLW

Opinion is divided as to the wisdom of promoting a spin-bowling No. 8 to open the batting in a Test match, but where England's selection in the past has tended towards the dogmatic, the unique challenges of the UAE have encouraged Trevor Bayliss and his think-tank to embrace the pragmatic this time around. And so it is that Moeen Ali, a luxury presence during the Ashes, has been handed the ultimate uber-promotion.

Quite how he'll cope if required to bowl 40 overs in 50-degree heat then strap on his pads minutes later is anyone's guess, but suffice to say he'll take it all in his phlegmatic stride. Besides, with the ball likely to ping off the bat for ten overs at the start of each innings before sinking to shin height thereafter, an injection of his insouciant strokeplay could be just what England need to set the tempo of each innings. Moeen is also the one batsman who is sure to keep using his feet when the spinners come into play. Given the manner in which they capitulated on the last UAE tour, leading out with such positive intent might not be the worst idea of all time.

For whatever reason (and it possibly relates to a certain misplaced stroke in the World Twenty20 final in 2007) Misbah will never succeed in winning over all of his detractors. But, as is often the case with sportsmen whom the public love to hate, they'll miss him when he's gone and, at the age of 41, he's already dropped a hint that this series could be his swansong. And where better to kick things off than in Abu Dhabi, where his record of five hundreds at 120.57 in seven Tests borders on the preposterous? Three of those came in his last two appearances at the ground, against New Zealand and Australia in November 2014, when he capped the rare achievement of two hundreds in the same Test against the Aussies by equalling Viv Richards' record for the fastest hundred of all time.

With Moeen seeing off the challenge of Alex Hales to become Alastair Cook's latest opening partner, the path is cleared in the middle-order for a new spin-bowling No. 8. Adil Rashid's arrival in Test cricket has been some six years in the making but there could be few more tailor-made situations for a debutant legspinner to bed into the side.

Rashid takes his place in a rarely seen six-man attack and does so in the knowledge that his ability to produce late-order runs will be every bit as vital to the cause as a three-wicket burst to lop off Pakistan's tail. The pressure will be on but, equally, he'll never have a better chance to play his natural game in the knowledge that his team-mates are on hand if the ball doesn't quite come out right.

Steven Finn's foot injury has shelved the one remaining debate about the balance of England's attack. Though the man himself disputes that he counts as a genuine 90mph bowler, Finn's rare ability to extract lift in all conditions made him a genuine contender for selection, as his four-wicket haul in the second warm-up confirmed. Instead, Mark Wood's reverse-swinging allsorts will complete the sextet.

The only remaining issue, and one that Cook chose not to clarify, is the identity of England's wicketkeeper. Jos Buttler's form tailed off alarmingly during the Ashes and his technique against spin remains a cause for concern. Jonny Bairstow could augment his selection by taking over behind the stumps, which would in turn create a vacancy at No. 5 for the in-form James Taylor.

England (possible) 1 Alastair Cook (capt), 2 Moeen Ali, 3 Ian Bell, 4 Joe Root, 5 Jonny Bairstow, 6 Ben Stokes, 7 Jos Buttler (wk), 8 Adil Rashid, 9 Stuart Broad, 10 Mark Wood, 11 James Anderson

Two significant injuries have hampered Pakistan's build-up. Azhar Ali, whose century in the second innings at Dubai in 2012 was instrumental in sealing the whitewash, had already been ruled out of the first Test with an infected toe. And now Yasir Shah, whose legspin has reaped 61 wickets in ten Tests, has succumbed to a back spasm after snagging his spikes in the nets. A decision on his fitness will be taken in the morning, but his emergence has been one of the key reasons why Ajmal's mystery has not been missed since his run-in with the doosra police.

Two remarkable comebacks are also on the cards. Shoaib Malik has not played a Test for Pakistan since their defeat at Edgbaston on the infamous 2010 tour of England. However, Azhar's absence, coupled with a likely need for auxiliary spin options, means his return is all but guaranteed. An average of 33.45 from 32 Tests is little to write home about, but Shoaib seized his chance after being recalled to the ODI squad, and has averaged exactly 100 in 11 matches in 2015.

Fawad Alam has been on the outside looking in for even longer than that. His century on debut against Sri Lanka in 2009 was followed by two more Tests and six years of exile. His return to the squad is the first step towards a second coming. With Misbah and Younis nearing the end of their illustrious careers, further opportunities for veteran batsmen may materialise in the coming months.

Pakistan (possible) 1 Shan Masood, 2 Ahmed Shehzad, 3 Shoaib Malik, 4 Younis Khan, 5 Misbah-ul-Haq (capt), 6 Asad Shafiq, 7 Sarfraz Ahmed (wk), 8 Wahab Riaz, 9 Yasir Shah/Imran Khan, 10 Zulfiqar Babar, 11 Rahat Ali

As the Fast Show's Poula Fisch might put it, "meteorologicos mañana … scorchio!" Which is to say it will be hot. As for the pitch itself, the prospect is of a decent batting track with maybe a touch of life for the quick bowlers on the first morning of the match. Thereafter, the spinners will doubtless come to the fore as the seamers rotate in short and sharp bursts.

"Moeen Ali has done well against teams who play spin well, he did well against India who play spin well so you need to be focused. We know they are good bowlers and we have to respect them."
Misbah-ul-Haq, Pakistan's captain, is counting no chickens ahead of the first Test

"When you're forced to play a little bit positively, you can put the pressure back on the opposition. That's the way we want to play - it's not going to be crash, bang, wallop like it was in the summer, because of the natural pace of the game."
Alastair Cook wants England's batsmen to be positive without being reckless