A business solutions company in Mumbai has devised a computer model that forecasts cricket scores with apparently astounding success.
Fractal Analysis, a company that specialises in predictive analysis of customer behaviour for credit card companies, predicted a West Indies win in their opening match against Pakistan. In fact the computer model also predicted the exact scores of the two captains - Inzamam-ul-Haq and Brian Lara. "I can tell you the whole team in the office was jumping with joy last night when Lara got out for 37 and Inzamam for 36," Mukesh Badania, a consultant with the company told AFP.
The model is based on the theory that the outcome of every game and the performance of every player depends, to a degree, on what the player or the team has done in the past. To predict which team will win a particular match, the statistics of all one-day internationals played since 1996 are looked at to identify factors that have the maximum impact on the outcome of the match. Factors found to be relevant include the relative forms of the teams, their recent past record and their performances against each other.
"We started this a few months back and found that the predictions actually came out true," Badania added.
So who will win the World Cup? Keep yer hair on. It's too soon to tell it seems.