Australia still good value

And then there were four. Sri Lanka, New Zealand and South Africa join Australia in the semi-finals of the World Cup this week but no matter how hard you try to say otherwise, the Aussies are still the ones to beat and at 9/10 (1.90) they are exceptional value.

Considering that they were only 5/2 at the start of the tournament - and 11/10 at the halfway stage - and always likely to ease through to the semi-finals, I am surprised to see bet365 holding their price.

Now obviously anything can happen in one-off matches, but Australia have now not lost a single World Cup game since 1999 and it looks likely they will make it three titles in a row.

Ricky Ponting's side are playing well and all their big players are hitting form. The return to fitness of Shane Watson gives their side better balance and their demolition of New Zealand on Friday bodes well for their chances of winning again.

They play South Africa in the second semi-final in St Lucia on Wednesday, a repeat of the famous semi-final in 1999, when Australia squeezed home thanks to a late run out. South Africa are 4/1, but though they have talent, I just can't see them holding off Australia.

When the two sides met in the group stages, Matt Hayden and Adam Gilchrist tore into their top bowlers, ruining their confidence, so it will take an awful lot for them to reverse the fortunes.

Sri Lanka are 10/3 second favourites, while their opponents in the first semi-final, New Zealand, are the outsiders at 5/1.

New Zealand have to bounce back from their hammering by Australia, though the return of Shane Bond and Jacob Oram will help them in their cause.

Outside of Australia, Sri Lanka have been the most impressive side in the competition and the wiles of Muttiah Muralitharan and Chaminda Vaas, combined with the old stalwarts in the batting line-up make them a formidable side.

Sri Lanka eased to victory over New Zealand when they met in the Super Eights and I'd be surprised if they don't make it through to the final.

The Black Caps are an excellent team, in terms of playing as a unit and being behind their captain, but their batting is overly reliant on Stephen Fleming himself, and when he doesn't score heavily, they struggle.

I expect Australia and Sri Lanka to be in the final, and that makes the Aussies a great price at 9/10.