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Stats Analysis

Hurricanes, Heat control own destiny; Stars and Strikers relying on others

Who needs what ahead of Tuesday's triple-header, the final round of group games?

The Heat can knock the Strikers out on Tuesday  •  Getty Images

The Heat can knock the Strikers out on Tuesday  •  Getty Images

With just three matches to go in the BBL, here is a look at what the teams need to do on the last day to make the playoffs. Unlike in other leagues, five teams make it to the play-offs in the BBL. While the teams finishing in the top two positions have two cracks to make the final, the other three teams cannot afford to lose a single game in the play-offs.
Perth Scorchers (32 points), Sydney Sixers (32) and Sydney Thunder (31) have qualified for the play-offs already, while Melbourne Renegades are out of contention. The Sixers and the Scorchers will have two cracks at reaching the final.
Each game sees three points on offer for the winning team, plus a 'Bash Boost' bonus point for the team with the highest 10-over score. There is some rain in the forecast for the final round of games, but there should be enough time to fit all three games in on Tuesday.
Perth Scorchers - Played: 13, Points: 32
Last match against: Brisbane Heat
An amazing second half of the season has put Perth Scorchers in pole position. The Scorchers have guaranteed themselves a top two-spot owing to their superior Net Run-Rate. The only team that can go past them is the Sixers. The Scorchers need to win their final game against Brisbane Heat to guarantee finishing top of the league stage. If the Scorchers lose and the Sixers win, then the Scorchers would finish second.
Sydney Sixers - Played: 13, Points: 32
Last game against: Melbourne Stars
Similar to the Scorchers, the Sixers have also guaranteed themselves a top two-spot in the play-offs thanks to Adelaide Strikers' loss against Sydney Thunder on Monday night. The Sixers can aim for top-of-the-table finish by beating the Stars and hoping the Scorchers lose their game against the Heat.
Hobart Hurricanes - Played: 13, Points: 27
Last game against: Melbourne Renegades
Hurricanes have their fate in their control. Although they cannot finish in the top two, all they need is a win against bottom-ranked team Melbourne Renegades to qualify for the play-offs. This would take the Hurricanes to 31 points and a spot in the final five. Even if they lose, they can still qualify if the Stars lose to the Sixers and the Heat lose to the Scorchers. However, if one among Heat or Stars win then the Hurricanes will find it hard to qualify even if they get a Bash Boost point due to their inferior Net Run-Rate.
Melbourne Stars - Played: 13, Points: 24
Last game against: Sydney Sixers
The Stars do not have their fate in their control. The Stars play the Sixers in the last league game. The Stars could be eliminated by the time the game starts if the Heat and Hurricanes both win their last league match. However, if the Heat and the Hurricanes both lose then the Stars just need to win their last league game - possibly with a bonus point - to make the final five since they have a higher Net Run-Rate than Adelaide Strikers or Hobart Hurricanes.
Brisbane Heat - Played: 13, Points: 25
Last game against : Perth Scorchers
The Heat need the full four points against the Scorchers to guarantee they reach final five. The maximum they can get is 29 points and that would put them ahead of both the Strikers and also the Stars. If the Heat fail to win the Bash Boost point and win with three points then they would finish with 28 points, and would need to hope that the Hurricanes lose to the Renegades and the Stars do not get four points against the Sixers since the Stars have a superior Net Run-Rate.
Adelaide Strikers - Played: 14, Points: 28
The Strikers missed an opportunity to qualify for the play-offs of their own accord when they lost to Sydney Thunder on Monday. Their best chance is if Hurricanes lose their last league match against the Renegades, and the Stars and the Heat don't get four points from their matches. This would mean that the Strikers would qualify in fourth with 28 points.
However, if the Hurricanes do win their last league match, the Strikers need the Heat and Stars to win without a Bash Boost point (or lose). This would mean that Strikers will go past Heat in terms of Net Run-Rate while they will be ahead of the Stars by one point.

Gaurav Sundararaman is a senior stats analyst at ESPNcricinfo