Can New Zealand Qualify? (30 May 1999)
Can New Zealand Qualify
30-May-1999
30 May 1999
Can New Zealand Qualify?
Karthik K Ramamurthy
(Ramamurthyk@usa.net)
If New Zealand beat Scotland -- as they are expected to -- on 31st May,
the Australians, the West Indians and New Zealand will all have 6 points
each from 5 matches, causing a 3-way tie. In this situation, according to
the World Cup '99 Pla ying Conditions, Net Run Rate (NRR) will decide
which of the 3 teams go through to the Super Six stage of the competition.
The Points Table of these three teams at the end of the Manchester match:
TeamRuns ForOvers BattedRuns AgainstOvers BowledRun Rate ForRun Rate AgainstNRR
Australia952205.33958245.334.6363643.9048910.73147
West Indies723201.00746240.673.5970153.0997230.49729
New Zealand694178.33756194.333.8915893.8902230.00137
The comfortable Aussie victory over the West Indies at Manchester on 30th
May 1999 means they have a better NRR (+0.7315) run rate then the Windies
(+0.4973), and have thus ensured for themselves a berth in the next stage
of the World Cup. - - the Super Six.
Even if New Zealand wins so comfortably that they end up with a better NRR
than Australia, the Australians will qualify ahead of the West Indies
Brian Lara's men will be hoping that the Scots will perform well, beating
the Kiwis. If that seemingly impossible task is not achieved, the West
Indies will hope that the Scots at least don't allow the New Zealanders to
improve their Net Run Rate beyon d 0.4973 -- the West Indies' Net Run Rate
(NRR) at the end of five matches.
There are two different scenarios:
If Scotland Bats First.
In this situation, New Zealand will have to reach their victory target
with plenty of overs to spare. Assuming the Scots will not score less
than 34 runs (half their score against the West Indies) or more than
349, the following table provides details of the number of overs and
balls within which New Zealand must reach their target.
As can be seen from this table, New Zealand's best bet is to bowl out
the Scots for around 115 runs, and reach the victory target in 21 overs,
scoring at a reasonable run rate of 5.47 runs per over.
The more the runs the New Zealanders give away, the tougher their task
becomes.
For example, if the Scots score 150, the Kiwis must score at 6.622 runs
per over, if the Scots score 200, the Kiwis must achieve a rate of 8.122
r.p.o., and if they give away 250 runs, they must score at a difficult
9.418 runs per over to reach the Sup er Six
If the Scots put up a total in this range (whether they are bowled
out, or not)The Kiwis must reach the victory target in this many
overs and deliveriesAt a Run Rate ofTo achieve this NRR, and pip
the West Indies for a place in the Super Six
33&351702.00000.4978
36&381712.15530.4977
39&411722.30770.4975
42&451732.45710.4974
46&481742.66040.4982
49&511752.80370.4980
52&541802.94440.4978
55&581813.08260.4976
59&611823.27270.4983
62&641833.40540.4980
65&671843.53570.4977
68&711853.66370.4974
72&741903.84210.4980
75&781913.96520.4976
79&811924.13790.4982
82&841934.25640.4978
85&881944.37290.4974
89&911954.53780.4979
92&952004.65000.4974
96&992014.80990.4978
100&1022024.96720.4983
103&1062035.07320.4977
107&1092045.22580.4981
110&1132055.32800.4975
114&1172105.47620.4978
118&1202115.62200.4981
121&1242125.71880.4975
125&1282135.86050.4977
129&1322146.00000.4979
133&1362156.13740.4981
137&1392206.27270.4982
140&1432216.36090.4975
144&1472226.49250.4976
148&1512236.62220.4976
152&1552246.75000.4977
156&1592256.87590.4977
160&1632307.00000.4977
164&1672317.12230.4977
168&1712327.24290.4976
172&1752337.36170.4975
176&1802347.47890.4974
181&1842357.63640.4981
185&1882407.75000.4980
189&1922417.86210.4978
193&1972427.97260.4975
198&2012438.12240.4981
202&2052448.22970.4978
206&2102458.33560.4975
211&2142508.48000.4980
215&2192518.58280.4977
220&2232528.72370.4981
224&2282538.82350.4977
229&2322548.96100.4980
233&2372559.05810.4976
238&2422609.19230.4979
243&2462619.32480.4981
247&2512629.41770.4976
252&2562639.54720.4978
257&2612649.67500.4979
262&2652659.80120.4981
266&2702709.88890.4974
271&27527110.01230.4975
276&28027210.13410.4975
281&28527310.25450.4975
286&29027410.37350.4975
291&29627510.49100.4974
297&30128010.64290.4981
302&30628110.75740.4979
307&31128210.87060.4978
312&32228310.98250.4976
323&32728511.23700.4978
328&33329011.34480.4975
334&33829111.48570.4979
339&34429211.59090.4976
345&34929311.72880.4979
If New Zealand Bat First
In this situation, Stephen Fleming's men must aim to put up a big total,
and bundle out the Scots for very little.
The following table provides the minimum margin of victory for new Zeadlad
for any score of theirs in the range from 164 to 426.
Since it would be very difficult to bowl the Scots out for a score of
around 40, the ideal scenario for New Zealand would be to score around
275, and then try and bowl out the Scots for around 150.
The less New Zealand score, the more difficult their task would become.
If the Kiwis bat first and score in this rangeNZ must win with a
victory margin of at leastNew Zealand's Run Rate ForNew Zealand's
Run Rate AgainstNew Zealand's Nett Run Rate (NRR)
164-1691253.75773.25780.49982
170-1831243.78393.28650.49745
184-1971233.84533.34790.49737
198-2121223.90663.40930.49729
213-2261213.97233.47480.49750
227-2401204.03363.53620.49742
241-2551194.09493.59750.49735
256-2691184.16063.66300.49756
270-2831174.22193.72440.49748
284-2971164.28323.78580.49740
298-3121154.34453.84720.49732
313-3261144.41023.91270.49753
327-3401134.47153.97410.49745
341-3541124.53284.03550.49738
355-3691114.59424.09690.49730
370-3831104.65994.16230.49751
384-3971094.72124.22370.49743
398-4121084.78254.28510.49735
4134261074.84824.35060.49756
Source :: Karthik K Ramamurthy