England still in with a chance

England have been abject at this World Cup, beating only Ireland and Bangladesh so far in the Super Eights. Somehow, however, they go into their match with South Africa in Barbados on Tuesday knowing that victory will almost certainly put them into the semi-finals.

It is perhaps a shocking indictment of the standard of this World Cup - beneath the top three sides - Australia, Sri Lanka and New Zealand - that England still have a chance but they do and it wouldn't surprise me if they took it.

That's despite the fact that Michael Vaughan's side - with one or two notable exceptions - have been totally disappointing.

Vaughan looks a fish out of water in one-day cricket but can't be dropped because he is too important as captain. Andrew Flintoff looks like he has forgotten how to bat and is making no contribution in the middle order, and at the top of the batting, England just cannot make a decent start.

The thing is, South Africa are not much better and don't deserve to be 8/15 (1.53) to England's 6/4 (2.50).

There is a sneaking suspicion that yet again, the Proteas are struggling under the pressure of the big occasion. Having excelled early on in the group stages, they appear to have hit a wall, with worrying talk about how they are not worried about their run-rate - which could yet be crucial - giving away their fears.

That said, beat England and they will be through. However, the thing that puts me off is that they do not have any spin option in their bowling attack to upset England, who have been awful at the first sight of turn.

The bouncy Barbados pitch should encourage the South African pace attack but it will also help England and this promises to be a cagey match that could go right down to the wire.

Top bat
England's shining lights with the bat have been Kevin Pietersen, Ian Bell and Paul Collingwood and if they are to win the match, one or more of them will have to get a big score.

Pietersen, who saves his best for the big matches it seems, is the 11/4 favourite, while Bell is 4/1 and Collingwood and Vaughan are next at 9/2. Andrew Strauss and Ed Joyce, who are competing for one place apparently, are 5/1, while Flintoff is 15/2 and Ravo Bopara is 18/1.

For South Africa, Jacques Kallis, as usual, is favourite at 10/3, but he is joined by his captain, Graeme Smith, with AB de Villiers 4/1 and Herschelle Gibbs 9/2. Don't completely discount Mark Boucher and Shaun Pollock - both of whom have punished England in the past - at 10/1 and 25/1 respectively.

Pietersen looks a good bet at 5/6 to outscore Smith, who is vulnerable because he has to face the new ball, while Bell looks a solid bet at 4/5 to outscore his own captain, Vaughan.

It is little more than a hunch, in many ways, but the lack of spin in the South Africa attack and the fact that it is do or die for England makes me lean their way.