Fair for all, and decoding D/L

The World Cup has made the news for all the wrong reasons so far, but the on-field action has been fairly compelling, if you do manage to look beyond the fact that two sides which were huge crowdpullers have already been knocked out. The lesser teams have been knocked around for runs, but they've also caused major upsets, and at most of the venues, the pitches haven't been the usual featherbeds that have become the norm in one-day internationals - there's been help for both fast bowlers and spinners, and save for a few occasions, the batsmen haven't had it all their way.

In the 27 games played so far (including the West Indies-New Zealand match on Thursday), teams have averaged 29.73 runs per wicket, and 4.99 runs to the over - that translates into a score of 250 for 8, which, in a contest between two evenly matched teams, is just the kind of total which would have you rubbing your hands in anticipation of an exciting run-chase. Of the 26 games which have been won or lost - one game in the tournament was tied - 12 have been won by the team batting second, and only ten by the team which won the toss. (Both of India's losses, incidentally, came in matches in which they won the toss.)

The pitches in the Caribbean were expected to be tough for the fast bowlers to shine on, but Lasith Malinga, Shane Bond, Glenn McGrath, Charl Langeveldt and co. have shown that the relaid tracks have plenty in it for them. The spinners haven't suffered either, with Brad Hogg, Muttiah Muralitharan and Daniel Vettori carrying the spin torch with aplomb. (Click here for the leading bowlers in the tournament so far.)

The run-scorers' list is led by two openers - Matthew Hayden and Graeme Smith - but not all of them have had similar success. Chris Gayle, the West Indian powerhouse from whom so much was expected, has only managed 106 runs from five innings. On an average, the openers have put together less than 30 per partnership, which again suggests that there has been some early assistance for the fast bowlers. As the partnerships stats show, things get relatively easier for the batsmen as the innings goes along.

Most of these numbers indicate an even contest between bat and ball, and fair conditions for both fast bowlers and spinners. However, these numbers don't mean much in terms of enlivening the World Cup unless more teams come to the party and challenge the frontrunners. So far, West Indies have been lacklustre, while Australia, South Africa, New Zealand and Sri Lanka threaten to make it a predictable affair. The tournament badly needs a shake-up or two - upset wins for Ireland and Bangladesh over the weekend will do nicely.

With rain and inclement weather playing such a prominent part in the tournament so far, the Duckworth-Lewis method has come into play - or threatened to - on more than a few occasions. Though each game has a reserve day, the tournament rules make it clear that it will only be utilised if at least 20 overs for both teams aren't completed. That means plenty of opportunities for the rain rule to make an impact, and plenty of reason for teams to know how to use it to their advantage.

Since the method takes into account the overs left and the wickets in hand, teams that keep wickets in hand gain considerably in case of a rain break. A classic example was the game between Bangladesh and Bermuda at Port-of-Spain, a game which endured four rain breaks in the first innings. Bermuda lost a slew of wickets at the start, which meant that even though they lost a number of overs at each interval, the final target for Bangladesh only went up by a run.

In a game which had already been reduced to 41 overs at the start, Bermuda were justified in going for the runs from the start, but the target would have been quite different had they gone into the rain breaks with more wickets in hand. Here're Bermuda's scores when the interruptions happened:

Break 1: 3 overs, 6 for 1; match reduced to 35 overs
Break 2: 7.4 overs, 17 for 3; match reduced to 30 overs
Break 3: 15.1 overs, 45 for 4; match reduced to 21 overs
End of innings: 21 overs, 94 for 9; Target for Bangladesh: 96

To analyse the value of wickets in hand, check out the two scenarios below, which assume Bermuda lost fewer wickets going into the rain breaks. In each case, it's assumed that they finished with exactly the same score as in the actual match - 94 for 9 after 21.

The above table indicates how teams stand to gain by keeping wickets in hand. Here's why: the D-L method calculates the resources available to a team at the time of an interruption, and the percentage of resources denied to it by a disruption. By losing three wickets by the sixth over, and four by the 11th, Bermuda had already lost so much of their batting resource that the reduction in overs hardly mattered. Had they gone into the third rain break only two down, the target for Bangladesh would have gone up by 14 runs. That's a fairly significant addition, though in the context of that game and the way Mohammad Ashraful and Saqibul Hasan batted, those extra runs wouldn't have mattered a jot.