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News

IPL 2020 scenarios: Kings XI's defeat marginally simplifies things for KKR, Royals in their must-win clash

Kings XI's defeat to CSK has improved the qualification chances of RCB and Capitals

S Rajesh
S Rajesh
01-Nov-2020
KL Rahul is foxed off a slower delivery, Chennai Super Kings vs Kings XI Punjab, IPL 2020, Abu Dhabi, November 1, 2020

KL Rahul is foxed off a slower delivery  •  BCCI

The Kings XI Punjab's defeat against the Chennai Super Kings has eliminated them from the tournament, but five teams are still in the fray for three places. Here is a look at how things stand after the Kings XI's elimination.
Rajasthan Royals: Played 13, Points 12, NRR -0.377
Remaining match: vs Knight Riders
The Rajasthan Royals' need to beat the Kolkata Knight Riders to keep their hopes alive. The elimination of the Kings XI has only very marginally simplified their task, in that, if the Sunrisers beat the Mumbai Indians in their last game, then the Royals' net run rate (NRR) should be above that of the loser of the Capitals-Royal Challengers match.
If the Capitals lose by a run, chasing 160, the Royals need to win in around 13.5 overs (also chasing 160). If the Royal Challengers lose by a run, chasing 160, the Royals need to win in around 13.2 overs (also chasing 160).
However, given the Royals' poor NRR, their best bet for qualification will be if the Sunrisers lose their last match. Then, the Royals will progress to the playoffs without NRR coming into play, if they beat the Knight Riders.
Kolkata Knight Riders: Played 13, Points 12, NRR -0.467
Remaining matches: vs Rajasthan Royals
The Knight Riders are in a similar situation as the Royals, their opponents on Sunday, except that their NRR is a bit poorer. Hence, the best-case scenario for them is exactly what applies to Royals: to hope that the Sunrisers lose their last game. Then, the Knight Riders will qualify as the fourth team if they beat the Royals.
If the Sunrisers win their last game, then the Knight Riders will have to win by a big enough margin which lifts their NRR above that of the loser of the Capitals-Royal Challengers match. If the Capitals lose by a run, chasing 160, the Knight Riders need to win by 77 runs. If the Royal Challengers lose by a run, chasing 160, the Knight Riders need to win by 80 runs.
Royal Challengers Bangalore: Played 13, Points 14, NRR -0.145
Remaining matches: vs Capitals
The Kings XI's defeat has improved the qualification chances of the Royal Challengers, even if they lose to the Capitals on Monday. If they lose on Monday, they can qualify if their NRR stays above that of the winner of the Knight Riders' game against the Royals. If the Sunrisers lose to the Mumbai Indians, then the Royal Challengers will be through without NRR coming into play, despite a defeat to the Capitals.
They will want to beat the Capitals, though, as that will secure them second place on the points table.
Delhi Capitals: Played 13, Points 14, NRR -0.159
Remaining matches: vs Royal Challengers
Not only have the Capitals lost their last four matches, they have also lost three by huge margins, which has shaved off a whopping 0.933 from their NRR.
The Capitals are now in a similar situation as the Royal Challengers, their opponents on Monday. If they win, they will finish second; if they lose, their survival will depend on the Sunrisers-Mumbai game, and the margin of the Knight Riders-Royals match.
Sunrisers Hyderabad: Played 13, Points 12, NRR 0.555
Remaining matches: vs Mumbai
The Sunrisers have made a late surge and have an excellent NRR, but their last game is against table-toppers Mumbai Indians. However, apart from the NRR, what might work in their favour is the fact that they will play Mumbai in Sharjah, the same venue where they beat the Royal Challengers so emphatically.
The equation for the Sunrisers is the simplest: beat Mumbai, and they will be through regardless of other results; lose the match, and they will be out.

S Rajesh is stats editor of ESPNcricinfo. @rajeshstats