Let battle commence (10 May 1999)

10 May 1999

Let battle commence

Scyld Berry

South Africa to win the World Cup for the first time. Australia and Pakistan to be the other semi-finalists, along with the winners of the opening match, England or Sri Lanka. True or false? We will know by June 20.

What is certain is that the seventh World Cup will be the biggest in terms of the most matches played (42 of them) and the number of cricketers involved (180 in all, divided into 15-man squads, one more than previously to allow for the extra matches). It will be the fourth to be staged in England but the first here with white balls and coloured clothes, though as none of the games will be staged under floodlights this change serves no basic purpose. And it will have a league format up until the semi-final stages, which, by reducing the influence of luck, will favour South Africa.

Since the last World Cup South Africa have become pre-eminent in one-day cricket, losing only 16 of their 76 internationals. Their players are either at their late-20s peak or approaching it. As usual, they have rested sufficiently and prepared thoroughly. They have the motive too: this generation of players, of Kirstens and Cullinans and Donalds, has done admirable service since their country's readmission in 1992 but need something glamorous to round off the work and stamp their mark alongside their country's rugby players.

So urgent was their desire indeed that they developed a reputation for choking when prizes were at hand, but last autumn they defeated West Indies to win the ICC knock-out in Dhaka and Australia to win the Commonwealth Games, two stepping stones towards the greatest prize.

They are hot-shot fielders to a man, Jonty Rhodes and Herschelle Gibbs merely the pick of the ripest bunch in the tournament. Allan Donald is their only player who does not bat to all-rounder status, and he does have another area in which he can compensate. In their training camp in the Cape they have even worked on coming to terms with their label as favourites for the World Cup, leaving nothing to chance.

Such mechanical efficiency is enough to win ordinary competitions and the league stages of a World Cup. Some human flair or inspiration is required to break the deadlock of a World Cup final, and if Donald doesn't provide it as the consummation of his career, Hansie Cronje might after his altercation with Ali Bacher over non-white representation. Since his head-boy days at one of the leading schools of Afrikanerdom, Cronje has been groomed, and now at last the intensity of his will to fulfil himself is a positive driving force. His captaincy has given South Africa the stability in which to grow the seeds, and the only craftier one around is Arjuna Ranatunga, the last playing survivor of the 1983 World Cup (Graeme Hick was a non-player with Zimbabwe).

This time, like last, South Africa can be expected to top their group, and by so doing they will draw the venues of Edgbaston, Headingley and Trent Bridge for their Super Six matches against the top three teams from Group B. This will suit their special strength, their seam-bowling all-rounders, Jacques Kallis, Shaun Pollock, Lance Klusener and Cronje himself (these venues would suit England, too, if only they could head Group A).

Like their hosts, South Africa will be grateful that the ECB, when given the choice of staging this Cup before or after Wimbledon, opted for early season and grassier pitches, although the instructions to groundsmen are: "The whole pitch should be completely dry, firm and true, providing pace and even bounce."

The innovation of Super Sixes is a bit complicated but it does make for the best possible format given that 12 countries have to be accommodated in the interests of global development. The ideal format was that of the 1992 Cup when the nine countries played each other once and the top four went through to semi-finals. But it would take most of the summer for 12 teams to play one another, and being ceaselessly thumped would not do much for Bangladesh, Kenya and Scotland.

From Group A South Africa can be expected to qualify along with two out of England, India and Sri Lanka; from Group B Australia, Pakistan and West Indies (or, if they slip up, New Zealand). It pays to top your group as points are carried through to the Super Sixes, though only those points scored against the other teams which have qualified from your group (this bit is complicated, but it is only fair that teams which have Scotland and Bangladesh to thrash in Group B should not be given a head start). It does not pay to be the third and last qualifier from your group as you will probably have to win two out of your three Super Six matches to reach the semis.

All this means that South Africa can avoid the fate which scuppered them last time when there were quarterfinals and they came up against an extraordinary innings, a century by Brian Lara, which knocked them out. This time they can afford to lose out to Lara or Sachin Tendulkar along the way and still reach the semi-finals. Then the team who finish top after the Super Six stage - probably South Africa - will face the team finishing fourth, while the second team - probably Australia - will meet the third.

Australia share many of the strengths of the South African side but do not have those substantial seam-bowling all-rounders. They are expected to pick three straight seamers instead: Glenn McGrath, Adam Dale to bowl his 10 overs in the first half of the innings like Angus Fraser, and Damien Fleming, which makes for a tail. Their batsmen moreover are a little too green for English conditions, or else a shade too grey in the case of the Waughs. They have been on the road since last September, and did not even pop home after their tour of the West Indies, staying on for a week in Barbados instead. The Aussies will be up there all right but Steve Waugh's captaincy will have to become more inspiring to drive his men over the line.

A greater danger to South Africa than the predictable Australians are Pakistan. They could squeeze into the semis in fourth place then get out of bed on the right side and blow any team out of the water. To go all the way they need a more reliable opening batsman than Shahid Afridi: better an old-fashioned solid start in the first 15 overs, and never mind slogging until flaming June.

India and the West Indies were alike in the eyes of New World explorers, and they remain so in that they have a champion who could win any match, and some excellent supporting acts, but too many weak links to take the cup. New Zealand and Zimbabwe are alike too in being the banana-skins of their respective groups. Teams will be wary of Kenya this time, having sprung their surprise by defeating West Indies in 1996, and of Sri Lanka for the same reason. Sri Lanka, the holders, have lost 15 of their last 19 one-day internationals and are doomed by their reliance on spin for half their overs in early season. So the giant-killers could be Zimbabwe, especially if they deploy their two good leg-spinners against England at Trent Bridge.

Already this World Cup has served to brighten the face of English cricket as counties have built new stands or tarted up old terracing, numbering seats which had never been sold in advance before. To make the old face smile, and to attract spectators to the Test series against New Zealand which follows, a good England run is essential.

Some of the cricket in the next seven weeks will be spectacular, and not only South Africa but the hosts as well must provide their share. Those who think the world will end with the millennium won't be so far out where our cricket is concerned if England should fail to qualify.

Source :: Electronic Telegraph (https://www.telegraph.co.uk)