Pakistan's chance to end a poor run

More than two years after the ill-fated tour of Pakistan in which their bus was fired upon, Sri Lanka will play their first bilateral Test series against Pakistan at a neutral venue. On the only previous occasion that the teams played a neutral Test, Pakistan defeated Sri Lanka by an innings and 175 runs in the Asian Test Championship final in Dhaka.

Over the last two years, both teams have been going through a transition phase and are struggling to compete against top teams. Pakistan, who are missing their key bowlers due to injuries and bans, have only managed series wins against New Zealand and Zimbabwe since the beginning of 2010. During this period, they have lost to Australia and England. Sri Lanka, on the other hand, have found it almost impossible to win after the retirement of their leading wicket-taker Muttiah Muralitharan. In the six Tests Sri Lanka have played since his retirement, their bowling attack has looked far less threatening, and has been unable to cause the opposition too many problems.

Pakistan and Sri Lanka have a peculiar head-to-head record, with both teams being more successful in away Tests as compared to home matches. Pakistan, however, can take confidence from the fact that they are the team with the most wins against Sri Lanka.

Overall, Pakistan have had the better of Sri Lanka in head-to-head contests, although the majority of these victories came before Sri Lanka established themselves as genuine competitors in Tests. Since 1995, Pakistan won three and lost two Tests in Sri Lanka but failed to match their away performance in home Tests. Sri Lanka won six Tests in Pakistan in the same period. In the last series played between the two teams in 2009, Sri Lanka won the three-Test contest 2-0 after Pakistan's batting collapsed in the first two Tests.

England have been the in-form team since the beginning of 2009 and have an excellent win-loss ratio of 4.00 in the same period. None of the other teams touch 1.75. Sri Lanka, who lost their most recent Test series against Australia, have been fairly successful in the period with a win-loss ratio greater than one. Their difference between their batting and bowling averages, however, is just 1.13, which is much lower than the corresponding figures for England and South Africa. Pakistan have the second-worst win-loss ratio among all teams in the table, while their difference in averages is also only better than New Zealand's. Their inconsistency and tendency to collapse when put under pressure is clearly reflected in their batting average of 29.01, which makes them the only team among those in the table below with a sub-30 batting average.

Not only have Pakistan found it extremely hard to come up with a settled opening pair, they have also struggled to replace the experience of Mohammad Yousuf in the middle order. Mohammad Hafeez, who scored a century in the win over Zimbabwe, is likely to open with Taufeeq Umar, who has been in and out of the Pakistan team since his debut in 2001. Pakistan will bank heavily on the form of Younis Khan and Misbah-ul-Haq in the middle order. The pair has been extremely prolific, aggregating nearly 700 runs with five century stands in the last seven partnerships. The absence of the aggressive Umar Akmal will, however, be a major loss to Pakistan given his ability to take the attack to the bowlers.

Although Sri Lanka's recent woes have been mostly on the bowling front, in the recent home series against Australia, the batsmen failed to stitch together strong partnerships in the first two Tests. The batting finally came good in the third Test but by then the series was all but lost. Kumar Sangakkara and Mahela Jayawardene, who shared two century stands in the series against Australia, hold the record for the most century stands in the subcontinent. Overall though, Sri Lanka hold a significant advantage over Pakistan on the batting front as they have a better average across all top-order wickets.

Since the start of 2009, Sangakkara and Jayawardene have been among Sri Lanka's top three run-getters along with Thilan Samaraweera, who has been dropped after a poor series against Australia. Both Sangakkara and Jayawardene have been extremely successful against spinners (average over 70), but Sangakkara has generally handled pace bowlers better than Jayawardene. Tillakaratne Dilshan, who recently took over the captaincy, has struggled for form in recent matches. The biggest success story for Sri Lanka in the series against Australia was the batting display of Angelo Matthews, who scored a century and 95 in the three Tests and was Sri Lanka's highest run-getter. Mathews, however, has generally been less comfortable against spinners and has a low average (33.10) and balls-per-dismissal (62.0) against them.

Misbah and Younis, who have forged a prolific partnership in the last two years, have both had their problems against pace bowlers. While Misbah averages 37.78 against fast bowlers as compared to 64.00 against spin, the difference for Younis is even larger - he averages 42.66 against pace but 103.80 against spin. Azhar Ali, still relatively new to Tests, and the experienced but inconsistent Taufeeq, have been unable to showcase any dominance against either pace or spin in recent Tests.

With the absence of Mohammad Asif and Mohammad Amir, Pakistan's bowling in recent Tests has lost much of its potency. In Pakistan's series victory in Sri Lanka in 2006, Asif played a major role, picking up 17 wickets at 10.76 including 11 for 71 in Kandy. However, as is often the case with Pakistan, they have uncovered two talented pace bowlers in Wahab Riaz and Aizaz Cheema. Cheema was impressive on his Test debut against Zimbabwe picking up match figures of eight for 103. The pace attack will also be boosted by the return of the experienced Umar Gul, who was rested for the Zimbabwe series.

Since 2009, Saeed Ajmal is Pakistan's second-highest wicket-taker in Tests behind Gul. Ajmal had tremendous success in the West Indies where picked up 17 wickets in the two Tests. However, he has struggled in the subcontinent, picking up 17 wickets in four matches at an average of 36.35. Rangana Herath, Sri Lanka's stand-out bowler in the Australia series, was instrumental in Sri Lanka's successful defence of a modest 168-run target against Pakistan in Galle in 2009. In an attack lacking variety and incisiveness, Herath will probably have to shoulder much of the burden on the batting-friendly tracks. Shaminda Eranga, who bowled with pace and accuracy on his debut against Australia, will miss the series with an injury, further depleting Sri Lanka's bowling resources.

Pakistan last played in Sharjah in 2002 when they faced off against Australia and West Indies in two Tests each. Against Australia, they were bowled out for 59 and 53 in one Test and lost both matches by an innings. However, they did much better against West Indies and won both the matches comfortably.

In recent years, problems in Pakistan have forced them to play their matches in Abu Dhabi and Dubai. In their most recent series against a strong South African team, Pakistan showed great resilience to draw both the Tests. However, both Tests were characterised by batsmen batting for long periods, and bowling struggling for wickets. In the first Test, in Dubai, Pakistan, after being bowled out cheaply in the first innings, batted 117 overs in the second innings and scored 343 for 3 to draw the game, with Younis and Misbah putting together an undefeated stand of 186. The second Test in Abu Dhabi was another high-scoring draw, with both teams making more than 430 in their first innings. If the conditions remain similar, this could be yet another series which only the batsmen will remember.