Hosts and South Africa in excellent form

In this article I will be looking at the recent form of the batsmen as they get into the World Cup. This will be followed by an article on the bowlers.

It is obvious that both RpI (Runs per Innings) and RpB (Runs per Ball) are important when evaluating the value of a batsman to a team. A batsman A with an RpI of 50 striking at 75 would be essential for building an innings. A batsman B with an RpI of 35 striking at 110 would be essential for finishing an innings. Both qualities are essential. Hence I have devised a simple measure called Batting Index which is a product of the RpI and RpB. Thus these two measures are given equal importance. Using this measure A's Batting Index will be 37.5 and B's index value will be 38.5. This reinforces our assumption that both types of batsmen are essential. Hence in this article I will use the Batting Index as the unit of measurement.

Incidentally a Batting Index of 50 does not exist. The highest is 47.08 for Hashim Amla. AB de Villiers follows at some distance with 42.8. Virat Kohli's index value is just over 40. So a figure of 40 indicates an all-time great batsman like Viv Richards or de Villiers. Index value of 35+ indicates an excellent batsman and 30+ a very good one.

The second important point is Recent Form (RF). If a batsman has played enough number of matches, say 100, the Recent Form, whether great or awful, should not affect his career values greatly. On the other hand, for a batsman who has played in only 20 matches, the RF is likely to be more relevant. Hence I have adopted a varying weight method to determine the overall value, called Weighted Bat Index (WBI). This ranges from 90%/10% for long-standing careers to 50%/50% for very short careers.

Let us move on to the Batting values for Group A.

Group A: Top teams - Batsmen

Team	WBI	Batsman	Career ODIs	Career RpI	Career S/R	Career BatIdx	RF ODIs	RF RpI	RF S/R	RF BatIdx
Aus	34.13	SPD Smith	50	31.86	0.886	28.24	10	569	56.90	0.910
Aus	32.69	AJ Finch	41	37.10	0.862	31.99	10	411	41.10	0.824
Aus	32.29	JP Faulkner	38	32.08	1.111	35.65	10	265	26.50	1.008
Aus	31.74	SR Watson	180	36.77	0.899	33.04	9	222	24.67	0.810
Aus	30.62	GJ Maxwell	41	28.19	1.158	32.63	10	286	28.60	0.953
Aus	30.19	DA Warner	54	32.73	0.852	27.88	10	372	37.20	0.997
Aus	28.95	MJ Clarke	238	37.68	0.786	29.61	6	181	30.17	0.761
Aus	27.51	GJ Bailey	56	38.47	0.867	33.34	10	172	17.20	0.583
Aus	23.70	BJ Haddin	118	29.66	0.826	24.51	10	188	18.80	0.874
...
Nzl	43.63	KS Williamson	65	42.28	0.828	35.00	10	743	74.30	0.936
Nzl	40.00	L Ronchi	40	32.57	1.237	40.31	10	395	39.50	1.308
Nzl	36.28	CJ Anderson	26	32.71	1.294	42.33	10	263	26.30	0.996
Nzl	30.83	LRPL Taylor	150	36.39	0.826	30.07	10	447	44.70	0.843
Nzl	25.81	BB McCullum	240	27.13	0.917	24.89	10	308	30.80	1.108
Nzl	25.44	GD Elliott	58	28.24	0.743	20.97	7	286	40.86	0.950
Nzl	25.13	MJ Guptill	99	33.25	0.800	26.60	10	247	24.70	0.779
Nzl	15.08	TWM Latham	26	22.82	0.725	16.55	10	177	17.70	0.714
...
Eng	32.13	JE Root	48	35.56	0.800	28.46	10	467	46.70	0.819
Eng	27.90	JC Buttler	49	27.78	1.089	30.25	10	280	28.00	0.856
Eng	27.85	IR Bell	155	35.06	0.772	27.05	10	359	35.90	0.976
Eng	27.56	MM Ali	17	31.76	1.023	32.49	10	234	23.40	0.967
Eng	26.10	EJG Morgan	135	31.54	0.856	27.01	10	212	21.20	0.845
Eng	20.09	RS Bopara	119	26.17	0.778	20.37	10	242	24.20	0.727
...
Slk	32.50	KC Sangakkara	396	38.04	0.781	29.70	10	643	64.30	0.897
Slk	32.17	TM Dilshan	307	35.08	0.858	30.08	10	617	61.70	0.826
Slk	26.65	AD Mathews	149	30.67	0.848	26.00	10	375	37.50	0.866
Slk	25.66	DPMD Jayawardene	440	31.23	0.790	24.68	10	357	35.70	0.967
Slk	20.76	HDRL Thirimanne	87	28.78	0.695	20.01	10	314	31.40	0.757
Slk	18.45	LD Chandimal	92	27.55	0.740	20.38	10	144	14.40	0.746
Slk	16.40	MDKJ Perera	41	22.68	0.840	19.04	10	147	14.70	0.817

This table comprises of the top batsmen for the four lead teams in Group A. The table is ordered on the WBI.

Australia has a number of batsmen with WBI values exceeding 30 and this makes them formidable. George Bailey's poor recent form is clearly visible. Also Steven Smith's excellent form is on view. Note the value of James Faulkner in the late order. And David Warner is recently striking at around 100. It can be seen that the top-eight batsmen of Australia will have an average Bat Index value exceeding 30 and this is immense.

Kane Williamson is in what can only be termed as phenomenal recent form: 74.30 at 94. So his WBI is the highest in the group. Since Luke Ronchi has played only 40 matches, his WBI has been capped at 40.0. Both Corey Anderson and Ross Taylor have WBI values exceeding 30. Tom Latham, if he is played, could be the only weak link. In this group, New Zealand is second only to Australia. One could even say they are at par.

England has good numbers, not necessarily as spectacular as New Zealand. These are not earth-shattering by themselves but will make them a formidable opponent when coupled with their excellent bowling numbers. Moeen Ali would be a crucial player in this line-up. Eoin Morgan's recent form, however, is worrying.

Kumar Sangakkara and Tillakaratne Dilshan have been in terrific form recently and this is shown by their excellent WBI numbers. Similarly Angelo Mathews and Mahela Jayawardene are fine and around the 25 mark. But their worry will be the other batsmen: overall quite average. It is almost essential that in any important match two or three out of these four have to do well.

Group B: Top teams - Batsmen

Team	WBI	Batsman	Career ODIs	Career RpI	Career S/R	Career BatIdx	RF ODIs	RF RpI	RF S/R	RF BatIdx
Saf	48.06	HM Amla	107	52.54	0.896	47.08	10	581	58.10	0.978
Saf	46.99	AB de Villiers	179	44.14	0.972	42.88	10	679	67.90	1.237
Saf	31.96	Q de Kock	36	41.28	0.883	36.45	10	303	30.30	0.808
Saf	28.30	DA Miller	63	26.80	0.963	25.81	10	387	38.70	0.924
Saf	26.37	JP Duminy	134	32.25	0.834	26.88	10	280	28.00	0.778
Saf	25.00	RR Rossouw	14	29.71	1.002	29.73	10	354	35.40	1.005
Saf	23.87	F du Plessis	67	31.16	0.844	26.28	10	235	23.50	0.708
...
Ind	41.66	V Kohli	150	44.83	0.902	40.43	10	539	53.90	0.978
Ind	37.31	S Dhawan	53	41.08	0.896	36.79	10	436	43.60	0.892
Ind	34.50	MS Dhoni	254	39.72	0.888	35.29	10	342	34.20	0.799
Ind	28.94	SK Raina	209	30.93	0.930	28.76	10	281	28.10	1.085
Ind	27.90	RG Sharma	127	34.73	0.816	28.32	10	398	39.80	0.606
Ind	27.58	AT Rayudu	27	35.38	0.755	26.72	10	352	35.20	0.824
Ind	25.96	AM Rahane	46	29.91	0.766	22.91	10	394	39.40	0.788
Ind	22.20	RA Jadeja	111	25.31	0.844	21.37	10	286	28.60	1.036
...
Pak	28.46	Shahid Afridi	391	22.71	1.168	26.52	10	296	29.60	1.550
Pak	25.19	Misbah-ul-Haq	155	34.83	0.737	25.66	10	310	31.00	0.678
Pak	25.12	Ahmed Shehzad	58	34.22	0.720	24.65	10	356	35.60	0.745
Pak	24.99	Umar Akmal	104	30.89	0.865	26.71	10	126	12.60	0.754
Pak	24.38	Sohaib Maqsood	18	31.78	0.830	26.38	8	209	26.12	0.857
Pak	22.08	Mohammad Hafeez	155	29.69	0.734	21.78	10	291	29.10	0.853
Pak	21.85	Younis Khan	261	29.74	0.753	22.40	8	183	22.88	0.738
...
Win	31.40	AD Russell	43	24.71	1.248	30.84	8	174	21.75	1.487
Win	27.65	CH Gayle	262	34.56	0.842	29.11	8	138	17.25	0.841
Win	24.46	MN Samuels	167	29.94	0.743	22.25	10	499	49.90	0.888
Win	21.85	D Ramdin	120	23.74	0.828	19.64	10	409	40.90	1.020
Win	21.63	LMP Simmons	61	30.78	0.711	21.90	9	262	29.11	0.716
Win	21.21	DM Bravo	79	29.74	0.707	21.02	10	310	31.00	0.708
Win	18.91	DJG Sammy	119	19.47	1.001	19.48	10	171	17.10	0.803
Win	18.73	DR Smith	98	17.89	0.936	16.75	10	286	28.60	0.932

If it is not already known, the WBI of Amla and de Villiers should send shivers down the spines of the opposition. They both have WBI values exceeding 45. Amla's recent form values are 58.1 @ 97.8 and de Villiers' 67.9 @ 123. Only my decision to give these numbers a weight of 10% has kept these to these sub-50 levels. The only worrying factor for South Africa should be Faf du Plessis' indifferent recent form which is more than offset by Riley Rossouw who has a nominal WBI of 25.00.

The overall numbers for India are quite good. However this is to a great extent due to excellent career numbers and the Sri Lankan ODI series. But there is no doubt that the Indian team is potentially a devastating batting team. Of course Napier is not Nagpur and Perth is not Pune. Specifically India needs a quarter-final opponent like Sri Lanka to have a 50-50 chance of going through to the semi-final.

That Shahid Afridi leads the Pakistani table should be cause for worry for them. His recent form has been excellent. Misbah-ul-Haq is fine. But look at the other players like Umar Akmal and Younis Khan. If Pakistan has to do well, these two have to come to the party. In the last 15 innings, Younis Khan has one hundred and no other innings in excess of 35. In the last 10 innings Umar Akmal has not reached 50.

For West Indies, Andre Russell is striking well but Chris Gayle is in poor form. Marlon Samuels has been playing very well as also Denesh Ramdin. Darren Sammy is doing very little as a batsman. Jason Holder's numbers are so poor that he cannot be considered even as an all-rounder. West Indies are dependent on Gayle a lot. If he can finish the WC with an RpI of 50 striking at 100, they would do quite well.

Tier-2 Teams: Batsmen

Team	WBI	Batsman	Career ODIs	Career RpI	Career S/R	Career BatIdx	RF ODIs	RF RpI	RF S/R	RF BatIdx
Bng	25.52	Anamul Haque	27	35.68	0.708	25.28	10	360	36.00	0.720
Bng	24.60	Shakib Al Hasan	141	30.36	0.794	24.11	10	286	28.60	1.014
Bng	22.51	Tamim Iqbal	135	29.63	0.776	22.98	10	269	26.90	0.678
Bng	20.68	Nasir Hossain	41	29.83	0.787	23.48	10	217	21.70	0.738
Bng	20.50	Mominul Haque	24	24.50	0.747	18.29	10	275	27.50	0.826
Bng	20.32	Mushfiqur Rahim	140	26.95	0.714	19.23	10	373	37.30	0.809
Bng	17.86	Mahmudullah	110	24.12	0.729	17.59	10	258	25.80	0.787
...
Afg	26.54	Nawroz Mangal	34	29.09	0.817	23.77	8	307	38.38	0.812
Afg	22.41	Mohammad Nabi	45	29.69	0.896	26.61	10	204	20.40	0.756
Afg	20.95	Samiullah Shenwari	44	30.85	0.715	22.07	10	281	28.10	0.679
Afg	13.18	Asghar Stanikzai	38	23.77	0.584	13.89	10	191	19.10	0.628
...
Sco	28.14	MW Machan	15	36.53	0.760	27.77	7	259	37.00	0.771
Sco	24.97	CS MacLeod	26	26.50	0.754	19.97	10	351	35.10	0.949
Sco	22.88	RD Berrington	38	25.41	0.766	19.47	8	292	36.50	0.783
Sco	20.32	PL Mommsen	29	25.24	0.653	16.48	10	324	32.40	0.824
Sco	18.58	KJ Coetzer	19	37.79	0.795	30.05	4	48	12.00	0.593
...
Zim	22.25	BRM Taylor	161	30.54	0.725	22.14	10	297	29.70	0.784
Zim	22.09	SC Williams	69	27.83	0.774	21.53	10	297	29.70	0.801
Zim	20.56	H Masakadza	144	27.70	0.739	20.47	10	277	27.70	0.774
Zim	18.41	E Chigumbura	169	22.16	0.813	18.02	10	294	29.40	0.746
Zim	17.40	Sikandar Raza	21	27.52	0.736	20.27	10	205	20.50	0.709
...
Ire	29.39	PR Stirling	50	35.22	0.951	33.52	5	72	14.40	1.180
Ire	25.32	KJ O'Brien	83	30.25	0.833	25.20	8	245	30.62	0.842
Ire	21.48	JF Mooney	54	21.95	0.797	17.50	5	163	32.60	1.025
Ire	19.56	NJ O'Brien	63	26.60	0.674	17.92	5	180	36.00	0.679
Ire	16.79	WTS Porterfield	72	29.68	0.669	19.87	5	77	15.40	0.490
Ire	15.92	GC Wilson	51	23.04	0.721	16.61	5	115	23.00	0.602
...
Uae	20.00	Khurram Khan	10	42.70	0.832	35.54	6	334	55.67	0.859
Uae	20.00	Amjad Ali	9	43.56	0.856	37.28	7	296	42.29	0.820
Uae	22.54	SP Patil	5	26.75	0.843	22.54	4	107	26.75	0.843

These are the numbers for the other six teams. Based on these numbers it is easy to conclude that Bangladesh and Ireland have the good players to give these teams some chance of a surprise or two. Scotland is also good. But most of the matches which Scotland and Ireland have played would be against the other Tier-2 teams. Hence the figures for Zimbabwe look promising. In conclusion it is possible to think of a top team, which has an off day, losing to these teams. However for them to string together the wins needed to move them to the quarterfinals is something else. While West Indies could lose to Ireland one day, they are eminently capable of defeating India in the next match. So it does not take rocket science to conclude that the teams from the Tier-1 are likely to be in the quarter-finals.