South Africa hold the advantage

At last a big match to get our teeth into as New Zealand and South Africa clash in Grenada on Saturday. Victory for New Zealand would put them into the last four but having had just one day of rest after their defeat by Sri Lanka, the odds are against them.

Win or lose, South Africa will have another chance to make the semi-finals but New Zealand, despite having eight points, cannot take anything for granted. If they lose and then are beaten by Australia in their last match, then they could even miss out.

The big thing here is that the crazy scheduling means that New Zealand are almost certain to be tired, having played just two days ago in a tough loss to Sri Lanka. South Africa have not played since Wednesday and therefore should be the fresher.

Bet365 make South Africa 8/11 (1.72) to win the match, with New Zealand 11/10 (2.10).

Having won four out of four, New Zealand found things tougher against Sri Lanka, not least because their big guns failed with the bat. Stephen Fleming was out for a duck and when the captain fails, his team are always going to struggle.

South Africa may have lost to Bangladesh but that looks to have given them the kick up the backside they probably needed. Usually, they are rock solid and to me they have the upper hand, not least because they have won 27 of their 46 meetings.

Despite his failure on Thursday, Fleming is the favourite to be his side's top runscorer, at 3/1, with Scott Styris, centurion against Sri Lanka, next at 7/2 and Ross Taylor 4/1.

Peter Fulton is 9/2 and Hamish Marshall 11/2 with Craig McMillan 7/1 and Jacob Oram, who is perhaps due one of his swashbuckling innings, 9/1.

For South Africa, Jacques Kallis is favourite at 3/1, with captain Graeme Smith 10/3, AB De Villiers 4/1 and Herschelle Gibbs 5/1.

Leon Bosman is 7/1, Ashwell Prince 8s and Mark Boucher 11/1,

If you're not sure who to plump for, then just stick to South Africa, who really should win this one.