West Indies up against it

Eight losses in nine Tests in South Africa; 17 defeats in the last 20 overseas Tests; not a single Test win against a meaningful opposition outside home in more than seven years; and a humiliating ten-wicket defeat to a South Africa A team in less than three days. Going into the Boxing Day Test in Port Elizabeth, there is little to suggest that West Indies can somehow shrug off another appalling year and give their fans a year-end gift to take into 2008, especially against a buoyant South African side that is coming off a series win in Pakistan and a fearful mauling of New Zealand.

Against all those negatives, the only ray of hope for West Indies is their promising pace attack - Jerome Taylor, Daren Powell and Fidel Edwards showed just what they are capable of in the Twenty20 game at the same venue last week, destroying the South African top order with an outstanding bowling performance. Mickey Arthur, the South African coach, is aware of the threat they pose: "They have genuine strike bowlers and I think the one battle will be them against Graeme Smith and Herschelle Gibbs. If they all fire at the same time, they could set us back seriously." The wet conditions in Port Elizabeth - it has been raining for the last few days and the forecast is for more of the same on Wednesday - suggest Taylor and Co might have similar conditions to exploit, especially if West Indies win the toss.

What it also means, though, is that their batsmen could face a torrid examination if they are put in to bat on a juicy track. Dale Steyn has been in outstanding form, with 20 wickets in two Tests against New Zealand, and with at least two from Makhaya Ntini, Andre Nel and Shaun Pollock certain to be around, easy runs is one thing West Indies cannot expect.

The conditions will probably favour the seamers, but Graeme Smith, who'll be leading South Africa for the 50th time in Tests - indicated Paul Harris, the left-arm spinner, will still be part of the mix. "I think it's important we develop our spinner and give him responsibility in all conditions. With tours to India, England and Australia next year, he's going to play an important part. He's played an important part in our setup, and I wouldn't like to leave him out. It will take a very, very green wicket for the selection panel to leave him out."

West Indies have already suffered an embarrassing defeat, and to make matters worse they are still fretting over Chris Gayle's availability. Gayle had injured his hamstring in Zimbabwe, and if he doesn't recover sufficiently, Dwayne Bravo will make his debut as Test captain. West Indies have responded well to Gayle the captain in the past, but given the brittleness of their top order, they need Gayle the batsman far more desperately.

Daren Ganga has had an extended run in Tests now, playing 14 in a row, but his form has tapered away alarmingly - his last six Test innings read 5, 9, 5, 0, 0, and 6. Devon Smith doesn't inspire confidence, and with Ramnaresh Sarwan missing due to a knee injury, much depends on Shivnarine Chanderpaul, the one West Indian batsman who has consistently put a value to his wicket. "What we need are a couple of Larry Gomeses, a couple of stickability guys," Clive Lloyd, the West Indies manager, said a couple of days back. Chanderpaul can play the Gomes role and much more, but he will need the rest of the line-up to come to the party as well.

Apart from their fast-bowling line-up, what will also give West Indies hope is the inconsistent South African top order. The mighty Jacques Kallis remains an immense force in the middle order - he has five centuries in his last seven innings - while Hashim Amla and Ashwell Prince have played fine support acts, but the rest have been patchy at best. Smith is fit again after picking up a virus in Pakistan, but he'll want to shrug off his poor form too - his last 36 Test innings have fetched him just one century. It's even worse for Gibbs, who hasn't scored a hundred in his last 43 innings. With the two of them listed to open the batting against a charged-up new-ball attack, West Indies have the opportunity to strike early, and then build on that momentum.

That, though, is the best-case scenario for West Indies. Against a team which has been impregnable at home against all opposition except Australia, even a well-fought defeat will represent progress for West Indies.

South Africa's record at home is pretty impressive, but Port Elizabeth is the one ground where they haven't got it right, with eight wins and ten defeats. Smith admitted that's a record he wants to rectify: "It's fair to say we haven't played our best cricket down here in Port Elizabeth, but that doesn't mean we can't play good cricket. We just want to keep on improving our game, and getting better and better. If we do, I'm pretty confident that once we get into the series, we can take control of it."

South Africa (probable) 1 Graeme Smith (capt), 2 Herschelle Gibbs, 3 Hashim Amla, 4 Jacques Kallis, 5 Ashwell Prince, 6 AB de Villiers, 7 Mark Boucher (wk), 8 Shaun Pollock, 9 Paul Harris, 10 Dale Steyn, 11 Makhaya Ntini.

West Indies (from) Chris Gayle (capt), Daren Ganga, Devon Smith, Brenton Parchment, Shivnarine Chanderpaul, Runako Morton, Marlon Samuels, Dwayne Bravo, Denesh Ramdin (wk), Rawl Lewis, Pedro Collins, Fidel Edwards, Daren Powell, Darren Sammy, Jerome Taylor.