Setting the tone for the series

Hosts' dominance on the wane
The Boxing Day Test, for many years, has been one of the most popular and eagerly anticipated matches in the cricket calendar. The fixture has become a tradition in Australia, where it has been played every year since 1990 with the exception of 1994, when the match began on December 24th. In Australia, the Boxing Day Test has always been staged in Melbourne, whereas in South Africa, where the contest has not been a regular, the Tests have been played in Durban and Port Elizabeth. One of the most remarkable aspects of the Boxing Day fixtures in both Australia and South Africa has been the extremely low percentage of draws. Of the 34 matches that have been staged since 1990 in the two countries, only six have been drawn. Opposition teams have generally struggled to get the better of the home side in the Boxing Day Tests. Australia, during their heyday (1999-2007), won every Test played in Melbourne by comfortable margins. On the other hand, though South Africa's success rate is not as remarkable, their first Boxing Day Test defeat came as recently as 2007 against West Indies.

The Boxing Day fixture was not a regular feature in the Australian summer in the 1970s and 1980s. Australia were also less dominant in that phase, winning only two of the nine matches played. One of their best triumphs in the 1980s, however, came against the powerful West Indies team in the Boxing Day Test in 1981 when Kim Hughes' century and Dennis Lillee's ten-wicket haul led them to a 58-run win. But since the Boxing Day Test became an annual fixture (with the exception of 1994) in 1990, Australia have bossed the contest. They won three consecutive matches between 1990 and 1992 against England, India and West Indies before drawing a rain-affected Test in 1993 against South Africa. Their only two Boxing Day Test defeats in the 1990s came against West Indies in 1996 and England in 1998. But after the 1998 defeat, Australia embarked on a superb run winning every match in Melbourne till the loss to South Africa in 2008. However, an innings defeat against England in the last Ashes series has reinforced the view that the Boxing Day Test is no longer a contest that Australia dictate.

*Stats for all Boxing Day Tests since 1990 include only matches played in Australia and South Africa

South Africa, since their readmission in 1992, have played 14 Boxing Day Tests, winning seven and losing three. Although, South Africa did not lose a single match on Boxing Day till their 128-run loss to West Indies in 2007, they have had a higher number of draws when compared to Australia in the same period. Since the defeat to West Indies, South Africa's fortunes in the Boxing Day Tests have taken a beating. They lost by an innings to England in 2009 and went down by 87 runs to India last year in Durban. From the recent pattern of results in both countries, it is evident that a fixture which was the symbol of the home side's dominance for years is no longer a fearsome prospect for visiting teams.

The series context
While in the 1990s, teams losing the Boxing Day Test were able to claw back in the series, it has not been so in the 2000s where the Boxing Day Test result has set the template for a dominant series for the hosts. In the 1990s, there were three instances of teams winning the series despite Boxing Day defeats: apart from Australia's 2-1 series loss to West Indies in 1992-93, the other two occasions were when West Indies lost 3-2 in 1996 after winning the third Test in Melbourne, and England in 1998, who won the fourth Test by 12 runs but lost the series 3-1. In the last 20 Boxing Day Tests, Australia have gone on to lose the series only once despite winning the Boxing Day Test (against West Indies in 1992-93). In the 1990s, when the Boxing Day Test was predominantly the second match of the series (five times), Australia won four out of nine series after winning the Boxing Day Test.

However, in the 2000s, Australia's control over the Test and the series was much stronger. While no team won a series after losing the Boxing Day Test, the only time a team failed to win the series despite winning on Boxing Day was in 2003-04, when Australia beat India in the third Test but the series was drawn 1-1.

The pattern in South Africa has been quite different. Of the six Boxing Day Tests in the 1990s, three of them were the third match of the series. South Africa dominated the fixture winning four matches and drawing the other two. In the 2000s, the Boxing Day Test has mostly been the second match of the series (five times). South Africa have never lost a series after winning the Boxing Day Test, and also they remain the only team to win a series despite suffering a defeat in the fixture ( against West Indies in 2007).

* The losses indicate the defeats for the home team in the corresponding match number of the series

Predominantly one-sided contests
Another characteristic of the Boxing Day Tests has been the lack of close contests. While the home teams have been comfortable winners in the majority of matches, the visiting teams have also won fairly emphatically. In the 1990s, there was only one Boxing Day Test where the winning margin was less than 100 runs (England's 12-run win in 1998) and none when the team chasing in the fourth innings won by fewer than five wickets. The trend has continued in the 2000s, with the only two defeats suffered by Australia in 2008 and 2010 also being massive ones. In the 1990s, the team winning the toss had a 1-6 record but the stats have been far more even in the 2000s with the team winning the toss going on to win six and lose five out of 11 matches. Batting first has not been of any distinct advantage in the Boxing Day matches in Melbourne, with teams batting first having a 4-3 and 5-6 record in the 1990s and 2000s respectively.

In the 1990s, winning the toss did not have a major influence in the result in Boxing Day Tests in South Africa. Teams winning the toss had a 2-2 record while teams batting first won one and lost three matches. In the 2000s, the toss had proved to be far more crucial. Teams winning the toss have gone on to win five out of six matches. Batting first has also proved advantageous with teams electing to take first strike having a 4-2 record.

Opening-day stats
The anticipation and the atmosphere can make the first day of a Boxing Day Test pretty unnerving for players. Let's, therefore, check out the opening-day stats in these matches. The overall numbers show that the home team has done better in these opening exchanges, but the difference in numbers is much wider in South Africa than in Australia. In South Africa, the home team batsmen have averaged 39.28 runs per wicket on the opening day (in eight innings), well clear of the visitors' average of 26.73 (in seven). That's despite the opening partnerships for the visiting teams faring much better than the hosts.

In Australia, visiting teams have matched the performance of the home team in terms of the average on the first day. The average scores at the end of the first day in Australia and South Africa are quite similar. Since 2000, visiting teams have batted first on four occasions in Melbourne and have an average score of 273 for 6 at the end of day 1 which is only slightly behind Australia's corresponding number of 292 for 6. In the same period in South Africa, the visiting teams, with a run-rate of 3.18, have matched the scoring rate of South Africa (3.15) on the opening day of the Boxing Day Tests but have lost more wickets on average (7) as compared to the hosts (5).

With the Australian tracks being more conducive to faster run scoring, there have been five occasions on the first day when 300-plus runs have been scored. However, in South Africa, there has not been a single first day of the Boxing Day match when 300 runs have been scored. In both countries, there have been three matches when ten or more wickets have fallen on the first day of the game.