Can Netherlands surprise red-hot South Africa once again?
Netherlands need all departments to come together, but South Africa are charging at full speed already
Hemant Brar
16-Oct-2023
Big picture
"The only thing the past gives us is learning."
South Africa head coach Rob Walter was talking about his side's defeat to Netherlands at the 2022 T20 World Cup when he shared this aphorism. South Africa were not only stunned but knocked out of the tournament. But, Walter said, they have learnt their lesson.
So when the two sides meet in Dharamsala on Tuesday, South Africa will not be looking at Netherlands as a weaker opponent. At the same time, they should not be under any pressure. This time it's a longer format, which reduces the chances of an upset. When these sides played two ODIs earlier this year, South Africa thrashed Netherlands by eight wickets and 146 runs.
A bigger reason, perhaps, is South Africa's recent form - they are on a five-match winning streak. In each of those games, they batted first, smashed more than 300, crossed 400 twice, and won by 100-plus runs. Arguably, they have the strongest batting unit at this World Cup. Since the start of 2023, ten batters have scored 400 or more ODI runs at an average above 50 and a strike rate over 100. Four of them are from South Africa: Temba Bavuma, Aiden Markram, David Miller and Heinrich Klaasen. Quinton de Kock, with 552 runs at 46.00 and 97.52, isn't too far behind either.
What about Netherlands' chances then? They have lost both of their matches so far in this World Cup, but have shown fight. To win, however, they need to put together all three phases of the game, as their batter Colin Ackermann noted after the New Zealand loss.
For inspiration, they too can look at the past. If it can be done once, it can be done again. And they don't even have to jog back all the way to last year. They just need to look at Sunday's game, where Afghanistan toppled defending champions England.
Form guide
Netherlands LLLWW (last five ODIs, most recent first)
South Africa WWWWW
South Africa WWWWW
In the spotlight: Bas de Leede and Quinton de Kock
Playing ODIs for the last time, Quinton de Kock is burning the brightest. He had played 17 World Cup matches before this edition but couldn't score a hundred. Now he has two in two. Since the start of 2021, he has been equally aggressive against pace and spin, which has helped him score at better than run a ball not just in the powerplay but also in the middle overs. South Africa will expect him to set the tone once again.
Bas de Leede has been exceptional for Netherlands this year. It was his five-for and blazing hundred against Scotland that helped Netherlands qualify for the World Cup. Then, in his side's opening game here, he picked up a four-for and struck 67 against Pakistan. Overall, he averages 46.25 with the bat and 22.90 with the ball in 2023. If Netherlands are to beat South Africa, they will require a similar performance from him.
Team news
The only question for South Africa is if they want to bring in fast bowler Gerald Coetzee for left-arm wristspinner Tabraiz Shamsi. The answer could lie in the pitch.
South Africa (probable): 1 Quinton de Kock (wk), 2 Temba Bavuma (capt), 3 Rassie van der Dussen, 4 Aiden Markram, 5 David Miller, 6 Heinrich Klaasen, 7 Marco Jansen, 8 Kagiso Rabada, 9 Keshav Maharaj, 10 Lungi Ngidi, 11 Tabraiz Shamsi/Gerald Coetzee
Logan van Beek missed the New Zealand game with a hamstring injury. If he is fit, he could come in for Ryan Klein. The rest of the side is likely to be unchanged.
Netherlands (probable): 1 Vikramjit Singh, 2 Max O'Dowd, 3 Colin Ackermann, 4 Bas de Leede, 5 Teja Nidamanuru, 6 Scott Edwards (capt & wk), 7 Sybrand Engelbrecht, 8 Roelof van der Merwe, 9 Logan van Beek/Ryan Klein, 10 Aryan Dutt, 11 Paul van Meekeren
Pitch and conditions: Dharamsala outfield under scanner
Dharamsala has hosted two matches so far in this World Cup. On both occasions, the teams were more concerned about the substandard outfield than the pitch. While Bavuma said the outfield didn't feel as bad when South Africa did their fielding practice on Sunday, the players will be cautious while diving around. Meanwhile, for Netherlands, in the words of their coach Ryan Cook, it's "probably better than most of the outfields we play on".
There have been light showers in the last couple of days, and the forecast for Tuesday afternoon is similar.
Stats and trivia
- Markram and Klaasen are the only batters with strike rates over 120 against both pace and spin this year (minimum 200 runs against each).
- Kagiso Rabada is one short of 150 ODI wickets. If he gets there on Tuesday, in his 95th match, he will be the fourth-fastest South Africa bowler to the mark.
- So far in 2023, Rabada has played seven ODIs. In six of those, he picked up two or more wickets.
- With 13 scores of 50 or more in ODIs, Scott Edwards is joint-second for Netherlands with Tom Cooper. He needs one more 50-plus score to draw level with Ryan ten Doeschate for the top spot.
- Colin Ackermann averages 144.00 against pace and 21.85 against spin in his nine ODIs.
Quotes
"To go back to what has been said regarding our brand of cricket, us being opportunistic as batters, as bowlers, looking to take the game on. That obviously means that the strike rates will be a bit higher. If you look at our top six, top seven, all of the guys really have been striking at high strike rates. It's just more a matter of us keeping up the intent, looking for opportunities to put bowlers under pressure and obviously backing our skills and execution. So, coming into the World Cup, nothing is going to be different. We're going to keep going the same way. We're going to keep backing that."
Temba Bavuma on his side's intent with the bat
Temba Bavuma on his side's intent with the bat
"We have got a couple of guys with South African origin in our team with Roelof [van der Merwe] and Colin and obviously a couple of guys from the coaching staff as well. So we do know a lot of the [South Africa] players quite personally and professionally as well, having done a lot of work with them in different teams. So yeah we get to know a little bit more about the players and what makes them tick, and obviously we will be using that to see if there is any advantage that we can use."
Netherlands coach Ryan Cook
Netherlands coach Ryan Cook
Hemant Brar is a sub-editor at ESPNcricinfo