Tactics Board: Where the final could be won and lost

Barely two weeks since their defeat to India in the group stage, Pakistan are a transformed side. We look at what it would take for them to upstage the defending champions

ESPNcricinfo staff

16-Jun-2017

4:10

Dravid: Pakistan's best chance is to bowl first

Will Pakistan continue bowling first?

In their four games so far in the 2017 Champions Trophy, Pakistan have played to a template - bowl first, restrict the opposition, and chase down the score. Except for their first group game against India, the plan has worked. Their bowling attack has, in many ways, torn apart the ODI playbook that has been in vogue in England of late, by restricting teams to less than 240 and chasing with varying degrees of ease. Pakistan, however, have not played a single game at The Oval, where the average first-innings score since the 2015 World Cup is 293; 300-plus scores are far more frequent there than at Edgbaston and Cardiff. Despite how well they chased down England's 211 in the semi-final, and considering India's batsmen ran them ragged in the first game, will Pakistan want to bowl first again on what looks set to be a fresh, dry deck at The Oval?

Who will win the middle-overs battle?

Apart from this being a face-off between the tournament's best batting side and the best bowling attack, it also pits the two best bowling attacks in the middle overs against each other. Both teams have had one off day, India's coming against Sri Lanka, while Pakistan let themselves down against India in their opening game.

Since that first match, Pakistan have turned things around dramatically in the absence of Wahab Riaz, their most expensive bowler against India. Their fast bowlers have dismantled fearsome middle orders with yorkers and reverse swing, while the spinners have stemmed the run-flow, with all three going below five runs per over in this phase.

India's bowlers aren't too far behind, but they got a massive helping hand from their fielders (against South Africa) and a part-timer (Kedar Jadhav against Bangladesh). These contributions helped keep the runs under check, with the ensuing pressure forcing errors from the batsmen.

Both sides have inflicted severe damage between overs 31 and 40, when batting sides usually get set to step on the gas. India have brought back at least one of their seamers, while Pakistan have bowled both Mohammad Amir and Junaid Khan in this phase to exploit the older ball. India have picked up seven wickets at an economy rate of 4.40, while Pakistan have been deadlier with eight wickets, conceding just 3.60 runs per over.

What has changed from the previous game between these two sides?

For starters, a few key personnel. Ahmed Shehzad has sat out all of Pakistan's three subsequent games, and Fakhar Zaman has sealed his place for the final with a couple of crucial innings at the top of the order. Wahab Riaz won't be around, and his replacement Rumman Raees impressed against England on debut. Pakistan's economy rate has dropped from 6.64 to 4.46 since that first game, and it would be interesting to see how this new-look attack will fare against the tournament's best batting side.

India have batted to a plan so far, and not much is likely to change in the final. Sarfraz Ahmed will look beyond Imad Wasim to open the bowling, and would do well to have Junaid Khan bowling to India's top order, considering his record against the likes of Rohit Sharma and Virat Kohli. Mohammad Hafeez did not bowl in the first game, but should deliver some part of his quota, considering his success since.

Pakistan's fielding and catching was exceptional in their rout of England at Cardiff, and would need to be on top of its game, if they are to push India in a crunch game.

Will India play two spinners once again?

R Ashwin took the crucial wicket of Hashim Amla against South Africa, before a 10-0-54-0 return against Bangladesh in the semi-final. When Tamim Iqbal was in full flow, he hammered 26 runs off 20 balls from Ashwin, and India had to turn to Jadhav's part-time offbreaks to end that run. While it could be tempting to tinker with the bowling attack, considering Pakistan's right-hander-heavy batting line-up, India would remember that their only defeat in the tournament came at The Oval, where Umesh Yadav's expensive spell forced them to bring in Ashwin in the first place. Mohammed Shami is their other option, but considering he has not bowled since the warm-up games, it would be surprising if he comes in for a big final, despite his exceptional record against Pakistan.

Pakistan India Pakistan vs India ICC Champions Trophy