Anantha Narayanan
How does one create a ranking of the top bowling performances in Test cricket?
The parameters and methodology explained
Anantha Narayanan
09-Jun-2018
It's been 17 years since my Wisden top 100 Test innings of all time was first unveiled to the public and now it's time for an upgrade.
Back in 2001, I received a lot more bouquets than brickbats, but while the bouquets make me happy, the brickbats help shape my future analyses. I am grateful and indebted to all the cricket enthusiasts who took the time to study the lists, appreciated the effort, and commented. This exercise is dedicated to the enthusiasts who have waited for this update, confident that I would do a good job of ironing out the wrinkles and incorporating all the new improvements in the database. Of course, this effort will also reveal the memorable performances in the last decade and a half and show where these rank against the best of the best.
The Wisden 100 background
Anthony Bouchier, the CEO of Wisden Online, with whom I was working as a consultant in 2000, first brought up the idea of ranking the top 100 individual performances. During the next 12 months, this one-sentence concept became a massive project as I interacted with Wisden stalwarts in the UK and India, got the database checked and cleaned up, and wrote scores of C programs. The response to the Wisden 100 lists was heartening. The wide distribution of performances made sure no one period got undue credit. The list brought into the limelight many unknown and forgotten performances, such as the batting masterpieces of Clem Hill, Azhar Mahmood and Kim Hughes; and the bowling performances of Hugh Tayfield, James White, Devon Malcolm and Graham McKenzie among others.
Full postAnthony Bouchier, the CEO of Wisden Online, with whom I was working as a consultant in 2000, first brought up the idea of ranking the top 100 individual performances. During the next 12 months, this one-sentence concept became a massive project as I interacted with Wisden stalwarts in the UK and India, got the database checked and cleaned up, and wrote scores of C programs. The response to the Wisden 100 lists was heartening. The wide distribution of performances made sure no one period got undue credit. The list brought into the limelight many unknown and forgotten performances, such as the batting masterpieces of Clem Hill, Azhar Mahmood and Kim Hughes; and the bowling performances of Hugh Tayfield, James White, Devon Malcolm and Graham McKenzie among others.
Who are the high-fliers and the bankers of ODI cricket?
Charting the performances of batsmen based on how fast they score and how long they last
Anantha Narayanan
12-May-2018
A few years ago I used the Boston Consulting Group (BCG) charts to get insights into how ODI batsmen fared along two contrasting measures: the batting strike rate (SR) and Runs per Innings (RpI). In this article, I will refine that comparison to a more meaningful one.
It is also a good time* for this analysis since the ODI arena is stuffed with many all-time great batsmen. What was considered outstanding a few years back is now par.
Long-time readers will remember that I have done many presentations of contrasting measures using the very powerful BCG charts. For newer readers, let me describe the BCG charts briefly.
Full postWhat median scores tell us about batting careers
While the average is the more common stat by which batting numbers are measured, looking at metrics based on the median throws up some interesting findings
Anantha Narayanan
14-Apr-2018
Some caveats to start with. I am a cricket analyst, not a statistician. I have not studied statistics. I have not worked in statistics-related positions. My knowledge of statistics is from what I learnt taking a course at IBM, and subsequently through general interest. Having got that off my chest, I can safely go on to this article with the firm knowledge that my common-sense-based application of statistical measures here will not invite comments relating to my qualifications.
The spark for this article came from a reference to the median by S Rajesh in his stats review at the end of the Ashes series. He compared the series performance of the two leading English batsmen. Joe Root scored 378 runs at 47.25, and Alastair Cook an almost identical tally of 376 runs at 47.00. But the two efforts were chalk and cheese. The median score for Root was 51 (1, 9, 14, 15, 51, 58, 61, 67, 83) and that for Cook was 14 (2, 7, 7, 10, 14, 16, 37, 39, 244). This showed how lopsided Cook's performance was. It made me wonder how the top batsmen in the game had fared on this measure through their careers. This article is the result.
Incidentally, my friend Kartikeya Date covered the idea of the median in a blog post. However, he did this four years ago, when Steve Smith's career was just about stabilising at 1361 runs at an average of 40. So a lot of water has passed under London Bridge, and in any case, my look at the median is different to Kartikeya's. But let me acknowledge his pioneering effort, and that of anyone else who has done this sort of analysis before.
Full postWhere will these young giants end their careers?
Predicting which batsmen will go past 13,000 Test runs and bowlers past 550 Test wickets
Anantha Narayanan
10-Mar-2018
Very rarely has the Test scene been blessed with a collection of outstanding young batsmen, all with averages exceeding 50. All of them are below 30 and have more wonderful productive years ahead. In addition, we have two most accomplished veterans in the form of Alastair Cook and Hashim Amla. I am not even bringing into the equation batsmen like AB de Villiers and David Warner.
I felt it is time to have an informed crystal-ball look at the careers of these batsmen and to see what are the chances of one or more of these batsmen overtaking the magnificent four who have crossed 13,000 Test runs. This is neither a straightforward extrapolation nor a complex simulation. I have used the individual player's career progress, his team's Test-playing pattern and the player's recent form and the next two-year FTP. So I would say that this is a scientist's look through the crystal ball.
How can the bowlers be left behind? Not in my domain, never. The only difference is that the contesting bowlers are all on the wrong side of 30. As such they have less time ahead of them and their chances at toppling the Goliaths at the top are not very good. However, the study reveals very interesting possibilities. Muttiah Muralitharan could still feel quietly confident, but not necessarily Anil Kumble or Glenn McGrath.
Full postThe dozen performances that lit up 2017
A look back at the best performances of 2017 in both Tests and ODIs
Anantha Narayanan
14-Jan-2018
I am glad to be back "home", writing for my favourite readers on the premier cricketing portal. The sabbatical of six months, this time not of my own choosing, was spent fruitfully, writing for The Cricket Monthly and the long-standing print-cum-web magazine Sportstar. But there is no doubt that this is my home and it's nice to be back.
How do I return? With a bang, with what I have been promising the readers for many years, or quietly, getting my footwork, or in this case, handwork, settled? What settled the issue for me was the fact that the comments process on ESPNcricinfo is now handled through Facebook and I have no editing authority. Even my responses have to be through "Replies" on Facebook. Since I am not sure how this is going to work out, I decided to take the quieter way in, doing couple of low-profile pieces before switching to something that might draw heavy reader interaction.
For my first piece, I have chosen a favourite topic: an analysis-based review of the past year. I have combined an analysis-based shortlist and a final selection based on my perusal of the performances, looking into non-scorecard aspects as well. This is the correct way of identifying the really impactful performances. Later this year, I will come out with a comprehensive update of my individual Performance Rating tables and this article is a nice way to ease into that minefield.
Full postThe analytical power of the halfway mark
The Halfway Wicket Value (HWV) is a simple yet effective metric to gauge the progress of a Test innings
Anantha Narayanan
17-Jun-2017
Nearly a decade ago, I commenced my innings at Cricinfo with a hard-hitting article on how the Batting Average, a flawed measure in my opinion, even today, can be tweaked. There was a tremendous response and I am glad to say that I had more bouquets than brickbats. Since then I have modified that measure continuously, aided by excellent inputs from readers, and a very satisfactory and almost foolproof alternate measure, RpAI, is in place now. I am confident that the new measure I am going to present and discuss in this article will be an equally significant and pathbreaking one, when it comes to evaluating the progression of a completed Test innings.
Recently, there has been a lot of discussion on the contributions of lower-order batsmen. There is a feeling that there is a more effective contribution by lower-order batsmen nowadays. I wanted to do some work on this intriguing theme. The traditional methods are to use the wicket-fall situations and partnerships. These types of analyses have been done in plenty. Then one day, while having my shower, I had a brainwave, a la Archimedes. Why not use the halfway score as a reference point? Fortunately, unlike Archimedes, I stayed in the bathroom.
I have developed this concept further over the past couple of months. I can say honestly that I have never been so excited at the possibilities of a measure as I have been about this one. I have used it to look at innings and matches and the insights that can be derived are priceless. It is also very easy to understand, and derive, for the normal cricket follower.
Full postThe best home v visiting XIs - part two
A country-wise selection of the best all-time home and visiting Test XIs based on empirical methods
Anantha Narayanan
27-May-2017
Spurred on by a casual suggestion from a reader, I embarked on an exhilarating journey which culminated in a pair of articles on the best XIs to visit each country. These two articles elicited tremendous response from the readers and they wanted me to make some important tweaks. They also wanted me to select an all-time best Home XI. I did this composite work for Australia, England, India and West Indies in part one. These tweaks are also explained there.
The changes, in summary, are:
- Less weight for Runs scored/Wickets captured.
- Add "The Pitch Quality" as a weighting measure.
- Add "Support available" as a weighting measure.
- A totally revised method to adjust the RpAI/Bowling Average values.
- And finally, treat the UAE Tests as "Home" Tests for Pakistan.
Full post- Add "The Pitch Quality" as a weighting measure.
- Add "Support available" as a weighting measure.
- A totally revised method to adjust the RpAI/Bowling Average values.
- And finally, treat the UAE Tests as "Home" Tests for Pakistan.
The best home v visiting XIs - part one
A country-wise selection of the best all-time home and visiting Test XIs based on empirical methods
Anantha Narayanan
13-May-2017
Spurred on by a casual suggestion from a reader, I embarked on an exhilarating journey which culminated in a pair of articles on the best XIs to visit each country. These two articles elicited tremendous response from the readers: 154 comments for Part 1 and 163 for Part 2. It was indeed nice to receive a lot of appreciation. However, my readers are the creme de la creme and, while offering their unstinted appreciation, also asked for their pound of flesh. There were many suggestions, the important ones of which are summarised below. Taking this feedback into account, I have set out to complete a mammoth task, which grew in complexity and scope as I worked on it. What transpired is another intriguing double-header. First let me summarise the readers' comments and suggestions.
1. Reduce the weight given for Runs and Wickets. A very sensible suggestion.
2. Add two other selection criteria: The Pitch Quality and Support available. Both are excellent suggestions and I have done these based on my two recent articles, the PQI piece and the Support Index one.
3. Create for each country an all-time best Home XI. This request has a lot of validity since there are many players who are kings while they travel while being only average at home. Wally Hammond, Graeme Smith and Stephen Fleming are shoo-ins for their respective teams' away tours but stand very little chance of getting selected for their home series.
4. Look at strengthening the wicketkeeper selection. Unfortunately not really possible and not worthwhile.
2. Add two other selection criteria: The Pitch Quality and Support available. Both are excellent suggestions and I have done these based on my two recent articles, the PQI piece and the Support Index one.
3. Create for each country an all-time best Home XI. This request has a lot of validity since there are many players who are kings while they travel while being only average at home. Wally Hammond, Graeme Smith and Stephen Fleming are shoo-ins for their respective teams' away tours but stand very little chance of getting selected for their home series.
4. Look at strengthening the wicketkeeper selection. Unfortunately not really possible and not worthwhile.
In addition to the above, I changed the basis of weighing the key metrics. All this is explained later. As I had done last year, this article will also be divided into two parts. However the split will be unlike the last one: The first part will cover Australia, England, India and West Indies, covering both the home and away careers of players, while the second part will cover South Africa, New Zealand, Sri Lanka and Pakistan. This will enable the user comments to be presented in a logical manner.
Full postLet's cut to the T20I chase
An analysis of the trends and factors that impact results in T20 internationals
Anantha Narayanan
15-Apr-2017
In a recent fascinating article, Kartikeya Date dissected the T20 winning strategies with some nifty number work, which showed that seemingly good strategies were not so sound; nothing really could be taken for granted. The crux of the matter is that the ODI and T20 formats need widely varying strategies but the basic game, in terms of runs-scoring opportunities, is virtually identical.
In this article, I am looking at the T20 results from a more general team angle, which will, in a way, complement Kartikeya's analysis.
My analysis is limited to T20 internationals (T20Is). As of March 31, 2017, 603 T20Is had been played. However, five of these matches were abandoned without a ball being bowled and another nine ended as "no result". That leaves us with 589 matches. Of these 22 matches were decided using D/L calculations, making analyses of these matches somewhat futile. There were nine ties, with tie-resolution mini-contests in place for each.
Full postThey stood on the burning deck
A selection, using the metric High Score Index (HSI), of the finest individual innings to come in unsuccessful chases in ODIs
Anantha Narayanan
11-Mar-2017
It is unfortunate that the Indian viewers are not able to view matches currently being played in New Zealand. Notwithstanding the early start time, there were many viewers who watched cricket from 6am onwards. However one has to make allowance for broadcasting equations. The inability to watch becomes more painful when one hears of innings like the one Marcus Stoinis played recently. Just a perusal of the scorecard will indicate that this was among the greatest ODI innings of all time (Yes, it is true: this classic is in the 14th position in my ODI list of greatest innings ever). Why does Stoinis not play for Australia more often?' As I was writing this article, we missed another classic: Martin Guptill's match-winning 180 not out out of 280.
My mind went back 30 years. During the 1987 World Cup, Dave Houghton of Zimbabwe played a similar innings in Hyderabad, when he single-handedly defied the New Zealand team and nearly guided Zimbabwe to a famous win. I may reveal now that the very first article I ever penned was one titled: "A Hobson's choice: Which innings do you choose?" comparing the then (and for that matter, now) three classics: Viv Richards' 189 not out, Kapil Dev's 175 not out and Houghton's 142. Over 200 articles later, I still have that piece with me, unpublished but treasured.
I started thinking that I should do an anecdotal piece on such innings, which I term as the "burning deck innings". There is a lot of magic in watching those innings that failed ultimately but kept the adrenaline flowing right through. Winning is certainly something but a lone desperate show evokes equal empathy. In this article I will look at such "burning deck" innings. This is my relief article, free of tables.
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