It began exactly three months ago,
in Ranchi. Coming into that game, Australia had
won only eight of their last 33 ODIs going back to the start of 2017, and were still coming to terms with their two best batsmen serving a year-long ban. Their captain
Aaron Finch was struggling to buy a run, and India's fast bowlers, away and at home, had been ruthlessly zoning in on his frailties against the incoming ball.
India had just beaten Australia 2-1 in an ODI series in their own backyard, and were leading the five-match return series 2-0.
Everything turned around in Ranchi, where Finch made 93 in a 32-run win for Australia. Since that innings, Finch has
averaged 71.44. Since that match, Australia have won ten ODIs on the bounce, the last two at this World Cup with a full-strength squad including
David Warner and
Steven Smith.
This Australian resurgence has challenged what had been a pretty set narrative in the months preceding the World Cup, that England and India would be the teams to beat, with the rest trailing some way behind. Nope, Australia have snarled. We're here too.
Their opponents on Sunday, however, won't be scared. India occupy a different level of ODI pedigree to the two teams Australia have beaten at this tournament so far. Their batsmen aren't going to get out slogging when the required rate is under control, as West Indies' did. Their bowlers, you suspect, wouldn't have let them turn 79 for 5 to 288 all out. India will give Australia plenty to worry about - if not fear - themselves. Jasprit Bumrah is bowling like a demon, the wristspinners are whirring away menacingly, Rohit Sharma has begun his tournament
with a match-winning hundred, and Virat Kohli is, well, Virat Kohli.
Australia WWWWW (last five completed matches, most recent first)
India WLLLW
Usman Khawaja's form leading up to the World Cup - five fifties and two hundreds in his last ten innings, at the top of the order - prompted Australia to push him to No. 3 and leave out Shaun Marsh to accommodate David Warner and Steven Smith. His first two innings at the tournament, however, have brought him scores of 15 and 13, and awkward dismissals on both occasions. Can he turn his form around against one of the best bowling attacks in the world?
India's last ODI visit to The Oval wasn't a happy one, but their defeat in the
Champions Trophy final included one incredible innings:
Hardik Pandya's 43-ball 76, with six sixes and a control percentage of
100. Pandya was out injured during India's recent home series against Australia, and his subsequent return to fitness and peak hitting form has been one of the team's biggest positives going into the World Cup.
Australia have played the same XI in both their games so far, and though some of their players haven't hit top form just yet, there isn't a compelling reason to make any changes just yet.
Australia (probable): 1 David Warner, 2 Aaron Finch (capt), 3 Usman Khawaja, 4 Steven Smith, 5 Glenn Maxwell, 6 Marcus Stoinis, 7 Alex Carey (wk), 8 Nathan Coulter-Nile, 9 Pat Cummins, 10 Mitchell Starc, 11 Adam Zampa
Given Australia's
troubles against the short ball against West Indies, India could look to bring Mohammed Shami - who can hurry batsmen with the bouncer, as he showed during a six-wicket haul in the
Perth Test in December - into their attack. Who could he come in for, though? Bhuvneshwar Kumar would be the obvious option, but without him India's tail will begin at No. 8, unless they also replace one of the wristspinners with Ravindra Jadeja. Playing all three quicks could also be an option, if the conditions point in that direction.
India (probable): 1 Rohit Sharma, 2 Shikhar Dhawan, 3 Virat Kohli (capt), 4 KL Rahul, 5 MS Dhoni (wk), 6 Kedar Jadhav, 7 Hardik Pandya, 8 Bhuvneshwar Kumar, 9 Kuldeep Yadav, 10 Jasprit Bumrah, 11 Yuzvendra Chahal
The Oval has been among the
most high-scoring grounds in England since the 2015 World Cup, and a flat pitch can be expected once again. The weather is expected to be dry with a bit of wind about.
"Winning those last three games in India gave us some self-belief we can beat this side in their home conditions and that gives us real confidence coming into a game like this."
Australia captain Aaron Finch
"See, short ball for any batsman is not easy. Even the best guy who can pull the ball, who can hook the ball, will find it difficult. We understand that. And probably we have the bowling attack to do that. Having said that, you don't want to be carried away with that."
Rohit Sharma weighs in on the biggest tactical trend of this World Cup