New Zealand look for batting lift

Saturday, January 17, 2015
Start time 2.00pm (0100 GMT)

For much of the tour, Sri Lanka seemed to find ways to lose, but with a flat pitch underfoot and the sun at their backs in Hamilton, shoes switched feet and tables were turned. A run-out epidemic swept through the New Zealand middle order, and batsmen were being carried out of their crease almost involuntarily, by their own legs. Sri Lanka were slick enough in the field to capitalise, which has not always been the case in the past three weeks.

New Zealand will seek to shake the match off like a bad dream. Brendon McCullum has already said his team would almost certainly not concede four run-outs again in the series, and that their running between the wickets remains in good order despite the collapse.

More worrying, perhaps, has been the top order's over-reliance on McCullum in the first two matches. Each of Sri Lanka's top six batsmen has crossed fifty at least once some time in the tour (in either the Tests or ODIs), but in Ross Taylor and Tom Latham New Zealand are carrying two batsmen who are yet to make a substantial contribution, though they have had several starts. With Williamson unavailable again in Auckland, Latham and Taylor are the hosts' Nos.3 and 4. As the opposition fields Kumar Sangakkara and Mahela Jayawardene in those positions, this is perhaps where New Zealand are presently giving away most ground.

Sri Lanka have concerns of their own too, particularly with the ball, but in Hamilton found the means to scramble together an adequate bowling effort, via heavy reliance on their teeming spin stocks. The attack has been stripped of much of its menace by Lasith Malinga's absence, and though Nuwan Kulasekara has regained his rhythm, the other seam bowlers have not adequately supported him.

(last five matches, most recent first)

 New Zealand LWWWL
Sri Lanka WLWWL

Adam Milne is a bowler of serious potential, regularly hitting speeds of 150kph off an easy, flowing action that coaches hope will keep him largely injury-free. He has become more disciplined in the past two years, but he still does not possess the skill that might transform him into one of the most menacing bowlers on the planet. He was a handful on a Hagley Oval track with a little juice, but was fodder for Tillakaratne Dilshan on a belter at Seddon Park. New Zealand have named him in their World Cup squad, and expect him to give the attack an edge, and will be hoping he gets something out of an Eden Park track that is expected to be quick and bouncy.

When Thisara Perera is putting balls into orbit, or making crucial incisions in the early overs, there is little doubt in his value to the team, but he has often frustrated with long, dry stretches, in which he is more a liability than an asset. He was dropped from the XI during Sri Lanka's mid-year series against England and South Africa, but returned to lay waste to Pakistan, taking nine wickets in three matches. In 16 outings since, though, he has managed only six wickets at 69.66. His economy rate has been 6.31 during that time. He played one outstanding knock against England in December, but Sri Lanka need Perera to be a more consistent threat with the ball, if they are to make a charge at the World Cup.

Tim Southee and Mitchell McClenaghan are both available for selection in Auckland, and will likely enter the side, with Matt Henry almost certain to make way. Either Adam Milne or Trent Boult may also be replaced. The New Zealand side has not announced if the family illness that saw Grant Elliott miss the Hamilton match will keep him out of the Auckland game as well, but if he cannot play, Daniel Vettori will likely bat at No.5 again.

New Zealand (probable) 1 Martin Guptill, 2 Brendon McCullum (capt), 3 Tom Latham, 4 Ross Taylor, 5 Grant Elliott/ Daniel Vettori, 6 Luke Ronchi (wk), 7 Corey Anderson, 8 Nathan McCullum, 9 Tim Southee, 10 Mitchell McClenaghan, 11 Adam Milne/Trent Boult.

Sri Lanka will be tempted to play their full phalanx of spin bowlers again, but may revert to playing an extra seamer if the pitch is unsuited to slow bowling. The small square boundaries at Eden Park may tilt the balance in favour of an extra quick, of whom Suranga Lakmal is the likeliest to enter the XI.

Sri Lanka (probable) 1 Dimuth Karunaratne, 2 Tillakaratne Dilshan, 3 Kumar Sangakkara (wk), 4 Mahela Jayawardene, 5 Angelo Mathews (capt), 6 Lahiru Thirimanne, 7 Thisara Perara, 8 Jeevan Mendis, 9 Nuwan Kulasekara, 10 Sachithra Senanayake, 11 Suranga Lakmal/ Rangana Herath.

Light showers are forecasted for the evening in Auckland, which may mean Duckworth-Lewis comes into play. The pitch itself is a drop-in, and though the most recent match there saw 314 runs scored by each team; the previous two games did not feature a total in excess of 200.

"I saw the average of the team's run-outs over a season and it's about four. So on the positives, it's nice to have got them all out of the way in one go."