A crack at redemption for West Indies

When the first round of matches began, and the minnows lined up to get thrashed by the giants, the only upset that seemed even remotely on the cards was West Indies being done in by Bangladesh. Well, not only did Brian Lara and his team get past that hurdle with a degree of comfort, they've also beaten a struggling South Africa and are now only a game away from having a shot at the trophy, and partially redeeming a season which has so far gone horribly wrong.

Standing in the way, though, is a resurgent Pakistan outfit which, since Bob Woolmer took over as coach in June, has displayed a commitment and steel that isn't the norm with Pakistan cricket. On current form, it's clear that Inzamam-ul-Haq would fancy his chances of making it to Saturday's final. To be fair to West Indies, their recent one-day record isn't half as bad as their Test stats - in their last 25 ODIs, they've won 12 and lost only nine. Their bowlers have struggled for penetration in Tests, but in the less-demanding world of one-day cricket, where dot-balls are almost as valuable as wickets, their collection of part-time trundlers has fitted in perfectly.

Where West Indies have become extremely formidable, though, is in their ability to chase down almost any target. In their last nine games when they have chased over 225, they have won six times, and Australia, South Africa and England have all been at the receiving end.

Lara's prowess at the crease needs no elaboration, but the revelation has been the manner in which the support cast have spruced up their act. Ramnaresh Sarwan and Shivnarine Chanderpaul have regularly played pivotal roles, while Chris Gayle's stand-and-deliver style has often allowed the team to get off to blistering starts. Add the contributions of Ricardo Powell down the order, and it's easy to see why West Indies' preferred mode of approach is to win the toss and field first.

Here's more data which suggests that the toss could have a critical bearing on the match: in games between the two sides over the last ten years, the team winning the toss has won 22 and lost three, while the last time Pakistan lost after winning the toss against West Indies was more than ten years ago - back in October 1993.

Even if Lara does call correctly, his team will still find it tough to put it across a Pakistan outfit which is, finally, showing signs of fulfilling its potential. Since the Asia Cup began, they have won seven out of ten games, but even more than that, it's their approach which suggests a huge change in attitude.

Discipline in the field was never one of Pakistan's strengths, but under Woolmer, the intensity has gone up a notch, the number of shocking misfields has considerably reduced - there were still a couple in their win against India on Sunday - and the bowlers seem finally to have understood the virtues of line and length. The batting continues to be iffy, though. Inzamam and Yousuf Youhana bailed them out on Sunday, but the West Indian bowlers will fancy their chances against the top three. Shoaib Malik has had a fabulous run at No. 3, but most of those runs have come in flat, subcontinental conditions. His last three innings in England have fetched him a sum total of seven runs.

Their aren't too many question-marks over Pakistan's bowling attack, though, and while Lara v Shoaib Akhtar is the obvious key contest, the outcome of the match could well be decided by how the rest of Pakistan's bowling fare against the West Indian line-up. A West Indies-Pakistan encounter may not quite have the zing of an Australia-England clash, but there are enough entertainers in both sides to make the game an enthralling contest.

Pakistan (probable): 1 Imran Farhat, 2 Yasir Hameed, 3 Shoaib Malik, 4 Inzamam-ul-Haq (capt), 5 Yousuf Youhana, 6 Abdul Razzaq, 7 Shahid Afridi, 8 Moin Khan (wk), 9 Naved-ul-Hasan, 10 Shoaib Akhtar, 11 Mohammad Sami.

West Indies (probable): 1 Chris Gayle, 2 Wavell Hinds, 3 Ramnaresh Sarwan, 4 Brian Lara (capt), 5 Shivnarine Chanderpaul, 6 Ricardo Powell, 7 Dwayne Bravo, 8 Courtney Browne (wk), 9 Ryan Hinds, 10 Ian Bradshaw, 11 Corey Collymore.