Dark horses Bangladesh not expected to challenge

Sporting Index have once again come up with their usual array of special markets for the forthcoming two-Test series between England and Bangladesh, which gets underway on Thursday at Lord's.

Obviously expecting an England 2-0 win, they go 47-48 on England's series win index. This offers 25 points for a win, 10 for a draw and none for a defeat. Therefore, if you bought England at 48, you would win twice your stake if they won 2-0 - but the downside is clearly costly. Bangladesh, in contrast, are just 1-2. If you bought Bangladesh at 2 - perhaps hoping for rain to intervene - then you would win eight times your stake if the tourists managed to scrape a draw in one of the two Tests.

However, perhaps something that will take the eye will be the more specialist markets, such as "Trade Deficit" where Sporting estimate by how many runs England will outscore Bangladesh in the first innings of the two Tests. Sporting Index have set the market at 570-600, which is very high for that particular market. It is probably based on Bangladesh's poor results in their 36 Test matches, particularly away from home where they have lost 17 of their 19 Tests, with just two draws. In that time, Bangladesh have been outscored by an average of 188 runs per first innings. However, in their last ten matches away from home, the average comes down to 138.8, and on three of those occasions, they have actually outscored the opposition in the first innings. If that average was to repeat itself, then Sporting's quote of 570-600 would be far too high.

Of Sporting's other markets, one of my favourites is "Tails of the Unexpected". This concerns the aggregate number of runs scored by numbers 8, 9, 10 and 11. For England, the market is just 46-54, while for Bangladesh it's 150-160. The reason England's is so low, at least relatively, is because they are expected to win easily, and therefore may not actually bat more than twice in the entire series.

The Bangladesh quote, however, bears closer inspection. If you take it as read that they will bat twice in each of the two matches (weather permitting), then the chances are that you have 16 innings that will count. In fact, in their past four Test series, Bangladesh's total "Tails of the Unexpected" reads as follows: 270, 205, 171 and 425. Each of those were two-Test series, and each of them is higher than Sporting's quote.

Player markets
The player markets are fairly reflective of the fixed odds available, with Marcus Trescothick and Andrew Strauss topping the list with total series run quotes of 170-180. In addition to their strong ability, averages and their form, the fact that as openers and that they will probably bat twice, is a significant factor in their prices. Michael Vaughan, who'll bat at three or four, is available at 140-150, the same as Ian Bell, while Graham Thorpe and Andy Flintoff, who will bat at five and six, are given just 100-110.

In contrast, the Bangladesh batsmen are given much lower quotes, with Sporting believing that captain Habibul Bashar will make only 94-102 runs. Considering that he averages almost 35 in Tests, and that the tourists are likely to bat twice in each Test, the quote would appear to be on the generous side to buyers. Mohammad Ashraful is given a quote of just 70-78, the same as Rajin Saleh.

In the bowling markets, Steve Harmison is quoted at 115-125, where you receive 10 points per wicket and a 25-point bonus for each five-wicket haul. Matthew Hoggard is 100-110. Flintoff and Ashley Giles are just 60-70, while Tapash Baisya and Mashrafe Mortaza top the Bangladesh bowling markets on just 42-47.