England not as short as you'd expect

After a superb all-round performance in Durban, England might have expected to be long odds-on to go on to win the four-Test series against a faltering South Africa side. But despite taking a 1-0 lead with two matches to go, they can still be backed at 8/11 to hold on to the lead.

That's pretty interesting because they outplayed South Africa throughout the match in Durban and are chock-full of confidence, as they should be, going into the last two games.

Their top six looks remarkably solid (at least if Paul Collingwood can shake off his finger injury in time for the third Test, which starts on Sunday) and the bowlers, as they did in the Ashes last summer, are taking it in turns to come good.

Graeme Swann is enjoying the best period of his career by a country mile and the South Africans don't appear to be able to cope with him, so far at least. By contrast, Graeme Smith's decision-making appears poor - why was Makhaya Ntini playing ahead of Frederic de Wet, who almost bowled the hosts to victory in the first Test?

De Wet looks likely to come back in for the third Test and so he should, but South Africa have drifted right out to 9/2 to win the series, which means, of course, taking both the remaining two Tests. They are well capable of winning both, but England are proving to be very resilient these days and it will be a massive achievement if Smith's men do come from behind to win. A drawn series is 11/5.

A 1-1 draw is the series favourite at 11/5, with a 2-0 victory for England next in the correct score markets at 7/2. It's 4/1 that they win it 2-1 and then 9/2 that South Africa win Tests three and four to record a 2-1 triumph of their own.

You can get 6/1 with bet365 that the next two matches are drawn, leaving England as 1-0 winners, while it's 3/1 that the tourists go on to win both the remaining games.

Original preview
England go into the four-Test series against South Africa, starting on December 16, full of confidence after their one-day series win. Now we all know that one-day success is irrelevant to Test performances these days but the fact that England performed well in their least comfortable form of the game bodes well for their chances of repeating the series win they achieved last time they went to South Africa in 2005.

That 2005 triumph - a come-from-behind 2-1 victory - was the platform for the Ashes series win over Australia later that summer. This time, England go into the series having already regained the Ashes and full of confidence, which is half the battle.

South Africa are a fine side, particularly at home, and bet365 make them 4/7 to win the series, but at 10/3, it is England who are the value.

Andrew Strauss's side have showed some nice form in the build-up to the series and though a couple of the bowlers have had the odd niggle, they should be fully fit come the start of the first Test at Centurion.

The addition of Jonathan Trott to the top order has really solidified the batting and the return from injury of Kevin Pietersen is a massive boost. When you think that England won the Ashes without the help of Pietersen after the first couple of Tests, it shows that they are a more than decent Test outfit.

Moreover, if Pietersen regains top form in the coming weeks, as he is likely to do so, then South Africa's vulnerable bowling attack - in the words of their former great Shaun Pollock - could be exposed.

Aside from the 2-1 win in 2005, England were beaten 2-1 in 2000 and 1-0 in 1995, showing that South Africa are tough to beat, but also that there is traditionally very little between the two sides.

South Africa's strength is in their batting, led by their captain Graeme Smith, but with Jacques Kallis struggling to be fit for the first Test, even that may be dissipated a little and England will want to make a quick start on one of their most successful South African grounds, of late at least.

In the correct score markets, a 2-1 win for the home side is the 9/2 favourite, with a 2-1 win on offer at 6/1, the same price as a 1-1 draw. South Africa are 13/2 to win 3-0, while England are 17/2 to nick it 2-1.

It's 10/1 that South Africa win 3-1, 11/1 that they only win 1-0 and 12-1 that it's 2-2. England are 14/1 to win 2-0, 18/1 to win it 1-0, 25/1 to triumph 3-0 and 80/1 for a whitewash of 4-0. If you fancy South Africa to win all four, you'll only get 16/1.

Hot to Trott?
When Pietersen came to South Africa with England a few years ago he was given a shocking reception by the crowds but he responded brilliantly and the same can be expected of Trott, another South African by birth.

Trott is a very likeable cricketer, though, and the chances are the crowd will not give him quite as hard a time as they did Pietersen. What is likely, though, is that he will respond by batting brilliantly, as he has done ever since he came into the side in the heat of the battle in the final Test against Australia, when he made a century.

Trott is just third favourite at 7/2, behind Pietersen at 13/5 and Strauss at 3/1. Now Strauss in particular, and Pietersen, will both have more time at the middle, in theory, than Trott, who bats down the order and that has to be taken into consideration when betting on top series runscorer. But Trott is all class and 7/2 is a good price for me.

Behind them, Alastair Cook - who will be delighted the one-dayers are over - is 9/2, while Ian Bell is 7/1 and Paul Collingwood is 8/1, with Matt Prior an 11/1 chance. If England's top order struggle, then Prior could be good value, but I expect them to perform this time.

For South Africa, Smith is the obvious favourite at 5/2, with AB De Villiers 10/3 and Kallis, despite the injury concerns, a 9/2 chance. Hashim Amla is also 9/2, JP Duminy is 6/1 and Ashwell Prince can be backed at 15/2.

I expect another tough, close series between the two but the fact that it begins in Centurion could play into England's hands, for they have drawn there twice and won once in the three visits since South Africa were readmitted to the world arena in the early 1990s.

There won't be much in it, but England can pinch the series, and either by 1-0 or 2-1, I'd say.