England tail fails to wag

The action at Lord's last week has seen plenty of moves in some of Sporting Index's series spread markets, in particular the "Tails of the Unexpected", which as I've said before, is one of my favourite markets. The market concerns the total number of runs scored by a team's No 8, 9, 10 and 11 across the five-Test series.

Having offered England at 325-345 before the start of the first Test, Sporting now make Michael Vaughan's side 300-315, after an unimpressive performance with the bat by the lower order. Australia, in contrast, are now 350-365 having been just 280-300 before a ball was bowled at Lord's.

As previously outlined this market is often linked strongly to the outcome of the series. For example, if Australia win 5-0, it's highly unlikely that their own last four batsmen will have batted twice in each innings and therefore you'd expect their make-up is likely to be lower than England whose side will, barring declarations, have been bowled out twice. However, conversely, when a team is on top, the lower order often contribute well to their cause and the make-up can be surprisingly high and that's what happened in the first Test.

The real spanner in the works, for both buyers and sellers, comes when a nightwatchman is used, as it pushes a more specialist batsman to bat at No 8.

In the last three home Ashes series, England's make-ups were 317 (2001), 269 (1997) and 467 (1993). Two of those series had six Tests, so the overall average per game is 62, which would translate to 310. But the make-up from the first Test was 42.

Australia's make-ups were 89 (2001), 408 (1997) and 376 (1993), making an overall average of 49.48, translating to 247 this series, but they are ahead of that schedule, having rattled up 85 in the opening game.

Of the rest of the specials, Sporting have cut their highest individual score market to 203-210 from its original 213-220. The top score at Lord's was 91, and the top scores in the last three home Ashes series were 173, 207 and 200.

The lowest all-out score is now 132-138, from 135-145, which looks about right given England's 155 all out in the first innings at Lord's. The highest innings total is now 555-570, from 580-595. Finally "Stop at a stumping", which began at 25-28, is now 34-37, with ten points per Test without one. Shane Warne has 30 victims through stumpings in 589 overall, while Giles, who may not keep his place in the team, has just eight in 127.

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