Tactics board: India's top order vs Boult and Henry, Santner's threat in the middle overs
Where the India vs New Zealand game could be won and lost
ESPNcricinfo staff
21-Oct-2023
Can India stop the in-form Devon Conway? • Associated Press
India have been dominant so far in this World Cup, but they now face a team that has always performed very well against them on the big stage. New Zealand's record in World Cups - ODIs and T20Is - against India is impressive: they have eight wins and only three losses. The last time India beat New Zealand in an ICC tournament was way back in 2003. Can India win this crucial encounter and the key battles that are likely to decide the match?
The Powerplay face-off
The semi-final of the 2019 World Cup, in which New Zealand beat India by 18 runs, was pretty much decided in the powerplay. India were 5 for 3 in the fourth over making it hard for them to chase down the target of 240 set by New Zealand.
This could be one of the biggest challenges for the Indian batters on Sunday. Rohit Sharma, Virat Kohli and Shubman Gill have not been able to dominate the opening pair of Trent Boult and Matt Henry. India's batters have not faced them in ODIs since that semi-final four years ago, so how they take these two bowlers on in Dharamsala will set the tone for the rest of the innings.
The Devon Conway threat
New Zealand's Devon Conway has had a great start to his ODI career but the numbers suggest there is a way to keep him quiet. Get your right arm quicks bowling at him from around the wicket. While he averages 46.87 facing right-arm pace from over the wicket, he averages only 21.00 when he's bowled to from round the wicket. Will the Indian pace attack try to exploit this trend?
Bossing the middle overs
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Both teams have dominated the middle overs with bat and ball at this World Cup. With the bat, New Zealand have had the likes of Daryl Mitchell, Tom Latham and Glenn Phillips score in crucial situations. Latham averages 54.44 against India, having scored two centuries and five fifties, and he has countered Kuldeep Yadav well. With the ball, New Zealand have had Lockie Fergusson and Mitchell Santner take important wickets.
Similarly, India have seen the likes of Kuldeep and Jadeja dominate the middle overs with the ball. The Indian lower-middle order is yet to be tested in this tournament and the game against New Zealand could be one where they may get their first opportunity. Kuldeep holds the key for India against New Zealand in this phase, having taken 35 wickets at an incredible average of just 17.17.
Mitchell Santner's role
Mitchell Santner is to New Zealand what Kuldeep is to India. With 11 wickets at an economy of 4.4 and an average of 17.17, he has been the stand-out bowler in this tournament. However, Santner will be looking to improve his record against India in this format. He averages 60.69 against India and strikes once every 75.3 deliveries. His economy has been excellent at 4.83. Santner will be crucial in the middle overs for breakthroughs as well as to control India's tempo.