IPL 2025 scenarios: GT and RCB one win away from playoffs, MI in control of their fate
A look at the qualification chances of the seven teams which are still in contention for a place in the playoffs
S Rajesh
13-May-2025 • 4 hrs ago
With IPL 2025 set to resume on Saturday after an eight-day gap, here is a look at the qualification chances of the seven teams which are still in contention for a place in the playoffs.
Gujarat Titans
Played: 11, Points: 16, NRR: 0.793
Remaining matches: DC (a), LSG (h), CSK (h)
Played: 11, Points: 16, NRR: 0.793
Remaining matches: DC (a), LSG (h), CSK (h)
Gujarat Titans (GT) are just one win away from making the playoffs - 18 points will assure a team of a top-four finish. However, if they lose their three remaining games they could get knocked out as four teams can still finish on 17 or more points. Titans have a favourable itinerary too, with their last two games scheduled at home in Ahmedabad, where they have a formidable 4-1 record so far. Their net run rate is currently second only to Mumbai Indians (MI), which could help them with qualification or a top-two finish.
Royal Challengers Bengaluru
Played: 11, Points: 16, NRR: 0.482
Remaining matches: KKR (h), SRH (h), LSG (a)
Played: 11, Points: 16, NRR: 0.482
Remaining matches: KKR (h), SRH (h), LSG (a)
Like GT, Royal Challengers Bengaluru (RCB) are also one win away from securing their place in the playoffs. RCB can also make the top four with 16 points if other results go their way. However, two wins will not yet guarantee a top-two finish as two other teams - GT and Punjab Kings (PBKS) - can still finish with 20 or more points. GT currently have a better NRR, while PBKS can finish on 21 if they win all three remaining matches.
Punjab Kings
Played: 11, Points: 15, NRR: 0.376
Remaining matches: RR (a), DC (Jaipur), MI (Jaipur)
Played: 11, Points: 15, NRR: 0.376
Remaining matches: RR (a), DC (Jaipur), MI (Jaipur)
PBKS need two wins to be certain of qualification. At the moment, 17 points won't assure qualification as five teams can get to 17 or more: if, for instance, they beat Rajasthan Royals (RR) but lose to Delhi Capitals (DC) and MI, and if DC beat GT but lose to MI, then RCB, GT, MI, DC and PBKS can all finish on 17 or more points. However, PBKS can qualify with 17 points if they beat DC and lose their other two matches, as in that case only one of MI or DC can finish on 17 or more points, since they play each other.
PBKS can sneak through even if they lose all three matches and stay on 15, but for that to happen DC will have to lose their two other matches, so that they stay on 15, and LSG will have to win no more than two of their three games. It'll then come down to run rates between PBKS and DC (and Kolkata Knight Riders, if they win both matches) for one spot.
Mumbai Indians
Played: 12, Points: 14, NRR: 1.156
Remaining matches: DC (h), PBKS (Jai)
Played: 12, Points: 14, NRR: 1.156
Remaining matches: DC (h), PBKS (Jai)
Despite the loss to GT, MI are still in control of their destiny, as wins in their last two matches will ensure a place in the playoffs. For them to go through on 16 points, though, they'll need help from other results, while defeats in their two remaining games will eliminate them. MI also have an excellent net run rate of 1.156, which could yet be crucial if qualification comes down to that.
Delhi Capitals
Played: 11, Points: 13, NRR: 0.362
Remaining matches: GT (h), MI (a), PBKS (Jai),
Played: 11, Points: 13, NRR: 0.362
Remaining matches: GT (h), MI (a), PBKS (Jai),
A lucky point due to a washout against SRH has given DC a valuable point in their qualification bid. Fifteen will push them into the top four only if several other results go in their favour, while 17 could also place them at the mercy of other results - it's still possible for five teams to finish on 17 or more points. Wins in all three remaining matches will ensure qualification, but that will require a huge reversal of form, given that they have only won one of their last five matches.
Kolkata Knight Riders
Played: 12, Points: 11, NRR: 0.193
Remaining matches: RCB (a), SRH (Del)
Played: 12, Points: 11, NRR: 0.193
Remaining matches: RCB (a), SRH (Del)
KKR are on the brink of elimination as the maximum they can finish with is 15; there are already two teams who have more than 15, while PBKS are on 15 with three games to go.
Assuming that those three teams go through, KKR will have to hope that MI lose their two remaining matches and stay on 14. Since one of their matches is against DC, who are currently on 13, that will take DC to 15. The fourth spot will, in that scenario, come down to an NRR battle between KKR and DC.
On the other hand, if PBKS lose their three remaining matches, then MI will go past 15, while DC, PBKS and KKR could all be on 15 points, fighting for the fourth spot.
Lucknow Super Giants
Played: 11, Points: 10, NRR: -0.469
Remaining matches: SRH (h), GT (a), RCB (h)
Played: 11, Points: 10, NRR: -0.469
Remaining matches: SRH (h), GT (a), RCB (h)
LSG are struggling for momentum, having lost three in a row, and four of their last five. The best they can do now is win their three remaining matches, finish on 16 points, and hope that one or more of the in-form teams suffer a sudden reversal of fortunes. If they lose another match, though, they will be eliminated. Their terrible NRR of -0.469 doesn't help their cause either.
S Rajesh is stats editor of ESPNcricinfo. @rajeshstats