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Stats Analysis

Scenarios - How Royal Challengers, Giants and Warriorz can qualify

We also break down how Capitals could sneak past Mumbai into the top spot

S Rajesh
S Rajesh
With only six games to go in the league stage of the WPL, only Mumbai Indians have officially qualified for the playoffs. Here is the look at the qualification prospects of the others teams.
Are Delhi Capitals through to the playoffs?
Capitals are currently on eight points from six games, with matches coming up against Mumbai and UP Warriorz. If they lose those two matches, it is possible that Warriorz and Gujarat Giants can catch them on eight points. However, Capitals are so far ahead on net run rate that they are certain to finish among the top three.
Currently, they have an NRR of 1.431, compared to -0.196 for Warriorz and -2.523 for Giants. For Capitals to finish fourth, their NRR will have to drop below both their rivals. While it is possible for Warriorz to go past Capitals on NRR, it is almost impossible for Giants to overcome the huge deficit in just a couple of games.
If, for instance, Capitals lose their last two games by a combined total margin of 200 runs (chasing 160 each time), their NRR will only drop to -0.311. Giants will then have to win their two games - against Royal Challengers Bangalore and Warriorz - by a combined total margin of around 235 runs to go past Capitals' NRR. Apart from such margins being almost impossible to achieve, a huge defeat for Warriorz will also adversely impact their NRR, which they will then have to make up through big wins against Mumbai and Capitals.
Thus, it's safe to infer that Capitals are almost certainly through to the playoffs. Their best case, though, will be for Mumbai to lose their last three games so that they can somehow sneak the top spot.
Can Royal Challengers Bangalore qualify?
Giants' win against Capitals has made it tougher for Royal Challengers, since four teams can now get to eight points. The best case for them will be for Warriorz to lose their remaining games and stay on four points, and for Giants to beat Warriorz and move to six. Then, if Royal Challengers win their last two, they can get to six points and take the third place ahead of Giants on NRR, since their current NRR of -1.55 is better than that of Giants.
If they lose on Saturday then they are out of the tournament.
What about the qualification chances of Warriorz and Giants?
Both these teams are locked on four points, though Warriorz clearly have the advantage, with an extra game in hand and a much better NRR. Both teams play on Saturday - Warriorz take on table-toppers Mumbai while Giants face bottom-placed Royal Challengers. Even if Warriorz lose, they'll still be in the mix, but if they win and Giants lose, it'll almost certainly be the end of the road for the latter.

S Rajesh is stats editor of ESPNcricinfo. @rajeshstats