Scenarios - How Royal Challengers, Giants and Warriorz can qualify
We also break down how Capitals could sneak past Mumbai into the top spot
Capitals are currently on eight points from six games, with matches coming up against Mumbai and UP Warriorz. If they lose those two matches, it is possible that Warriorz and Gujarat Giants can catch them on eight points. However, Capitals are so far ahead on net run rate that they are certain to finish among the top three.
Giants' win against Capitals has made it tougher for Royal Challengers, since four teams can now get to eight points. The best case for them will be for Warriorz to lose their remaining games and stay on four points, and for Giants to beat Warriorz and move to six. Then, if Royal Challengers win their last two, they can get to six points and take the third place ahead of Giants on NRR, since their current NRR of -1.55 is better than that of Giants.
Both these teams are locked on four points, though Warriorz clearly have the advantage, with an extra game in hand and a much better NRR. Both teams play on Saturday - Warriorz take on table-toppers Mumbai while Giants face bottom-placed Royal Challengers. Even if Warriorz lose, they'll still be in the mix, but if they win and Giants lose, it'll almost certainly be the end of the road for the latter.
S Rajesh is stats editor of ESPNcricinfo. @rajeshstats