Searching for the next great fast bowler

A couple of weeks back, The Numbers Game had focussed on the plight of finger spinners, and how their effectiveness has gradually dwindled over the decades. Let's now run the rule over the fast bowlers.

The consensus is that fast-bowling resources in this decade are the thinnest in the last 35 years. The 1970s had Dennis Lillee, Jeff Thomson, Bob Willis, Ian Botham and John Snow; the 1980s were adorned by West Indies' magnificent assembly line of fast men (far too many to name individually), plus Imran Khan, Richard Hadlee, Lillee, Willis and a host of others; in the 1990s, Curtly Ambrose, Courtney Walsh, Allan Donald, Glenn McGrath and the two Ws from Pakistan kept the fast-bowling flame burning bright. In the 2000s, though, the glow has visibly diminished: Ambrose, Walsh, Akram, Waqar and Donald retired within an 18-month period, Shaun Pollock lost much of his sting, and the replacements obviously found it tough to measure up to the standards set by their predecessors.

The table below confirms this: in the 2000s, fast bowlers average more than 32 per wicket, while in the last five decades they touched the 30-mark just once. In fact, to find out the last instance when they gave away so many per wicket, you'd have to go back to the 1930s, when they averaged 32.89. However, it's pertinent to note that batsmen have had a much better time in the 2000s compared to the last 50 years, and wicket-taking has generally been more difficult. The fact that runs are now scored at a faster rate than they used to be is borne out by the fact that though the strike rate of the bowlers is more-or-less constant over the last 25 years, they now concede more runs per wicket than they used to. (To exclude part-time bowlers from the analysis, the numbers below only take into account bowlers who bowled at least 90 balls per match.)

In fact, the last really outstanding year for fast bowlers was in 2000, when their 870 wickets came at 27.09 apiece: Dominic Cork, Jason Gillespie, Glenn McGrath, Brett Lee, Allan Donald, Curtly Ambrose, Courtney Walsh and Shaun Pollock all averaged less than 20 runs per wicket that year. Since then, the runs per wicket for pace bowlers has always been on the wrong side of 30, with 2004 being an especially poor year - their average of 35.15 is the worst for fast bowlers in any single year since the war.

The table below lists the fast bowlers with the best averages since 2000 (minimum qualification 50 wickets). Many of the bowlers are either no longer playing, or on their last legs, or struggling to stay injury free over long periods. Clearly, it's a good time to be an opening batsman.

Blow hot, blow cold
Pakistan's batting came in for much flak in the recently concluded four-Test series in England, but despite a couple of dismal collapses, Inzamam-ul-Haq and co. had their moments - in seven innings, the team topped 400 three times, of which twice they exceeded 500. As one of the readers of this column, M Usman Sharif, points out, it continues their recent trend of consistently amassing big totals: in 18 Tests since 2005, they have gone past 400 11 times - in terms of Tests per 400-plus score, Pakistan is on top of the list, with only England anywhere close to them.

Pakistan's problem, though, is that they are as likely to post a huge total as they are to collapse in a heap. On the England tour, they were wiped out for 119 at Old Trafford and for 155 at Headingley, which is in keeping with their consistently inconsistent performances. Since 2005, they have fallen for less than 250 on 11 occasions, that's as many times as they have topped 400. Contrast that with the Australians, who've only less than 250 in a completed innings three times in 21 matches, while for New Zealand and India the numbers are only five and seven. Despite these failures, though, Pakistan average 40.18 runs per wicket during this period, second only Australia's 41.58.