Sri Lanka's chance to get even

Australia dominate head-to-head clashes
At first glance, Sri Lanka's overall Test record against Australia appears highly uninspiring. In 20 Tests, they have won just one match and lost 13. But the fact is that Australia have played far fewer Tests against Sri Lanka than against other major Test teams. Since 1990, the two teams have played just 16 matches with Australia winning ten. Sri Lanka, who are generally very dominant in home series, have struggled in Australia, where they have lost eight and drawn two of ten matches. While most other teams have found the going tough in Sri Lanka, Australia have an excellent record there, winning five Tests and losing one. The scoreline, though, fails to suggest how close the matches have been. Two of the Test wins have been by margins of less than 30 runs: in the first Test in Colombo in 1992, Australia, who were trailing by 291 runs on the first innings, fought back to bowl Sri Lanka out for 164 and win by 16 runs. On the other occasion, in 2004, they snatched a 27-run win in the second Test in Kandy after being bowled out for 120 in the first innings.

Australia won the recently concluded ODI series 3-2, which was exactly the margin by which they won the ODIs on their previous tour to Sri Lanka. It's highly unlikely, though, that they'll repeat their 3-0 margin of the 2004 Test series. That margin, while emphatic in itself, was all the more creditable because Australia trailed after the first innings in all three Tests. In the first two, after being bowled out for low scores, they responded with superb performances in the second innings to bat Sri Lanka out of the contest. However, Sri Lanka will fancy their chances this time, given Australia's poor Test form of late.

A far cry from the dominant Australian team
The last few years have seen numerous changes in the Australian team. In the current squad, only Ricky Ponting remains from the side that won in Sri Lanka in 2004. During the process of rebuilding, Australia have endured a difficult phase since the start of 2008, winning 18 and losing ten Tests. In sharp contrast, between 2000 and the end of 2007, they won 67 and lost ten matches with an incredible win-loss ratio of 6.70. Part of the problem has been the inability of the batsmen to convert the fifties into centuries. Among the top five Test teams, Australian batsmen have the lowest conversion rate (0.38). In comparison, during their heyday (2000-2007), Australian batsmen had a conversion rate of 0.71. Sri Lankan batsmen, however, have a better conversion rate of 0.59 which is second only to that of South Africa (0.75). In terms of the difference between batting and bowling averages, South Africa (11.14) and England (10.08) are on top while Australia are fourth with a corresponding figure of 2.43. Australia's bowling has been more potent than Sri Lanka, though, and they boast a wickets-per-match figure of 16.8 as compared to Sri Lanka's 14.5.

Irreplaceable greats
There is a strong reason why the trophy the two sides are playing for is named so. Not only are Shane Warne and Muttiah Muralitharan the two most successful bowlers in Test history, they are also outstanding performers in Tests in Sri Lanka. Muralitharan has picked up 493 of his 800 wickets in home Tests and been Sri Lanka's greatest match-winner. He was superb in the 2004 series against Australia with 28 wickets in three Tests at an average of 23.17 but was overshadowed by Warne, who on his comeback following a ban, grabbed 26 wickets at a stunning average of 20.03 with four five-wicket hauls. Warne's brilliant display was the key as Australia managed to turn the tables around in all three Tests after conceding a first-innings lead on each occasion.

Australia have tried hard to unearth quality spinners after Warne's retirement but have struggled. After Warne's retirement, Australian spinners average nearly 47 at a strike rate of 82.50 balls per wicket. In a country where overseas spinners other than Warne have hardly made any impact (average of 43.27 and strike rate of 87.45), the lack of a high-quality spinner could prove to be a problem for Australia. Sri Lanka have played only six Tests after the retirement of Muralitharan, but the lack of incisiveness in the attack in his absence was visible in the rain-affected home series against West Indies. Chris Gayle scored 333 in the first Test and the visitors managed to comfortably draw all three Tests. Although Rangana Herath and Ajantha Mendis posess the experience, they have not yet demonstrated the ability to run through opposition line-ups like Muralitharan regularly did.

Australia light on spin
Few teams have been able to succeed in Sri Lanka with a pace-dominated attack. Sri Lankan batsmen have handled opposition pace bowlers and spinners extremely effectively over the years. However, from the evidence of the recent ODI series, where the Australian pace bowlers were able to extract steep bounce and movement, it might not be smooth sailing for the home batsmen. With only the uncapped Nathan Lyon and the inexperienced Michael Beer on the spin front, the pace bowlers including Mitchell Johnson and Ryan Harris will have to step up for Australia.

Seekkuge Prasanna and Ajantha Mendis impressed in parts in the ODI series and caused a few problems for the Australian batsmen. On wickets that are likely to assist spin, Sri Lanka have quite a few choices, including Suraj Randiv and the experienced Herath. Shaminda Eranga's accuracy was a revealation in the ODI series and he could provide Sri Lanka with the much-needed aggression on the pace front.

Ponting's form could be crucial
Barring Ponting, none of the Australian batsmen have played a Test in Sri Lanka, and they'll face a challenge on the spin-friendly wickets. Shane Watson, who has been in prime form in the last two years, has consistently proved his ability to play pace and spin aggressively. In the absence of an experienced opening partner, he will be vital at the top of the order along with Ponting, who looks to have regained form after stepping down from captaincy. Ponting, the highest run-getter in Australia-Sri Lanka Tests, has however, been vulnerable at the start of his innings and has a low average and balls-per-wicket figure against pace bowlers. Michael Clarke, the top run-getter in the ODI series, has always demonstrated excellent footwork while facing up to spinners, and will hold the key in the middle order. Michael Hussey, who averages over 65 against spin, has had his problems against pace and averages just 32.77 against fast bowlers in Tests since 2008.

Tillakaratne Dilshan, who has been instrumental in providing Sri Lanka with quickfire starts, scores at well over four runs per over against pace and spin. His aggression and lack of footwork will, however, present the Australian fast bowlers with plenty of chances to dismiss him. Kumar Sangakkara and Mahela Jayawardene, Sri Lanka's most prolific batting pair, will be Australia's biggest threat. Their partnership record against Australia has been disappointing, though, with an aggregate of just 117 runs in five innings. However, their experience in home conditions, combined with the ability to score quickly off pace and spin, will give Sri Lanka an edge going into the series.

Two contrasting venues
Among the three venues that will host the Tests, Galle and the SSC, Colombo, have hosted more than one Test in the past. (Pallekele has hosted only one.) In fact, Galle and the SSC have hosted the most Tests among all Sri Lankan venues since 2008. While Galle has provided a fair bit of help for bowlers, SSC has been one of Sri Lanka's most batting-friendly surfaces. The average in each innings of recent matches (since 2008) at SSC has been higher than at Galle. Pace bowlers have had something to cheer about at Galle (average 36.64) but the story is very different at SSC, where they average 72.84. Galle has been a result-oriented venue with only one draw in the last five Tests. However, the toss could be crucial at Galle since all four Tests have been won by the team batting first.