The numbers point to Sri Lanka

Sri Lanka are the favourites for the triangular Unitech Cup, and with good reason: they are a competitive one-day side in most conditions, but in the comforts of home environs, they transform into an awesome team, capable of beating the best. Since 2000, they have won a staggering 45 out of 60 matches, three of which were rained out - exclude those, and their winning percentage is a stunning 79. India, on the other hand, have won ten out of 23 this decade, but three of those victories were against Zimbabwe, Bangladesh and the UAE. India also have a poor recent record against Sri Lanka, winning just one of their last six games played in Sri Lanka..

Going by past record, though, the team which could struggle the most is South Africa: they've lost nine out of 13 matches in Sri Lanka since 2000, and, even worse, they have lost every time against the two other teams in the competition: against Sri Lanka their record is a dismal 0-8, while the only time they played India in this country - in the Champions Trophy in 2002 - they choked hopelessly and turned a comfortable win into a ten-run defeat.

The table below shows the performances of the Indian batsmen against Sri Lanka in Sri Lanka: Yuvraj Singh is the only one whose stats against them are better than his career numbers, while Mohammad Kaif has underperformed against them the most.

While the Indian batsmen haven't done that badly, the problem has been containing the two Js from Sri Lanka - Sanath Jayasuriya and Mahela Jayawardene both average more than 13 runs higher against India than they do in their entire ODI career. With Jayawardene in the form of his life in the last few months, the task for India's inexperienced bowling attack will be an enormous one.

Sri Lanka's batting mainstays have certainly enjoyed themselves against India, but what about their bowling superstars? Chaminda Vaas's stats against India are almost identical to his career numbers, but Muttiah Muralitharan has struggled for wickets against India at home, averaging nearly 36 per wicket. His economy rate, though, remains impeccable.

The one Indian bowler who has enjoyed bowling to the Sri Lankans in their backyard has been Harbhajan Singh: in 14 matches, he has nabbed 21 wickets at an average and an economy rate which are both better than his corresponding career stats. Interestingly, his numbers are in stark contrast to that of Anil Kumble, who has been in the one-day wilderness for a while now: Kumble's 12 wickets against Sri Lanka in Sri Lanka have come at nearly 67 apiece, with an economy rate touching five and over.

In the absence of Graeme Smith and Jacques Kallis, the responsibility of getting the runs will rest largely on Herschelle Gibbs and Boeta Dippenaar. Gibbs averages 47 in eight ODIs in Sri Lanka, but a huge chunk of his 329 runs have come in two innings against India; in five matches against Sri Lanka, he has only managed 89 runs at 17.80. Shaun Pollock has a reasonably good record with both bat and ball in Sri Lanka, but the slow pitches there have completely dented Makhaya Ntini's venom - in ten matches, he averages nearly 37, and goes at more than five per over.