Why England will keep the Ashes

'Can they do it? Yes. But it will be the most severe test of their character.' © Getty Images

You certainly get your money's worth with England: exhilarating highs, recurring fits of depression and individual performances that should encourage Rupert Murdoch to think he has made a very good investment indeed.

At the end of term there is cause for optimism, apart from England's continued run of miserable form in the limited-overs game. So, pack your bucket and spade, cross your fingers and get ready for another white-knuckle ride against the Australians. The World Cup is far enough away to forget about for the moment. And, if you polled most fans, their priority would overwhelmingly be England's defence of the Ashes. Can they do it? Yes. But it will be the most severe test of their character.

Duncan Fletcher will reflect on a year of not so much living dangerously as bizarrely. How could the team who performed so well against all the odds to come back against India in Mumbai in March return home and bat and bowl like outclassed amateurs against Sri Lanka - then climb the heights again in the Test series against Pakistan? The coach might be a little concerned.

England have not much time left in which to develop not only consistency but to rediscover the intensity of 2005 if they are not to be royally taken to the cleaners in the most anticipated rematch since Joe Louis went back in with Max Schmeling. While Fletcher has shaped a side to be feared rather than merely respected, they are not yet reliable enough, session to session, at the very highest level. It is the quality that has separated Australia from the herd for so long.

That said, the reason I think England can do it is because the ageing Australians are not quite the ruthless killing machine they were, even at home. And because Monty Panesar, Ian Bell and Alastair Cook will come into their own, three players who have had fantastic seasons. If Kevin Pietersen finds his form and Andrew Flintoff is fit, Fletcher will be happy enough. He might even manage a smile. Those imponderables aside, I think the series will finish level at two Tests apiece, which will constitute a result for England and a massive disappointment for the opposition. There is slightly more quality in the Australian line-up (look at the averages and the results), but England are the team going forward rather than clinging to reputations.

There was enough evidence this summer to suggest the likes of Panesar, Bell, Cook, Paul Collingwood and Chris Read deserve to play in this company. Maybe Stuart Broad will tour, and he could be a revelation on Australian wickets - tall, strong and accurate. And here's a wild card option: Adil Rashid. He won't make the squad; cricket selectors are nature's sceptics, wanting much more than the slim evidence of the outstanding young Yorkshire legspinner's contributions in his debut season. But they might park him with a club out there, just in case their bowling stock is ravaged. Stranger things have happened.

Of real concern to England is Marcus Trescothick's lingering run of ordinary scores and psychological hiccups. He always seemed one game away from a breakthrough century and, when I spoke to him midseason, he thought his game was in reasonable shape. But England need his runs not his optimism.

What they could also do with, of course, is the return of Michael Vaughan, Flintoff and Simon Jones, the three players who, the grand all-round efforts of everyone else notwithstanding, were pivotal to England's reclaiming the Ashes.

You can't overestimate the contribution Vaughan's captaincy made. He outflanked Ricky Ponting at nearly every turn - to the point where the Tasmanian's hold on the captaincy looked shaky when the team returned to a shocked and disappointed constituency.

Flintoff ought to be back for the Ashes, but Vaughan and Jones will not. For them, the clock has moved a little took quickly.

But that is the nature of the modern game. The late Fred Trueman boasted he rarely got injured and could bowl all day, but I doubt even he would have thrived under the workload heaped on international fast bowlers now.

Rod Marsh spoke often of the need to have a backup squad of quality pacemen. Kevin Shine, building on the splendid work done by his predecessor Troy Cooley, also recognises the need and talks in a most upbeat way about Broad, Chris Tremlett, Graham Onions, Sajid Mahmood and Amjad Khan.

It is the quick men who are the key to winning any match at any level and Steve Harmison and Matthew Hoggard, who will lead the attack, had maddeningly up and down seasons. Hoggard won't find the movement in the air he does at home and, if Harmison doesn't hit an early rhythm (the five Tests are packed into six weeks), Ponting, Justin Langer and Matthew Hayden will murder the new ball. And all the murmurs indicate Australia's wickets this winter will be more unresponsive than usual. It could be a tough six weeks for the fast men.

Which brings us back to the man of the summer. If there is one sure sign the Australians are worried about England it is in the repeated proncouncements by their leading players - Ponting, Adam Gilchrist, Shane Warne - on what they are going to do to Monty. Maybe they will.

But what they might not be prepared for is his quite remarkable thirst for the job. There can't be a spinner in the game who loves his work more than Panesar. He would gladly bowl from both ends all day. If England's fast bowlers falter, the skipper can turn with confidence to a young man whose accuracy is already his trademark and whose subtle variations are respected by the world's best - even Ponting.