Sri Lanka, West Indies control their own fates

West Indies and England are on top on the group with four points each, but West Indies are better placed between the two teams, since they have not yet played Afghanistan, the weakest team in the group. However, if West Indies lose to South Africa and beat Afghanistan, it may not guarantee them a place in the semi-finals as three teams could finish on three wins each. That could happen if South Africa win their last two games - against West Indies and Sri Lanka - and England beat Sri Lanka. In that case, West Indies, South Africa and England will all finish on three wins. West Indies' current NRR is marginally ahead of South Africa's, and a big win against Afghanistan will help their cause even if they lose to South Africa.

However, if Sri Lanka beat England on Saturday then six points will be enough for West Indies, as in that case only one of Sri Lanka or South Africa will be in a position to get to six.

England are currently second on the table with four points, but their NRR is below those of West Indies and South Africa. A win against Sri Lanka will leave them well-placed for qualification, but they could still miss out if South Africa win their two remaining games, and West Indies beat Afghanistan. In that case, England, South Africa and West Indies will all have six points, but England's NRR will almost certainly be below those of the other two teams.

If England lose to Sri Lanka they will almost certainly miss out. Though there is a possibility of South Africa and Sri Lanka finishing on four points as well, England's NRR will most likely be below that of South Africa's.

South Africa have two tough games coming up, against West Indies and Sri Lanka. Wins in both will almost certainly see them through - even if England beat Sri Lanka - but if South Africa lose one of their games, they will need other results to go their way to qualify. For a start, England will have to lose to Sri Lanka, for an England victory will push them to six points, and West Indies will get there too if they beat Afghanistan, regardless of their result against South Africa.

However, if England lose to Sri Lanka, then four points might be enough for South Africa provided they lose to West Indies and beat Sri Lanka. In that case, England, Sri Lanka and South Africa will all be on four points, but South Africa could finish with the better NRR. The results margins for the three teams against Afghanistan could be the key factor here: South Africa beat them by 37 runs, while England won by 15, and Sri Lanka with only seven balls to spare.

Sri Lanka are in a similar position to South Africa - they have beaten Afghanistan but lost to one of the stronger teams - which means they too have two difficult games coming up, against England and South Africa. Since their NRR is not as good as South Africa's, they need a convincing win in one of their two remaining games to significantly push up their chances. For instance, if Sri Lanka beat England by 30 runs on Saturday, their NRR will go up to around 0.40. For them to go through with four points, though, they will need South Africa to lose heavily to West Indies, so that they stay ahead of them on NRR.

However, Sri Lanka are the one team, apart from West Indies, who do not need to depend on other results to get through. If they win their last two games and move up to six points, then both England and South Africa will get knocked out.