Home (dis)advantage

The IPL, through its sheer longevity, throws up a large database of information for statisticians to work with, and for fans to spot trends. Here is one such observation. This season, the home-away format returned to the IPL after a blip last year.

The format endeavours to the dilute the advantage of playing conditions, and it has meant that this season we have now had a couple of teams playing each other twice in a space of a few of days. The thought process advocating this schedule suggests that rivalry and the sense of ‘revenge’ are tools that supersede the threats of boredom and repetition.

This season we have had several instances of teams winning one game apiece when pitted against each other, home or away. While this could be for various reasons, here is one: teams have been struggling to win home matches.

Chepauk and Sawai Mansingh are fortresses that have been breached for Chennai Super Kings and Rajasthan Royals, while Deccan Chargers’ poor home record continues. Kings XI Punjab and Mumbai Indians have won more away than at home. It isn’t that teams haven’t managed to win at home, but teams have largely not managed to dominate home matches.

As we look to pinpoint reasons, let us not overlook the fact that the Twenty20 format is possibly the only format that provides equal chances to both teams, irrespective of strengths on paper or the conditions. Crowd pressure, the pressure to win home matches could be account, to a degree, for the results. Dig deeper though, and you will find that it has more to do with the teams’ inability to read tracks.

While Pune and Mumbai have seemingly read too much into the pitches at their home venues, Rajasthan and Bangalore have underestimated their pitches. Twenty20 surfaces aren’t expected to change too much over the 40 overs, and you can sense the captains have attempted to weigh tracks on the basis of factors like dew, past scores, teams’ ability to chase totals.

While a total of 180 could be match-winning in Pune or Kolkata, it would be just about par in Bangalore or Jaipur. The struggle to identify ‘par’ totals has been a bit of problem for most teams this season, all the more reason why chasing has been a better or preferred option.

The home-away format should suggest better success rates at home, but that has not been the case this season. With the middle muddle on the points table leaving teams in very competitive positions at the moment, ‘home wins’ could be the parameter that separates them as we move in the final stages of the league.