Chennai Super Kings vs Deccan Chargers, 2nd semi-final, Mumbai April 21, 2010

Recent form points to Deccan

Madhusudhan Ramakrishnan
A statistical analysis of Deccan Chargers and Chennai Super Kings ahead of their IPL semi-final
35

Chennai Super Kings have been the most consistent team across all three editions of the IPL but this year, they've stuttered and only just managed to get to the semis. Deccan, the defending champions, were ordinary through the first half of the tournament before raising their game to win five in a row. Deccan, though, have the edge over Chennai in their head to head encounters, winning both matches in 2010 - by 31 runs in Chennai and by six wickets in Nagpur.

The table below shows the performance of the two teams in both batting and bowling. It's clear that Chennai Super Kings have clearly outperformed Deccan when we take into account the difference between the batting run-rate and the bowling economy rate.

Overall run-rate and economy rate
Team Matches Run-rate Economy rate Run-rate difference
Chennai Super Kings 14 8.42 8.17 0.25
Deccan Chargers 14 8.00 8.19 -0.19

During the Powerplay overs, both teams are pretty even in terms of scoring rates, but Deccan have lost more wickets, which is an indication of poor top-order performance.

Batting performance during Powerplay (overs 1-6)
Team Runs scored Balls faced Run-rate Wickets lost Average
Chennai Super Kings 675 504 8.03 19 35.52
Deccan Chargers 665 504 7.91 26 25.57

On the bowling front though, Deccan Chargers have performed better than Chennai with a better economy rate and a higher tally of wickets.

Bowling performance during Powerplay (overs 1-6)
Team Runs Conceded Balls bowled Economy rate Wickets taken Average
Chennai Super Kings 652 504 7.76 20 32.60
Deccan Chargers 621 504 7.39 24 25.87

In the last six overs, there is a considerable difference in the batting performances of Chennai and Deccan. Chennai have prospered due to some excellent late hitting by M Vijay, Albie Morkel and MS Dhoni. They clearly have a better record in terms of scoring rate and batting average while Deccan's performance has been below par towards the end of the innings.

Batting performance in the last six overs
Team Runs scored Balls faced Run-rate Wickets lost Average
Chennai Super Kings 718 455 9.46 29 24.75
Deccan Chargers 646 465 8.33 39 16.56

Deccan's fast bowlers have performed much better than their Chennai counterparts. Chaminda Vaas, Ryan Harris and Harmeet Singh have shown consistency throughout the league stage. In the spin department though, the Chennai spinners R.Ashwin, Shadab Jakati and Muttiah Muralitharan have held their own, even though Deccan have the leading wicket-taker, Pragyan Ojha, in their ranks.

Performance of fast bowlers and spinners for Chennai
Type of bowler Runs conceded Balls bowled Economy rate Wickets taken Average
Pace 1292 862 8.81 35 36.20
Spin 965 795 7.01 38 24.44

Performance of fast bowlers and spinners for Deccan
Type of bowler Runs conceded Balls bowled Economy rate Wickets taken Average
Pace 1182 831 8.33 49 23.55
Spin 728 544 7.83 26 27.30

One of the reasons for Chennai's resurgence has been the remarkable bowling of R Ashwin, who has been extremely economical and has picked up quite a few wickets despite bowling during the Powerplay overs. Deccan, meanwhile, have been assisted ably throughout by Ojha. The performances of these two could be one of the keys to the outcome of the semi-final.

Comparison of bowling performance of R Ashwin and Pragyan Ojha
Player Name Runs conceded Balls bowled Economy rate Wickets taken Average
R.Ashwin 255 240 6.37 12 21.25
Pragyan Ojha 380 306 7.45 20 19.00

Deccan have the advantage of having played at the DY Patil Stadium before, but their record at the ground so far is quite discouraging - played two, lost two. On both occasions, they failed in run-chases: Kolkata beat them by 11 runs in the first match of the tournament, while Mumbai comfortably defended their total of 172, winning by 41 runs. Their record at this venue isn't the only reason they'll prefer to bat first if they win the toss: in the six matches they've batted first in IPL 2010, they've won five times. On the other hand, they've only won three out of eight games chasing.

Chennai's performance, though, seems to indicate that they don't particularly favour batting first or chasing. They have won and lost four games while batting first, and while chasing, they have won and lost three times.

Comments have now been closed for this article

  • on April 23, 2010, 17:49 GMT

    chennai should open with albie morkel and one down raina, second hussey,third dhoni, fourth badri, fifth asusual definetly will clinch the title despite the bowling strengh of mi

  • sri1ram on April 22, 2010, 20:32 GMT

    Yup, I was absolutely right! As usual :-) In the final my prediction is the same with different percent probabilities. The toss winning team will sure as hell go for batting and get a 75% chance winning. But the chasing team, if MI will have a 60% chance of winning (given Chennai's bowling issues) while Chennai batting second will have a 90% chance of losing. But then, you never know, this final may be the closest finale that we may have seen yet! All the best to both MI and CSK!

  • gaurang_4040 on April 22, 2010, 14:17 GMT

    I don't care who is going to win today's match. The important thing is, the Indian players who are going to play in WC must get going. So, I'd better support Rohit, Raina, Dhoni and not the CSK or CD. There is no point in aggrevating regionalism by means of IPL n later failing as a National team as happened in last world cup.

  • shankar1986 on April 22, 2010, 13:59 GMT

    Pranav, you first check the stats before pointing others. win matches for their team like Naman Ojha, Suman, Umesh Yadav, Trivedi. T. Suman was named MOM in 2 consecutive matches for his good batting. He is not playing some random shots. It is Badrinath who is playing ugly scoops and reverse sweeps of fast bowlers. If those shots comes off it looks good. But if it doesn't it looks embarrassing.

  • on April 22, 2010, 13:41 GMT

    We have seen the ball spin quite a lot when Kevin Peterson was bowling so I would advice Deccan Chargers to go with a spinner - Venugopal Rao who bowled brilliantly for the first two seasons of IPL. Sumanth was is always included in the squad neither bats nor bowls so i strongly suggest the Chargers to replace Sumanth with Venugopal so that there is an extra option of off spin apart from Ojha & Rohit..

  • on April 22, 2010, 13:27 GMT

    Go CSK !!! agree with others that Murali is a much better option given the pitch at DY patil !!

  • kishore_4DC on April 22, 2010, 13:18 GMT

    DC, please play to your full potential today.. Take VenuGopal Rao - he did very well last time. Sure he will today, keep faith. No doubt B.Sumanth is a good fielder but he is too young and inexperienced to take pressue in this game. Also he was struggling in the last game to play strokes. Make no mistake, Please take Venu. Dwayne Smith can be good option ahead of M.Marsh since he is experienced and also athletic. He can bowl and hit really big ones. Even Gibbs would be a good choice, he had a good score in the first match we played CSK. He will add depth and exp to the batting. It's just that he needs to get in a little. Dont forget his innings against Aussies chasing 432 in a one day match. He is a match winner on his day. This will relieve pressure from the other team mates..

  • on April 22, 2010, 12:47 GMT

    agree completely with dilscoop ... judging by the amount it turned in the last game, the XI you have posted, seems the best combination for CSK ... though my pick for the final batsman would be either patel/karthik/anirudha ... it's the bowling that's been the weak link in the team, and hopefully the trio of spinners turn things around to win it for the side ...

  • kishore_4DC on April 22, 2010, 12:07 GMT

    Gilly, you are the best captain. I am sure you are due for a big innings and no better occassion than to take your team to finals. You are going to do well today and you are a big match player. The DC team now doing well as a unit with contributions from batting - Super Symo, Reliable Rohit, Super Suman and on the bowling side we have Classy Vassy, Harmeet's Magic, Ominous Ojha..

    All the best DC.

  • kishore_4DC on April 22, 2010, 12:01 GMT

    All the best DC. You have reached Semis after a magnificient turn around winning 5 out of 5. Keep faith in your ability and do your best. Put your heart out and and enjoy the game. Just concentrate on this game, lets think about finals later.. dont worry about your previous failures as every team had their own share of problems. So, thats normal and part of the game. We are doing very good at the moment. Do well.

  • on April 23, 2010, 17:49 GMT

    chennai should open with albie morkel and one down raina, second hussey,third dhoni, fourth badri, fifth asusual definetly will clinch the title despite the bowling strengh of mi

  • sri1ram on April 22, 2010, 20:32 GMT

    Yup, I was absolutely right! As usual :-) In the final my prediction is the same with different percent probabilities. The toss winning team will sure as hell go for batting and get a 75% chance winning. But the chasing team, if MI will have a 60% chance of winning (given Chennai's bowling issues) while Chennai batting second will have a 90% chance of losing. But then, you never know, this final may be the closest finale that we may have seen yet! All the best to both MI and CSK!

  • gaurang_4040 on April 22, 2010, 14:17 GMT

    I don't care who is going to win today's match. The important thing is, the Indian players who are going to play in WC must get going. So, I'd better support Rohit, Raina, Dhoni and not the CSK or CD. There is no point in aggrevating regionalism by means of IPL n later failing as a National team as happened in last world cup.

  • shankar1986 on April 22, 2010, 13:59 GMT

    Pranav, you first check the stats before pointing others. win matches for their team like Naman Ojha, Suman, Umesh Yadav, Trivedi. T. Suman was named MOM in 2 consecutive matches for his good batting. He is not playing some random shots. It is Badrinath who is playing ugly scoops and reverse sweeps of fast bowlers. If those shots comes off it looks good. But if it doesn't it looks embarrassing.

  • on April 22, 2010, 13:41 GMT

    We have seen the ball spin quite a lot when Kevin Peterson was bowling so I would advice Deccan Chargers to go with a spinner - Venugopal Rao who bowled brilliantly for the first two seasons of IPL. Sumanth was is always included in the squad neither bats nor bowls so i strongly suggest the Chargers to replace Sumanth with Venugopal so that there is an extra option of off spin apart from Ojha & Rohit..

  • on April 22, 2010, 13:27 GMT

    Go CSK !!! agree with others that Murali is a much better option given the pitch at DY patil !!

  • kishore_4DC on April 22, 2010, 13:18 GMT

    DC, please play to your full potential today.. Take VenuGopal Rao - he did very well last time. Sure he will today, keep faith. No doubt B.Sumanth is a good fielder but he is too young and inexperienced to take pressue in this game. Also he was struggling in the last game to play strokes. Make no mistake, Please take Venu. Dwayne Smith can be good option ahead of M.Marsh since he is experienced and also athletic. He can bowl and hit really big ones. Even Gibbs would be a good choice, he had a good score in the first match we played CSK. He will add depth and exp to the batting. It's just that he needs to get in a little. Dont forget his innings against Aussies chasing 432 in a one day match. He is a match winner on his day. This will relieve pressure from the other team mates..

  • on April 22, 2010, 12:47 GMT

    agree completely with dilscoop ... judging by the amount it turned in the last game, the XI you have posted, seems the best combination for CSK ... though my pick for the final batsman would be either patel/karthik/anirudha ... it's the bowling that's been the weak link in the team, and hopefully the trio of spinners turn things around to win it for the side ...

  • kishore_4DC on April 22, 2010, 12:07 GMT

    Gilly, you are the best captain. I am sure you are due for a big innings and no better occassion than to take your team to finals. You are going to do well today and you are a big match player. The DC team now doing well as a unit with contributions from batting - Super Symo, Reliable Rohit, Super Suman and on the bowling side we have Classy Vassy, Harmeet's Magic, Ominous Ojha..

    All the best DC.

  • kishore_4DC on April 22, 2010, 12:01 GMT

    All the best DC. You have reached Semis after a magnificient turn around winning 5 out of 5. Keep faith in your ability and do your best. Put your heart out and and enjoy the game. Just concentrate on this game, lets think about finals later.. dont worry about your previous failures as every team had their own share of problems. So, thats normal and part of the game. We are doing very good at the moment. Do well.

  • kalyanbk on April 22, 2010, 12:00 GMT

    Chennai's fortune depends on the bowling of Albie Morkel who has leaked the most fours in the tournament. Hayden is struggling. So I will be radical. Open with Vijay and Parthiv Patel. Foreign picks Morkel, Kemp, Bollinger, Murali.

  • six_and_out on April 22, 2010, 10:17 GMT

    All the best Chennai. The best team would be to drop KEmp take Murali and play Arun Karthik. Agreed it would be a spin heavy attack but Kemp is not bowling much and express pace anyways. One could also consider Balagi for Tyagi instead of adding an extra batsman between these two and Gony its purely choosing lesser of the three evils .

  • on April 22, 2010, 7:15 GMT

    Nice suggestions from Dilscoop. I believe CSK team takes note of it. Local pacers from CSK are useless better include Muralidharan and add one more batsman like Srikkanth or Badani. Even they can open with Murali and let Haydos come lateror give Hussey another chance instead of Hayden . CSK weakness is local pacemen. Sorry Tyagi/Balaji/Sharma and Gony - more chances given to you, but shame manytimes u could'nt complete ur quota. you leak more runs. Also hope dhoni opens bowling with Ashwin or Bollinger unlike last match where Tyagi set the tone of leaking runs and added pressure on others . Best Wishes

  • MeeRu-MaNia on April 22, 2010, 5:46 GMT

    both teams are evenly matched.... both have got big match players who on their day can take the match away from the opposition...

    ....... the team winning tonight will also win the final.....

    MeeRu baba ki prediction.... wait n watch

  • on April 22, 2010, 5:20 GMT

    DC will go through to the semis as CSK are less good performers when it comes to crunch situations.....

  • dilscoop on April 22, 2010, 4:56 GMT

    The way KP got to turn the ball yesterday should make Ashwin and Murali lick their chops - I hope CSK does not make the blunder of dropping murali. CSK should play 3 spinners - murali, ashwin & jakati. Albie and bollinger should be the other 2 bowlers. Vijay, raina, dhoni, badri, Hayden (too late to try hussey as opener) - the last slot will be a batsman - may be Anirudha (why not Badani for experience!!) should complete the 11. Dhoni's achilles heal has always been his field placements - I have seldom seen him employ a deep fine third man where so many runs are leaked. I hope he gets this one right this game. Toss will be vital - hard to chase anything over 160. CSK has been one of the least talked about teams in the media (NDTV, times now, CNN) - media darlings have been MI, DD & KKR - even the game CSK thrased KKR - KKR got more mention than CSK :-( Symonds, rohit & suman key batsman - vaas & Ojha the key bowlers for DC. Hope it will be the midas man Dhoni vs sachin final. Go CSK

  • CricCarzyFan on April 22, 2010, 4:51 GMT

    @Shiva Sankar... I don't think you are following IPL. I am not a fan of any team... I watch IPL hoping to see some Indian youngsters perform and win matches for their team like Naman Ojha, Suman, Umesh Yadav, Trivedi. T. Suman was named MOM in 2 consecutive matches for his good batting. He is not playing some random shots. It is Badrinath who is playing ugly scoops and reverse sweeps of fast bowlers. If those shots comes off it looks good. But if it doesn't it looks embarrassing.

  • dalov on April 22, 2010, 4:43 GMT

    chennai is a brilliant all round side. it has got lot of all rounders the only thing is that their bowling its been horrible throughout the tournament if they could affort to bowl well they are the champs.GO CHENNAI!

  • on April 22, 2010, 4:36 GMT

    CSK will win 4 sure MS Dhoni is back in form

  • Shiva_the_destroyer on April 22, 2010, 4:17 GMT

    Pranav, you first check the stats before pointing others. T Suman has a first class average of 24 and T20 26 with a SR of 115.This is something u wud call spectacular, is it?

  • on April 22, 2010, 4:07 GMT

    It all depends on how consistant either of the team will be. while deccan has a sequence of 5 wins hope law of averages wont catch them now / in final.

    Suman and rohit are the key players for deccan more tha gilly(looks like no more clicking) and symmonds alone is not like a pollard anyhow. Bowling options are limited as RP may go for heavy runs with his erratic line though may end up with a wicket/so. Vaas can be more effective. Sjo can be ojha. Rest can shine on their day, If today is so. Dhoni should see when raina can come. Raina and vijay are again the key to success. Hayden is like gilly to deccan now. Hope they play big role today for their teams. Bhadrinath can be contained. Murali can have a big day and overdue as such.

    Its anybody's game overall. But it looks either of them in final makes no diff for MI.

  • satzcrazy1 on April 22, 2010, 4:01 GMT

    Hmmm.. Lots of support for DC.. Wish both the team to do well.. Chennai should play with Haydo,morkie, Dougie & kemp... Hyderabad should play with Gilly, Symmo, Vaasy & Smith... The youngster to watch out from CSK is Vijay, Raina & Ashwin..... For hydi its Rohit & Ohja.... Chennai has better batting lineup and hydi has better bowlers... Lets wait n see.. To me, Raina is a trump player, if he clickc its all over to Hydi... I Cheer for chennai

  • gannyboy on April 22, 2010, 3:26 GMT

    Both Gilly and Haydos are due if both of them click in the semis thn it will be a nailbitting contest for sure. I guess CSK should play Balaji in place of Tyagi as Bala is far better than tyagi or they can go with 3 spinners as there is a lot of spin available. However the toss will hold an edge in this game.

  • on April 22, 2010, 3:14 GMT

    I am sure Deccan has the advantage over Chennai in batting and bowling...

  • on April 22, 2010, 3:08 GMT

    Deccan will have good record against remaining south teams. Gilly also play well in semifinal and final games. But M S Dhoni also the great finisher and cool like Gilly. So I am hoping A really good game here between DC and CSK.

  • mrshree420 on April 22, 2010, 2:59 GMT

    Gilly is surely a big match player and tomorrows game is the one. I am hoping to see something special from his bat. If Dhoni's team is going to win, they will need to contain Gilly and big Symmo, if they fail to do that, they will find them self in an ugly position

  • on April 22, 2010, 2:42 GMT

    T. Suman doesn't play 'random' shots. Watch your cricket well lad, don't just use your tongue. He's a young fella who's played some solid cricketing shots over the last two seasons. Just that no one really noticed him much last year, though DC couldn't have done it without him. And if there's anything that's been unconvincing this year, it's been Chennai. This time they don't look like they deserve to be there- not as much as before.

  • on April 22, 2010, 1:18 GMT

    Deccan continues ....here is the formula 1 loss 3 win and 5 loss and Sequence 7 should win ...

  • sri1ram on April 21, 2010, 22:39 GMT

    I think whoever wins the toss (and elects to bat, no doubt in my mind) have a 99% chance of winning the semis. If Chennai loses the toss and fields, to me they still hold a slight edge while batting second, but only if they manage to keep Deccan below 150. I do not see that happening for Deccan who have choked more chasing than most other teams - but then it's the finals and Chennai bowlers have not been economical overall :-) God, this is too much of an ifs and buts game.

  • on April 21, 2010, 21:50 GMT

    Go go, both the teams are poised to steal the show tomorrow. All the best to MSD and his boys as well as Gilly and his brigade. Hope to see nice fireworks tomorrow both with bat and ball.

    RP singh should be playing now and Gibbs should be sitting on the bench. Lets wait n watch.

  • on April 21, 2010, 21:24 GMT

    Wish you all the best CSK team.. You can do it...

  • cheeseburgers on April 21, 2010, 21:05 GMT

    It's time for Gilly mania folks!!!

  • Nampally on April 21, 2010, 20:59 GMT

    Deccan should go with Gilchrist, Symmonds, Vaas & Smith. The form & batting Performance of 3 "S's" will determine the Deccan total. Hopefully Gilchrist will get a quick 50 and Mishra will add some runs too. In bowling RP needs to tighten up along with 2 Sharmas, Symmonds, Smith, Ojha and Vaas. The Deccan fielding needs to be as good as it was against Delhi except for dropped catches of Collingwood. If Deccan play to their potential it will be a close game and hopefully result in triumph for the Deccan team -- Go Deccan

  • on April 21, 2010, 20:23 GMT

    Chennai All The Way.....

  • on April 21, 2010, 20:20 GMT

    Good one Mad!! It's anybody's game as of now. I'll just hope the sleeping lions in the CSK camp wake up and come alive tomorrow. But, if Deccan have to win I would rather see Gilchrist hitting the ball outa the park than watching a inconvincing T.Suman play some random shots n get lucky. He sucks and yet he's done well for his team..guess tht's what matters at the end.

  • No featured comments at the moment.

  • on April 21, 2010, 20:20 GMT

    Good one Mad!! It's anybody's game as of now. I'll just hope the sleeping lions in the CSK camp wake up and come alive tomorrow. But, if Deccan have to win I would rather see Gilchrist hitting the ball outa the park than watching a inconvincing T.Suman play some random shots n get lucky. He sucks and yet he's done well for his team..guess tht's what matters at the end.

  • on April 21, 2010, 20:23 GMT

    Chennai All The Way.....

  • Nampally on April 21, 2010, 20:59 GMT

    Deccan should go with Gilchrist, Symmonds, Vaas & Smith. The form & batting Performance of 3 "S's" will determine the Deccan total. Hopefully Gilchrist will get a quick 50 and Mishra will add some runs too. In bowling RP needs to tighten up along with 2 Sharmas, Symmonds, Smith, Ojha and Vaas. The Deccan fielding needs to be as good as it was against Delhi except for dropped catches of Collingwood. If Deccan play to their potential it will be a close game and hopefully result in triumph for the Deccan team -- Go Deccan

  • cheeseburgers on April 21, 2010, 21:05 GMT

    It's time for Gilly mania folks!!!

  • on April 21, 2010, 21:24 GMT

    Wish you all the best CSK team.. You can do it...

  • on April 21, 2010, 21:50 GMT

    Go go, both the teams are poised to steal the show tomorrow. All the best to MSD and his boys as well as Gilly and his brigade. Hope to see nice fireworks tomorrow both with bat and ball.

    RP singh should be playing now and Gibbs should be sitting on the bench. Lets wait n watch.

  • sri1ram on April 21, 2010, 22:39 GMT

    I think whoever wins the toss (and elects to bat, no doubt in my mind) have a 99% chance of winning the semis. If Chennai loses the toss and fields, to me they still hold a slight edge while batting second, but only if they manage to keep Deccan below 150. I do not see that happening for Deccan who have choked more chasing than most other teams - but then it's the finals and Chennai bowlers have not been economical overall :-) God, this is too much of an ifs and buts game.

  • on April 22, 2010, 1:18 GMT

    Deccan continues ....here is the formula 1 loss 3 win and 5 loss and Sequence 7 should win ...

  • on April 22, 2010, 2:42 GMT

    T. Suman doesn't play 'random' shots. Watch your cricket well lad, don't just use your tongue. He's a young fella who's played some solid cricketing shots over the last two seasons. Just that no one really noticed him much last year, though DC couldn't have done it without him. And if there's anything that's been unconvincing this year, it's been Chennai. This time they don't look like they deserve to be there- not as much as before.

  • mrshree420 on April 22, 2010, 2:59 GMT

    Gilly is surely a big match player and tomorrows game is the one. I am hoping to see something special from his bat. If Dhoni's team is going to win, they will need to contain Gilly and big Symmo, if they fail to do that, they will find them self in an ugly position