Chennai Super Kings vs Deccan Chargers, 2nd semi-final, Mumbai

Recent form points to Deccan

A statistical analysis of Deccan Chargers and Chennai Super Kings ahead of their IPL semi-final

Madhusudhan Ramakrishnan

April 21, 2010

Comments: 35 | Text size: A | A

Chennai Super Kings have been the most consistent team across all three editions of the IPL but this year, they've stuttered and only just managed to get to the semis. Deccan, the defending champions, were ordinary through the first half of the tournament before raising their game to win five in a row. Deccan, though, have the edge over Chennai in their head to head encounters, winning both matches in 2010 - by 31 runs in Chennai and by six wickets in Nagpur.

The table below shows the performance of the two teams in both batting and bowling. It's clear that Chennai Super Kings have clearly outperformed Deccan when we take into account the difference between the batting run-rate and the bowling economy rate.

Overall run-rate and economy rate
Team Matches Run-rate Economy rate Run-rate difference
Chennai Super Kings 14 8.42 8.17 0.25
Deccan Chargers 14 8.00 8.19 -0.19

During the Powerplay overs, both teams are pretty even in terms of scoring rates, but Deccan have lost more wickets, which is an indication of poor top-order performance.

Batting performance during Powerplay (overs 1-6)
Team Runs scored Balls faced Run-rate Wickets lost Average
Chennai Super Kings 675 504 8.03 19 35.52
Deccan Chargers 665 504 7.91 26 25.57

On the bowling front though, Deccan Chargers have performed better than Chennai with a better economy rate and a higher tally of wickets.

Bowling performance during Powerplay (overs 1-6)
Team Runs Conceded Balls bowled Economy rate Wickets taken Average
Chennai Super Kings 652 504 7.76 20 32.60
Deccan Chargers 621 504 7.39 24 25.87

In the last six overs, there is a considerable difference in the batting performances of Chennai and Deccan. Chennai have prospered due to some excellent late hitting by M Vijay, Albie Morkel and MS Dhoni. They clearly have a better record in terms of scoring rate and batting average while Deccan's performance has been below par towards the end of the innings.

Batting performance in the last six overs
Team Runs scored Balls faced Run-rate Wickets lost Average
Chennai Super Kings 718 455 9.46 29 24.75
Deccan Chargers 646 465 8.33 39 16.56

Deccan's fast bowlers have performed much better than their Chennai counterparts. Chaminda Vaas, Ryan Harris and Harmeet Singh have shown consistency throughout the league stage. In the spin department though, the Chennai spinners R.Ashwin, Shadab Jakati and Muttiah Muralitharan have held their own, even though Deccan have the leading wicket-taker, Pragyan Ojha, in their ranks.

Performance of fast bowlers and spinners for Chennai
Type of bowler Runs conceded Balls bowled Economy rate Wickets taken Average
Pace 1292 862 8.81 35 36.20
Spin 965 795 7.01 38 24.44

Performance of fast bowlers and spinners for Deccan
Type of bowler Runs conceded Balls bowled Economy rate Wickets taken Average
Pace 1182 831 8.33 49 23.55
Spin 728 544 7.83 26 27.30

One of the reasons for Chennai's resurgence has been the remarkable bowling of R Ashwin, who has been extremely economical and has picked up quite a few wickets despite bowling during the Powerplay overs. Deccan, meanwhile, have been assisted ably throughout by Ojha. The performances of these two could be one of the keys to the outcome of the semi-final.

Comparison of bowling performance of R Ashwin and Pragyan Ojha
Player Name Runs conceded Balls bowled Economy rate Wickets taken Average
R.Ashwin 255 240 6.37 12 21.25
Pragyan Ojha 380 306 7.45 20 19.00

Deccan have the advantage of having played at the DY Patil Stadium before, but their record at the ground so far is quite discouraging - played two, lost two. On both occasions, they failed in run-chases: Kolkata beat them by 11 runs in the first match of the tournament, while Mumbai comfortably defended their total of 172, winning by 41 runs. Their record at this venue isn't the only reason they'll prefer to bat first if they win the toss: in the six matches they've batted first in IPL 2010, they've won five times. On the other hand, they've only won three out of eight games chasing.

Chennai's performance, though, seems to indicate that they don't particularly favour batting first or chasing. They have won and lost four games while batting first, and while chasing, they have won and lost three times.

© ESPN Sports Media Ltd.

Posted by   on (April 23, 2010, 17:49 GMT)

chennai should open with albie morkel and one down raina, second hussey,third dhoni, fourth badri, fifth asusual definetly will clinch the title despite the bowling strengh of mi

Posted by sri1ram on (April 22, 2010, 20:32 GMT)

Yup, I was absolutely right! As usual :-) In the final my prediction is the same with different percent probabilities. The toss winning team will sure as hell go for batting and get a 75% chance winning. But the chasing team, if MI will have a 60% chance of winning (given Chennai's bowling issues) while Chennai batting second will have a 90% chance of losing. But then, you never know, this final may be the closest finale that we may have seen yet! All the best to both MI and CSK!

Posted by gaurang_4040 on (April 22, 2010, 14:17 GMT)

I don't care who is going to win today's match. The important thing is, the Indian players who are going to play in WC must get going. So, I'd better support Rohit, Raina, Dhoni and not the CSK or CD. There is no point in aggrevating regionalism by means of IPL n later failing as a National team as happened in last world cup.

Posted by shankar1986 on (April 22, 2010, 13:59 GMT)

Pranav, you first check the stats before pointing others. win matches for their team like Naman Ojha, Suman, Umesh Yadav, Trivedi. T. Suman was named MOM in 2 consecutive matches for his good batting. He is not playing some random shots. It is Badrinath who is playing ugly scoops and reverse sweeps of fast bowlers. If those shots comes off it looks good. But if it doesn't it looks embarrassing.

Posted by   on (April 22, 2010, 13:41 GMT)

We have seen the ball spin quite a lot when Kevin Peterson was bowling so I would advice Deccan Chargers to go with a spinner - Venugopal Rao who bowled brilliantly for the first two seasons of IPL. Sumanth was is always included in the squad neither bats nor bowls so i strongly suggest the Chargers to replace Sumanth with Venugopal so that there is an extra option of off spin apart from Ojha & Rohit..

Posted by   on (April 22, 2010, 13:27 GMT)

Go CSK !!! agree with others that Murali is a much better option given the pitch at DY patil !!

Posted by kishore_4DC on (April 22, 2010, 13:18 GMT)

DC, please play to your full potential today.. Take VenuGopal Rao - he did very well last time. Sure he will today, keep faith. No doubt B.Sumanth is a good fielder but he is too young and inexperienced to take pressue in this game. Also he was struggling in the last game to play strokes. Make no mistake, Please take Venu. Dwayne Smith can be good option ahead of M.Marsh since he is experienced and also athletic. He can bowl and hit really big ones. Even Gibbs would be a good choice, he had a good score in the first match we played CSK. He will add depth and exp to the batting. It's just that he needs to get in a little. Dont forget his innings against Aussies chasing 432 in a one day match. He is a match winner on his day. This will relieve pressure from the other team mates..

Posted by   on (April 22, 2010, 12:47 GMT)

agree completely with dilscoop ... judging by the amount it turned in the last game, the XI you have posted, seems the best combination for CSK ... though my pick for the final batsman would be either patel/karthik/anirudha ... it's the bowling that's been the weak link in the team, and hopefully the trio of spinners turn things around to win it for the side ...

Posted by kishore_4DC on (April 22, 2010, 12:07 GMT)

Gilly, you are the best captain. I am sure you are due for a big innings and no better occassion than to take your team to finals. You are going to do well today and you are a big match player. The DC team now doing well as a unit with contributions from batting - Super Symo, Reliable Rohit, Super Suman and on the bowling side we have Classy Vassy, Harmeet's Magic, Ominous Ojha..

All the best DC.

Posted by kishore_4DC on (April 22, 2010, 12:01 GMT)

All the best DC. You have reached Semis after a magnificient turn around winning 5 out of 5. Keep faith in your ability and do your best. Put your heart out and and enjoy the game. Just concentrate on this game, lets think about finals later.. dont worry about your previous failures as every team had their own share of problems. So, thats normal and part of the game. We are doing very good at the moment. Do well.

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