October 26, 2012

Trial by pace for Australia and South Africa

These two teams have the best fast-bowling stats in Tests recently. A look at their pace stats, and the numbers for their batsmen against pace
  shares 29

In a couple of weeks' time, the focus of the cricket world will shift back to Tests as two of the best sides lock horns with the No. 1 spot on the line: if Australia win the series by any margin, they will regain the top spot, with South Africa dropping to at least No. 3.

One of the key contests, especially given the type of pitches that are likely to be served up, will be the one between the pace attacks of the two teams. South Africa have three tried and tested fast bowlers in Dale Steyn, Morne Morkel and Vernon Philander, with the uncapped Rory Kleinveldt the only other fast bowler in their squad. Australia, on the other hand, will be led by Ben Hilfenhaus and Peter Siddle, but they have the greater fast-bowling depth, with Mitchell Starc, James Pattinson and Pat Cummins all in the mix for a Test slot.

Both teams also have the best fast-bowling stats among all teams in the last 20 months. In the 2010-11 Ashes, England completely dominated the Australian bowlers in that famous 3-1 series win, but since then the Australian attack has played key roles in series wins against Sri Lanka, India and West Indies. Their performances have also helped Australia climb from fifth spot on the ICC table in January 2011, to third now.

Similarly, South Africa's attack has served them well in series wins against Sri Lanka, New Zealand, and, most crucially, in their 2-0 victory in England, when they comfortably outperformed the home team's pace attack. During this period Australia have a win-loss ratio of 4.50, and South Africa 3.00; only Pakistan come between these two.

In terms of the overall averages of fast bowlers during this period, Australia and South Africa are bunched together very closely, with only 0.09 separating the averages of the two sides. England have fallen away a bit during this period due to their poor performances against South Africa.

Team-wise stats for fast bowlers in Tests since Feb 2011
Team Tests Wickets Average Strike rate 5WI/ 10WM
South Africa 11 168 24.61 48.6 11/ 2
Australia 14 186 24.70 52.1 8/ 0
England 18 214 29.25 61.3 7/ 1
West Indies 18 174 31.02 61.5 7/ 1
Pakistan 14 88 31.78 61.0 3/ 0
New Zealand 11 122 32.08 55.9 6/ 0
India 16 134 38.92 68.1 4/ 1
Sri Lanka 17 98 50.84 86.7 2/ 0

Among the fast bowlers who have taken at least 25 Test wickets during this period, the six best averages all belong to bowlers from Australia and South Africa, which indicates how dominant their pace attack has been. Australia have also had significant contributions from Nathan Lyon, their offspinner, who has taken 42 wickets at 27.83, but much of the damage has been inflicted by pace. After an utterly insipid Ashes series, Hilfenhaus has rediscovered himself and has taken 37 wickets at 18.18, while Siddle has been the leading wicket-taker for Australia with 43 at 24.39. Ryan Harris has been outstanding too - especially in overseas Tests - with 27 wickets at 23.07, but a shoulder surgery is likely to keep him out of the South Africa series.

South Africa's attack has been bolstered significantly by the addition of Philander, who has so far had an unbelievable run in Tests - his 63 wickets have come at a rate of 33 balls per wicket, overshadowing even Steyn's 49 wickets at a strike rate of 49. Morkel's stats are relatively modest compared to those of Philander and Steyn - 37 wickets at an average of 30.78.

The best among the quick bowlers from other sides is Stuart Broad, with 73 wickets from 17 Tests at 25.30. (Click here for the full list of fast bowlers who have taken 25 or more wickets during this period.)

Best Test averages among fast bowlers since Feb 2011 (Qual: 25 wickets)
Bowler Tests Wickets Average Strike rate 5WI/ 10WM
Vernon Philander 10 63 15.96 33.1 7/ 2
Ben Hilfenhaus 7 37 18.18 43.6 2/ 0
James Pattinson 5 26 18.96 33.8 2/ 0
Ryan Harris 7 27 23.07 51.3 1/ 0
Peter Siddle 10 43 24.39 47.9 1/ 0
Dale Steyn 11 49 24.87 49.1 2/ 0

With so much onus on fast bowlers, the winner of this contest will also depend on which team bats better against pace. Here's a look at the stats of batsmen from these two teams against pace in Tests overs the last five years.

At the very outset it needs to be mentioned that the averages against pace depend on the quality of quick bowling that batsmen from these two sides have encountered in these five years. While most batsmen in the list below have similar averages against pace and against all types of bowling since 2008, there's one notable exception. Michael Hussey has had a bit of a slump during this period, with his average dropping from 80.58 before 2008 to 41.93 in 54 Tests since then, but even that average is much better than his numbers against pace during this period: his average against seam and swing bowling drops to 33.26, more than eight below his overall average during this period.

Even more worrying are Hussey's stats against South Africa's three leading quick bowlers: Steyn, Morkel and Philander have dismissed him 11 times, conceding just 106 runs, which means Hussey's average against them is a measly 9.64. Steyn and Morkel have accounted for ten of those 11 dismissals, conceding 101 runs.

For most of the others, the overall averages over these five years are fairly close to their averages against pace. Michael Clarke, Graeme Smith, Hashim Amla and AB de Villiers have higher averages against pace than their overall average since the beginning of 2008, but Jacques Kallis' average against seam and swing drops by around four runs (compared to his overall average) as does Ricky Ponting's. Hussey, Ponting and Kallis have all been terrific batsmen but are all older than 37, which suggests age might have slightly slowed their reflexes and made them more susceptible against pace. With a key series coming up, though, their captains will be hoping otherwise.

Australian and South African batsmen versus pace in Tests since Jan 2008
Batsman Runs Dismissals Average Run rate Overall ave*
Michael Clarke 2769 53 52.24 3.25 49.72
Graeme Smith 2650 45 58.88 3.77 55.70
Hashim Amla 2563 42 61.02 3.43 58.26
Ricky Ponting 2553 67 38.10 3.69 42.09
AB de Villiers 2194 33 66.48 3.53 61.12
Michael Hussey 2096 63 33.26 2.87 41.93
Jacques Kallis 1977 40 49.42 2.97 54.17
Shane Watson 1660 43 38.60 3.40 38.74
Alviro Petersen 891 17 52.41 3.26 42.39
David Warner 555 11 50.45 4.58 42.14
JP Duminy 549 14 39.21 2.72 37.57
Jacques Rudolph 426 11 38.72 3.15 37.14
* Since Jan 2008

S Rajesh is stats editor of ESPNcricinfo. Follow him on Twitter

Comments have now been closed for this article

  • No_1_again on October 29, 2012, 11:49 GMT

    There will be no green tops this summer due to the weather we have in Australia now. Last year when India came here I thought it will be a good contest but ended up one-way traffic. I hope SA won't be like Indians. We know how to control Amlas and Simiths as we have done before. Clarke's captaincy will prevail against Smith's. Go Ausiee.

  • on October 29, 2012, 8:44 GMT

    One thing is for sure. For South Africa, this series would be much tougher than the one they played against England. Australia, as is their wont, will fight all the way and can fairly be expected to put it across to the South Africans. Much will depend on SA's batting line-up, which does look superior than Australia's on current form, to set the tone.

  • dalboy12 on October 28, 2012, 21:25 GMT

    Going to be awesome series --- just hope there is no injuries, South Africa have a great starting 11, but if one of their 3 quicks gets injured they may be in trouble. Aussie is always very hard to beat at home. Main battle will be the quicks, but for South Africa is win they need their batsman to really stand up and score big as well. If Amla gets on one of his runs of form then I pick SA. My concern is that SA often seem to have trouble putting the final nail in coffin against the Aussies.

  • Percy_Fender on October 28, 2012, 12:04 GMT

    Meety thank you for your correction. I had mistakenly thought it would be a full series this time around. But there will not be any green tops I assure you. And the result will still be 2-0 in Saffers favour !

  • Bollo on October 28, 2012, 5:12 GMT

    @Meety/Percy. Yes, I was just about to have a little crack at that comment myself - beaten to the post by the Meetman!. Regardless, in the last 20 SAf vs Aus tests (since 2001) there has only been 1 draw! (excellent pitches plus good bowling?) - 14-5 to the Aussies btw. I imagine that this series will also produce results in all 3 games, 2-1 to someone my pick.

  • Meety on October 28, 2012, 0:41 GMT

    @Percy_Fender on (October 27 2012, 16:13 PM GMT) - that is the most hilarious comment I have seen in ages. Congrats, the bit about the Saffas winning 2-0 with 3 draws in a 3-test series is pure Gold! Even going onto say that we'll have placid pitches - genius!

  • on October 27, 2012, 23:01 GMT

    Well written and informative article! relevant and vital points were made but still I must say South Africa today has the edge on pace bowling. Dale Steyn will enjoy bowling on these pitches should be a cracker of a series 2-1 to either side in my view.

  • OzMongrel on October 27, 2012, 21:03 GMT

    This is a series that is up to the bowlers. Our quicks must take early wickets, because SAF are a brilliantly balanced side who will carve us up if we lose two sessions in a row. Thankfully, after watching the early season form of Ponting in Shield cricket, I think that the naysayers are in for a bit of a surprise. He is moving better than I can remember - and he is back in charge of the short ball, with the majestic pivot on the back foot right back in action. 162 no at the MCG, Shield top scorer......doubt him at your peril. Will Watto prove to himself that he is what we all know him to be - the all-rounder that Australia needs? Warner won't take a backward step, and there are finally some batsmen in Shield in form to take up the mantle if Hussey's family issues hold him back (btw, we all feel for you, Huss.) Then there's Pup, who has a great way of managing his side in the field and whose batting has been a Gibraltar. Bring it on.

  • on October 27, 2012, 19:30 GMT

    Lookin for another great contest b2wn des 2 sides....Must b great series as it has been for d last 4 5 series.....

  • Percy_Fender on October 27, 2012, 16:13 GMT

    I do'nt think Australia will have green tops because they will be destroyed if they do that. Against India they could do so because that was the best way of undermining their aging superstars of another day. The other thing is that in Smith, Amla,Kallis Duminy and De Villiers the Saffers have a better batting line up than Australia. I expect S Africa to win 2-0. There will be three draws because of the placid wickets that we are going to see in this series. In Australia, the curators know what type of wickets suit their team. They would rather settle for easy wickets.

  • No_1_again on October 29, 2012, 11:49 GMT

    There will be no green tops this summer due to the weather we have in Australia now. Last year when India came here I thought it will be a good contest but ended up one-way traffic. I hope SA won't be like Indians. We know how to control Amlas and Simiths as we have done before. Clarke's captaincy will prevail against Smith's. Go Ausiee.

  • on October 29, 2012, 8:44 GMT

    One thing is for sure. For South Africa, this series would be much tougher than the one they played against England. Australia, as is their wont, will fight all the way and can fairly be expected to put it across to the South Africans. Much will depend on SA's batting line-up, which does look superior than Australia's on current form, to set the tone.

  • dalboy12 on October 28, 2012, 21:25 GMT

    Going to be awesome series --- just hope there is no injuries, South Africa have a great starting 11, but if one of their 3 quicks gets injured they may be in trouble. Aussie is always very hard to beat at home. Main battle will be the quicks, but for South Africa is win they need their batsman to really stand up and score big as well. If Amla gets on one of his runs of form then I pick SA. My concern is that SA often seem to have trouble putting the final nail in coffin against the Aussies.

  • Percy_Fender on October 28, 2012, 12:04 GMT

    Meety thank you for your correction. I had mistakenly thought it would be a full series this time around. But there will not be any green tops I assure you. And the result will still be 2-0 in Saffers favour !

  • Bollo on October 28, 2012, 5:12 GMT

    @Meety/Percy. Yes, I was just about to have a little crack at that comment myself - beaten to the post by the Meetman!. Regardless, in the last 20 SAf vs Aus tests (since 2001) there has only been 1 draw! (excellent pitches plus good bowling?) - 14-5 to the Aussies btw. I imagine that this series will also produce results in all 3 games, 2-1 to someone my pick.

  • Meety on October 28, 2012, 0:41 GMT

    @Percy_Fender on (October 27 2012, 16:13 PM GMT) - that is the most hilarious comment I have seen in ages. Congrats, the bit about the Saffas winning 2-0 with 3 draws in a 3-test series is pure Gold! Even going onto say that we'll have placid pitches - genius!

  • on October 27, 2012, 23:01 GMT

    Well written and informative article! relevant and vital points were made but still I must say South Africa today has the edge on pace bowling. Dale Steyn will enjoy bowling on these pitches should be a cracker of a series 2-1 to either side in my view.

  • OzMongrel on October 27, 2012, 21:03 GMT

    This is a series that is up to the bowlers. Our quicks must take early wickets, because SAF are a brilliantly balanced side who will carve us up if we lose two sessions in a row. Thankfully, after watching the early season form of Ponting in Shield cricket, I think that the naysayers are in for a bit of a surprise. He is moving better than I can remember - and he is back in charge of the short ball, with the majestic pivot on the back foot right back in action. 162 no at the MCG, Shield top scorer......doubt him at your peril. Will Watto prove to himself that he is what we all know him to be - the all-rounder that Australia needs? Warner won't take a backward step, and there are finally some batsmen in Shield in form to take up the mantle if Hussey's family issues hold him back (btw, we all feel for you, Huss.) Then there's Pup, who has a great way of managing his side in the field and whose batting has been a Gibraltar. Bring it on.

  • on October 27, 2012, 19:30 GMT

    Lookin for another great contest b2wn des 2 sides....Must b great series as it has been for d last 4 5 series.....

  • Percy_Fender on October 27, 2012, 16:13 GMT

    I do'nt think Australia will have green tops because they will be destroyed if they do that. Against India they could do so because that was the best way of undermining their aging superstars of another day. The other thing is that in Smith, Amla,Kallis Duminy and De Villiers the Saffers have a better batting line up than Australia. I expect S Africa to win 2-0. There will be three draws because of the placid wickets that we are going to see in this series. In Australia, the curators know what type of wickets suit their team. They would rather settle for easy wickets.

  • Mahesh4811 on October 27, 2012, 15:31 GMT

    I just love to read this column :)

  • on October 27, 2012, 14:15 GMT

    @rahulcricket Point remains.... England is a wholly bowler (read: seamer) friendly country.... Plus England dropped way too many catches, allowing SA to stroll through the series....

  • Bollo on October 27, 2012, 10:39 GMT

    @rahulcricket007. Instead of trying to find a circuitous route to downplay Australia`s chances, or their recent performances in general, why not simply refer to the recent (Nov 2011) series between the two sides which finished 1-1 after two very competitive matches.

    Had to think carefully before I realised the `whitewash` you were referring to was a meaningless one-day series played by a very different group of players to the test team. Finally, Sri Lanka weak at home? - Australia`s recent victory is their first loss in 11 home series, in which time they`ve beaten many teams, India, England, Pakistan and South Africa included. And GET RID OF THE CAPS MATE...

  • rahulcricket007 on October 27, 2012, 8:24 GMT

    @AHMED USMAN KHAN . WELL SA RECENTLY PLAYED IN ENGLAND & BEAT THEM BY 2-0 . THE SAME ENGLAND TEAM BEAT AUSTRLIA BY 3-1 IN ASHES , & THEN WHITEWASH THEM BY 4-0 RECENTLY . ALSO THE ARTICLES SAYS THAT AUSTRALIAN HAS WON SERIES AGAINST WI , SL & INDIA . WE ALL KNOW ALL THESE SIDES ARE NOW VERY WEAK IN TESTS ( INDIA PARTICLUARLY AT OVERSEAS) . SO I M NOT SUPRISED BY SEEING THAT AUSTRALIAN BOWLERS AVERAGE HAS BECOME GOOD .

  • on October 27, 2012, 6:50 GMT

    Ok. SA have good bowlers. But in the period stated above, how many matches have they played in batsman friendly conditions? Or even outside home? Their batting has been carrying them all along, combined with shaky batting by the opposition... No need to get so worked up....

  • on October 27, 2012, 1:55 GMT

    SA are going to win this series. I think aussie batting especially the middle order is a suspect, also the likes of steyn and morkel are a class apart to the likes of siddle and hifenhaus. In batting amla is in the form of his, expect him to score a lot of runs.

  • Beertjie on October 26, 2012, 22:33 GMT

    It's not the pace bowlers that will be decisive but rather the top 6 batters, especially the first 3. Here SA have a clear edge, but Oz now appear to be a different outfit playing at home, especially under Pup. Can't wait for this battle!

  • Aussasinator on October 26, 2012, 17:50 GMT

    SA batsmen are far more comfortable against bouncing & moving pace than the Aussies. Amla, Kallis, De Villiers etc handle it with ease unlike Ponting, Clarke, Watson and as I see, even Warner. If the SAFs sustain a mix of bounce and swing, the Aussie bunch will be again exposed like the Poms did so clinically and ruthlessly twice over. It's just that the Proteas shouldnt lose their aggression for no apparent reason, as is their wont. O else, they are the much better team, since the Aussie batting line up is much the same old pace-vulnerable bunch. Nothing has changed.

  • on October 26, 2012, 13:20 GMT

    SA will win that easily. A much better batting line-up, and a much more dangerous and consistent seam attack.

  • ejsiddiqui on October 26, 2012, 11:42 GMT

    @Kiefpant Sorry mate you are wrong. SA did beat England in England so as Pakistan beat England in UAE but SA could not beat Pakistan in UAE. That series was a draw.

  • Kiefpant on October 26, 2012, 10:16 GMT

    Flattered to deceive?

    SA won the series convincingly in England. The last time Aus played England, back in 2010, they were destroyed at home. In the meantime they've played series against NZ, India and SL at home and WI and SA away. Well, at least one of those was challenging. SA, on the other hand, has beaten England in England and Pakistan in UAE, neither of which can be scoffed at.

    At the end of the day, the Aus bowling attack, while very promising and full of depth, is untested against a genuine top tier team in an extended series. The last time was Ashes 2010 and look how that turned out.

    As for batting, only three Aus batsmen have maintained an average of over 40.00 during the past twelve months. SA have six. Sure, stats aren't everything, but you can't ignore the story they tell.

  • on October 26, 2012, 8:45 GMT

    ...and combined overall average of 4 top aussie batters since 2008 is a meagre 43.97 (not one over 50 individually). Smith, Amla, ABdV & Kallis combine for 57.31 (all over 50).

    With pace attacks all the talk I cant help but think that the top 6 will be where its decided. The aus bowling attack and its depth has been talked up so much it will be interesting to see them perform under real pressure. They've hardly had to bowl more than 4 session to get 10 wickets.

  • Nuxxy on October 26, 2012, 8:38 GMT

    Like I told my friends before the SA in England series, the difference will be Hashim.

  • Aristotle01 on October 26, 2012, 8:02 GMT

    Hussey's stats against quality pace have been surprisingly poor in tests....broad and anderson troubled him last ashes in addtion to steyn and morkel even journeymen like Ishant sharma have troubled him at times--- and sharma is not quality at all...... thats one of the reasons why hussey will be considered as a very fine player rather than a great or even a nearly great one..... unleash quality pace against him early and he often gets before 10! SHOCKED TO SEE HE HAS 12 DUCKS :O:O Once set he is hard to dismiss though! That is what makes him a tough cookie. Gutsy, determined and once set can be very classy.

  • on October 26, 2012, 7:26 GMT

    SA flattered to deceive in England. Their victories there were built on the shaky platform of England giving Amla several chances in each of his big innings. Dropped catches lose matches. Without Amla's contribution there wasn't much between these sides. My prediction is that a puffed up, over-rated SA side is going to be badly deflated by Australia's battery of young fast bowlers. Let's hope they are fit and remain so!

  • edgie on October 26, 2012, 6:21 GMT

    going to be a good series. I see a 2-1 victory to the Proteas...

  • on October 26, 2012, 6:14 GMT

    sa will easily win 2-0 and keep the #1 spot!!!

  • Meety on October 26, 2012, 5:05 GMT

    A lot will depend on whether AB deVilliers is keeping wickets or not. I think it would be mad to risk reducing the impact of an obviously very good batsmen for the sake of stacking the batting line up. It's not ike the Saffa tail are chock-full of bunnies.

  • on October 26, 2012, 4:51 GMT

    So in conclusion: SA top 4 averages 58.95 against pace since 2008 and AUS top 4 averages 43.51......... Advantage SA.

  • No featured comments at the moment.

  • on October 26, 2012, 4:51 GMT

    So in conclusion: SA top 4 averages 58.95 against pace since 2008 and AUS top 4 averages 43.51......... Advantage SA.

  • Meety on October 26, 2012, 5:05 GMT

    A lot will depend on whether AB deVilliers is keeping wickets or not. I think it would be mad to risk reducing the impact of an obviously very good batsmen for the sake of stacking the batting line up. It's not ike the Saffa tail are chock-full of bunnies.

  • on October 26, 2012, 6:14 GMT

    sa will easily win 2-0 and keep the #1 spot!!!

  • edgie on October 26, 2012, 6:21 GMT

    going to be a good series. I see a 2-1 victory to the Proteas...

  • on October 26, 2012, 7:26 GMT

    SA flattered to deceive in England. Their victories there were built on the shaky platform of England giving Amla several chances in each of his big innings. Dropped catches lose matches. Without Amla's contribution there wasn't much between these sides. My prediction is that a puffed up, over-rated SA side is going to be badly deflated by Australia's battery of young fast bowlers. Let's hope they are fit and remain so!

  • Aristotle01 on October 26, 2012, 8:02 GMT

    Hussey's stats against quality pace have been surprisingly poor in tests....broad and anderson troubled him last ashes in addtion to steyn and morkel even journeymen like Ishant sharma have troubled him at times--- and sharma is not quality at all...... thats one of the reasons why hussey will be considered as a very fine player rather than a great or even a nearly great one..... unleash quality pace against him early and he often gets before 10! SHOCKED TO SEE HE HAS 12 DUCKS :O:O Once set he is hard to dismiss though! That is what makes him a tough cookie. Gutsy, determined and once set can be very classy.

  • Nuxxy on October 26, 2012, 8:38 GMT

    Like I told my friends before the SA in England series, the difference will be Hashim.

  • on October 26, 2012, 8:45 GMT

    ...and combined overall average of 4 top aussie batters since 2008 is a meagre 43.97 (not one over 50 individually). Smith, Amla, ABdV & Kallis combine for 57.31 (all over 50).

    With pace attacks all the talk I cant help but think that the top 6 will be where its decided. The aus bowling attack and its depth has been talked up so much it will be interesting to see them perform under real pressure. They've hardly had to bowl more than 4 session to get 10 wickets.

  • Kiefpant on October 26, 2012, 10:16 GMT

    Flattered to deceive?

    SA won the series convincingly in England. The last time Aus played England, back in 2010, they were destroyed at home. In the meantime they've played series against NZ, India and SL at home and WI and SA away. Well, at least one of those was challenging. SA, on the other hand, has beaten England in England and Pakistan in UAE, neither of which can be scoffed at.

    At the end of the day, the Aus bowling attack, while very promising and full of depth, is untested against a genuine top tier team in an extended series. The last time was Ashes 2010 and look how that turned out.

    As for batting, only three Aus batsmen have maintained an average of over 40.00 during the past twelve months. SA have six. Sure, stats aren't everything, but you can't ignore the story they tell.

  • ejsiddiqui on October 26, 2012, 11:42 GMT

    @Kiefpant Sorry mate you are wrong. SA did beat England in England so as Pakistan beat England in UAE but SA could not beat Pakistan in UAE. That series was a draw.