Tactics Board: How Pakistan can beat England
The stats say the hosts are overwhelming favourites, so is there anything Pakistan can do?
ESPNcricinfo staff
13-Jun-2017
ESPNcricinfo Ltd
If England bat first…
Pakistan must be prepared for a big chase
Pakistan have a serious problem if England bat first. England's average first-innings score since the 2015 World Cup is 306. They have scored 300 or more 17 times in 24 attempts. How many times have Pakistan chased 300+ since the 2015 World Cup? Just once, though that was against England in Cardiff last year, when they went past their target of 303. Apart from that, though, Pakistan have chased 250+ just three other times - twice against Sri Lanka and once against Zimbabwe - and have failed in 250+ chases seven times.
Pakistan have a serious problem if England bat first. England's average first-innings score since the 2015 World Cup is 306. They have scored 300 or more 17 times in 24 attempts. How many times have Pakistan chased 300+ since the 2015 World Cup? Just once, though that was against England in Cardiff last year, when they went past their target of 303. Apart from that, though, Pakistan have chased 250+ just three other times - twice against Sri Lanka and once against Zimbabwe - and have failed in 250+ chases seven times.
Can Pakistan restrict England?
Since the 2015 World Cup, Pakistan have conceded, on average, 285 runs while bowling first. In five matches against England, that average goes up to 320. So, on the fact of it, it will be hard. But in this Champions Trophy, they have twice kept sides down to under 250. They've done it by taking wickets in the middle overs (11-40), 13 in all, the second-most, after India.
Since the 2015 World Cup, Pakistan have conceded, on average, 285 runs while bowling first. In five matches against England, that average goes up to 320. So, on the fact of it, it will be hard. But in this Champions Trophy, they have twice kept sides down to under 250. They've done it by taking wickets in the middle overs (11-40), 13 in all, the second-most, after India.
Pakistan need to go hard early to chase 300+
If the numbers prove correct and Pakistan need to chase around 300 or more, they will have to change the way they bat at the start. Azhar Ali's strike-rate of 79.02 since the 2015 World Cup is the lowest among all openers who have scored 1000+ runs in that period. Pakistan may need to consider dropping him down the order or all together.
If the numbers prove correct and Pakistan need to chase around 300 or more, they will have to change the way they bat at the start. Azhar Ali's strike-rate of 79.02 since the 2015 World Cup is the lowest among all openers who have scored 1000+ runs in that period. Pakistan may need to consider dropping him down the order or all together.
If England bowl first…
Pakistan must score at least 300
Since the 2015 World Cup, England have faced 13 targets of less than 300 and they have successfully chased 11 of them. So Pakistan, despite their strong bowling, must try to score 300+ runs. Even against targets between 300 and 350, England have a 4-2 record. But Pakistan have gone past 350 only six times in their history, so they are better off looking to score 300-330.
Since the 2015 World Cup, England have faced 13 targets of less than 300 and they have successfully chased 11 of them. So Pakistan, despite their strong bowling, must try to score 300+ runs. Even against targets between 300 and 350, England have a 4-2 record. But Pakistan have gone past 350 only six times in their history, so they are better off looking to score 300-330.
They need runs against the new ball
Pakistan's average first-innings score since the 2015 World Cup is 284, so they just need to do a bit better than average to get a competitive total. They can get those extra runs in the first 10 overs. England have taken just two wickets in the first 10 overs during this Champions Trophy. Their bowlers haven't found much assistance early, so Pakistan, in particular Fakhar Zaman, need to attack from the start.
Pakistan's average first-innings score since the 2015 World Cup is 284, so they just need to do a bit better than average to get a competitive total. They can get those extra runs in the first 10 overs. England have taken just two wickets in the first 10 overs during this Champions Trophy. Their bowlers haven't found much assistance early, so Pakistan, in particular Fakhar Zaman, need to attack from the start.
Pace the key against England
While Pakistan may be tempted to exploit England's historical problems playing spin, it is their fast bowlers who have led to their success in this tournament. Hasan Ali, Junaid Khan and Mohammad Amir have together taken 14 of Pakistan's 20 wickets so far, and each of them has an economy-rate of less than five in the tournament.
While Pakistan may be tempted to exploit England's historical problems playing spin, it is their fast bowlers who have led to their success in this tournament. Hasan Ali, Junaid Khan and Mohammad Amir have together taken 14 of Pakistan's 20 wickets so far, and each of them has an economy-rate of less than five in the tournament.
Also, England have actually fared better against spin than pace since the 2015 World Cup. They have lost 211 wickets to seamers, averaged 36.88 runs per wicket and scored at 6.26 runs per over against them. Against spinners, England have lost 78 wickets, averaged 53.66 and scored at 6.20.