Australia in unfamiliar territory in T20I series decider against South Africa

Australia venture into the unknown in more ways than one on Saturday. While South Africa played in a T20I series decider just three weeks ago in Harare, Australia have not played in a live T20I series decider since September 2022. They were set to do so in the final match of a three-game series in England last year but rain prevented a ball being bowled with the series locked at 1-1. Other than that, Australia have clean swept the three other series they have played since the 2024 World Cup, where they didn't make the semi-finals. Every series they played between the 2022 World Cup, where they also did not make the semi-finals, and 2024 was also decided before the final game.

It will be a useful pressure test for both sides as they continue to gear up towards the 2026 T20 World Cup. They will also face unknown conditions at Cazaly's Stadium in Cairns in far north Queensland. Just as Darwin had never hosted a T20I before this series, Cairns will host its first on Saturday night. It has hosted far more recent international cricket, though, with Australia playing three ODIs there in 2022, which will be relevant for the start of the ODI series on Tuesday. There has been a BBL game there, in 2022, but it was played at a different time of year. However, Australia left-arm spinner Matthew Kuhnemann is the only member of either team to have played in that game. He took 3 for 32 for Brisbane Heat while fellow left-arm orthodox spinner Akeal Hosein took 3 for 15 from four overs for Melbourne Renegades, having opened the bowling with Mujeeb Ur Rahman as Renegades successfully defended 166. Adam Zampa also took 5 for 35 in one of the 2022 ODIs against New Zealand.

That background, albeit from a one-off game, may see both sides consider selecting left-arm spinners for the decider. Kuhnemann has not played since debuting in the second T20I in Jamaica last month, where Australia bowled 11 overs of spin to restrict West Indies. He did play a major part in the second game in Darwin when, as a substitute fielder, he dropped Dewald Brevis at long-on on 56 before Brevis went on to pummel a match-winning 125 not out.

South Africa left out their two left-arm orthodox spinners in George Linde and Senuran Muthusamy in game two in Darwin and only bowled four overs of spin via legspinner Nqabayomzi Peter and skipper Aiden Markram.

Whether they wish to change a winning formula remains to be seen, especially given the success of South Africa's pacers against Australia's top-order so far in the series. Meanwhile, Australia will be forced to make at least one change with Mitchell Owen ruled out of the series after suffering concussion. Josh Inglis (flu) and Nathan Ellis (rested) should be right to return after missing game two. Matt Short was a chance to return for this match but has been ruled out of the game and the ODI series to follow because of a side strain. Aaron Hardie is there as cover and looks set to return to the XI after playing twice in the recent Caribbean series before losing his place in the squad.

Australia LWWWW(last five completed T20Is, most recent first)
South Africa WLLWL

Glenn Maxwell is a vital player in Australia's T20I line-up ahead of the World Cup next year because of his versatility and his all-round skills. His bowling is crucial for the balance of the side while he remains one of the best fielders in the team and capable of deciding matches with stunning outfield catches like the one he produced in game one of this series. He has many, many credits in the bank with the bat too. Maxwell has been prone to some lean patches across his career, but his batting has been skittish in recent times. Even with his flair and his 360-degree skills, Maxwell at his best takes control of the middle-to-late overs and stacks the risk-reward options in his favour more often than not.

That hasn't been the case recently, though. He has one 50-plus score in his last 23 T20s across all leagues dating back to the start of the IPL, and only five scores of 21 or more with three of those coming in MLC, and 11 of the 23 have been single-figure scores. His only real contribution with the bat in the last seven T20Is came in Basseterre with 47 off 18 opening the batting, although he was 20 off 7 and flying in the previous game before being run out through no fault of his own. He has been moved around the order, which can be unsettling, and Australia would be thrilled to have won six of seven without major batting contributions from him. But equally, they would love to see Maxwell fire in a big game again sooner rather than later.

Like Maxwell, there is no question on Aiden Markram's ability in T20 cricket but his output has been puzzling. He has not scored a T20I half-century in his last 30 innings dating back to the 2022 T20 World Cup. Since the start of 2024, he has reached 20 just four times in 20 innings, with a highest score of 46 against USA, averaging just 15.50 at a strike rate of just 122.90.

He has been bounced through every position in the top five and has returned to open in this series after a decent IPL opening the batting for Lucknow Super Giant, where he made five half-centuries in 13 innings. But he struck at 15 runs per 100 balls slower than his opening partner Mitchell Marsh in the IPL and a rate of 148.82 in Indian conditions would be considered sluggish and potentially not a method for success in a World Cup in India, as evidenced by the way Australia's top-order are trying to play. There's no doubt he has the class and the ability to adjust. He loves playing against Australia in all-formats and a good score would settle any questions that might surround the captain's position in South Africa's top-order.

Inglis is set to return in place of Alex Carey after missing the last match with the flu, while Ellis should return after being rested. Inglis will slot back in at No. 3 with the rest of the order likely to slide. However, with Owen ruled out and Hardie potentially replacing him at No. 7 does open the door for Australia to pick two spinners given Hardie can open the bowling. If Kuhnemann were to partner Zampa, and Ellis also returned, then two of Josh Hazlewood, Sean Abbott or Ben Dwarshuis could miss out. Dwarshuis would be desperately unlucky to miss out owing to Hazlewood's seniority given his superb form. There is a possibility, though, that Australia could rest their prized all-format asset in Hazlewood with three ODIs coming in six days starting on Tuesday.

Australia (possible): 1 Mitchell Marsh (capt), 2 Travis Head, 3 Josh Inglis (wk), 4 Cameron Green, 5 Tim David, 6 Glenn Maxwell, 7 Aaron Hardie, 8 Ben Dwarshuis, 9 Nathan Ellis, 10 Adam Zampa, 11 Josh Hazlewood/Matt Kuhnemann

Do South Africa stick with a winning combination or add an extra spinning allrounder back into the mix? That will be the question Shukri Conrad and his team will debate heading into the unknown conditions in Cairns. Lhuan-dre Pretorius' two scores of 14 and 10 provide another avenue if they wish to promote Rassie van der Dussen back to No. 3 or even elevate the in-form Brevis higher in order to return Linde at No. 6. Muthusamy could also replace Peter if the conditions look more favourable for a left-arm fingerspinner rather than a legspinner. Nandre Burger could also be considered if either Lungi Ngidi or Corbin Bosch need a rest.

South Africa (possible): 1 Aiden Markram (capt), 2 Ryan Rickelton (wk), 3 Lhuan-dre Pretorius, 4 Dewald Brevis, 5 Tristan Stubbs, 6 Rassie van der Dussen, 7 Corbin Bosch/George Linde, 8 Kagiso Rabada, 9 Nqabayomzi Peter/Senuran Muthusamy, 10 Kwena Maphaka, 11 Lungi Ngidi/Nandre Burger

Like in Darwin, the conditions in Carins are unknown although the 2022 BBL game does provide something to work off compared to the blind test at Marrara Oval. Spin could be a factor and batting might not be that easy overall. Even the ODIs in 2022 between Australia and New Zealand were relatively low-scoring with only one total of more than 250 scored in the three games. The weather looks perfect with conditions set to be very mild and pleasant in the evening. The late-evening dew could be a concern as there will be some humidity.

"I sort of pride myself on being able to fill any hole possible. So whether that's up the order or middle-order batting, and then being able to bowl any overs from one to 20 in the T20 format."
Aaron Hardie is ready to do whatever the team needs him to.

"We've never been to Darwin or to this place. We've enjoyed our time. Obviously, a different feel to what we're used to in Australia. South Africans sort of like that. It's a bit more open, a bit more relaxed, a bit more chilled. People have been great and all the sideshows have been really good as well."
Aiden Markram is enjoying his first visit to Cairns.