Australia set to face another trial by spin but Subrayen won't play

Australia are the reigning ODI World Champions but they have not been playing like it since their 2023 triumph in India. There are mitigating circumstances, having not fielded a full strength team in any game since while beginning a transition towards 2027 following some key retirements. But they have lost six of their last seven completed ODIs including being thumped in game one in Cairns with an experienced top six and an attack featuring two World Cup winning bowlers.

Meanwhile, South Africa looked polished with a transitional team of their own. The absences of David Miller and the retired Heinrich Klaasen were not felt in the slightest with the bat as they posted an excellent score on a sluggish surface with even contributions from the top-four and very little from the powerful duo of Tristan Stubbs and Dewald Brevis on ODI debut.

Keshav Maharaj's stunning bowling display did mask a poor new-ball spell from Lungi Ngidi and Nandre Burger. But it was still an excellent performance overall after losing Kagiso Rabada from the series on the eve of the match. The win was soured by the news that debutant offspinner Prenelan Subrayen had been reported, yet again, for a suspect bowling action. Coach Shukri Conrad confirmed that Subrayen would not play in the final two matches despite being available to play, before having his action independently assessed in Brisbane at the end of this ODI series.

But the win in Cairns has South Africa one win away from claiming a fifth straight bilateral ODI series against Australia dating back over a decade.

Conditions in Mackay, further south of Cairns, will be an unknown as the only men's ODI played there was in 1992 and only two balls were bowled. The last List A game played there in 2023 was very high scoring. But there was a 50-over game between Australia A and New Zealand A in Mackay in that same season where the bowlers dominated. South Africa A played four 50-over matches in Mackay in a Quadrangular A-team one-day series in 2016 but none of South Africa's current team played in it.

Australia will be desperate for their batting to click. They have been bowled out for under 200 in six of their last 10 completed ODIs. They have been bowled out for under 200 in their last three ODIs at home, which has never happened in Australia's history. The order looks slightly different, and there is no Steve Smith or Glenn Maxwell, but the quality of players in the top six should be capable of functioning better than they have been.

South Africa's only batting question is how to best utilise Brevis after questions arose as to whether he entered too late in Cairns. With the ball, they will know that Maharaj is the trump card, but would want to have more impact with the new ball to avoid him bowling to a set left-hander in Travis Head, something he did not have to do in game one.

Australia LLWLL (last five completed ODIs, most recent first)
South Africa WLWWL

Marnus Labuschagnewas Australia's player to watch in Cairns and nothing changes heading into Mackay. Much of the interest in him surrounds his road to the Ashes and whether he can reclaim his Test place, but his ODI form and his role within the new look batting line-up has some significant question marks over it as well. Since his match-winning unbeaten 58 in the 2023 World Cup final and an unbeaten 77 in a winning chase against England in 2024 just two innings later, he has really struggled. He's averaging just 15.22 at a strike-rate of 76.53 in his last nine ODI innings without a half-century. Six of those were batting at No.5 and two were batting at No.4 in the Champions Trophy, where he did make a valuable 47 off 45 in the win over England. He has been elevated to No.3 for this series with a view to positioning him potentially as the long-term Smith replacement with Mitchell Marsh and Head becoming the opening combination. But he needs some runs to bed that position down.

Klaasen's retirement from international cricket leaves a giant hole in South Africa's middle-order. Tristan Stubbs has been given first option at making Klaasen's No.5 role his own but with Brevis breathing down his neck and Miller still available to return at some point, Stubbs will need to perform sooner rather than later. He is still early in his career having only played 10 ODIs to-date, but outside of 79 and 112 not out against Ireland, his returns have been very lean, with six single-figure scores including 1, 0, and 0 in his last three ODIs. Middle-order batting is fickle in ODI cricket and sample sizes are important when measuring output given entry points can vary greatly, with Cairns being a prime example of him needing to go from ball one with limited time remaining in the innings. But his T20I returns in a similar role have only been solid in terms of runs made and sluggish in terms of scoring rate by comparison to Brevis or Klaasen. His fielding is also normally a strength, but he has had a torrid tour of Australia with a number of dropped catches including one at cover in Cairns. If he can find form in the final two games it gives South Africa a deep and powerful batting unit heading towards a home World Cup.

There were suggestions that Matt Kuhnemann should have played in Cairns and should also come into the mix for Mackay but it is more likely that Aaron Hardie's position at No.7 will come under scrutiny with an option to play a spinning allrounder instead in Cooper Connolly, who also bowls left-arm orthodox, as Australia scramble to fill the hole left by the retired Maxwell and the injured duo of Matt Short and Mitchell Owen. Josh Hazlewood's loads will continue to be monitored with the Ashes in mind. Australia have Xavier Bartlett in the squad if Hazlewood needs to rest from one of the last two ODIs which will be played with only a day's break in between.

Australia (possible): 1 Travis Head, 2 Mitchell Marsh (capt), 3 Cameron Green, 4 Marnus Labuschagne, 5 Josh Inglis (wk), 6 Alex Carey, 7 Aaron Hardie/Cooper Connolly, 8 Ben Dwarshuis, 9 Nathan Ellis, 10 Adam Zampa, 11 Josh Hazlewood

Subrayen being rested from the final two ODIs opens the door for Senuran Muthusamy to play if they wish to continue to attack Australia's right-hand heavy top five with left-arm orthodox spin. Corbin Bosch and Kwena Maphaka are also available if Lungi Ngidi needs a rest in one of the final two games after playing every match of the tour so far.

South Africa (possible): 1 Aiden Markram, 2 Ryan Rickelton (wk), 3 Temba Bavuma (capt), 4 Matthew Breetzke, 6 Tristan Stubbs, 6 Dewald Brevis, 7 Wiaan Mulder, 8 Senuran Muthusamy, 9 Keshav Maharaj, 10 Nandre Burger, 11 Lungi Ngidi

Conditions at Great Barrier Reef Arena will be unknown for both sides. In the three women's ODIs played there in 2021 the chasing side won all three times. In the two List A games in 2023 the chasers were 1-1 but Victoria needed every bit of their first innings 349 to hold a fast finishing Queensland. Cameron Green said the pitch "looks like a beauty" a day out from the game on Thursday. It will be a pleasant temperature again but there is set to be a strong breeze from the south-east, with the ground very close to the ocean, which will undoubtedly influence bowling tactics and scoring options as it did in Cairns.

"Just had a quick walk past [the pitch]. It looks like a beauty. We've heard some really good things about it. A couple of Queenslanders I think have played some games up here for Queensland. Heard it's a great wicket. So looking forward to tomorrow."
Cameron Green

"We just felt, together with 'Subs' (Prenelan Subrayen) that less noise, get him away and out of the public eye [and] just make sure that he's OK. "That's why his name's not going to be on the team sheet tomorrow."
Shukri Conrad