Huge odds of exact no-balls - expert

The likelihood of three no-balls occurring at pre-determined times in a Test match had a "one in a 1.5 million chance" of happening, a court was told on Monday during the alleged spot-fixing trial of two Pakistan cricketers.

Sky Sports statistician Benedict Bermange, appearing as a prosecution witness late in the afternoon, made the claim at Southwark Crown Court where former Pakistan captain Salman Butt and fast bowler Mohammad Asif are defending themselves against allegations of conspiring to bowl pre-planned no-balls in the Lord's Test last year. Both players deny the charges.

The jury has already heard the background of how two no-balls from Mohammad Amir and one from Mohammad Asif were bowled at exactly the same time in the match that had been predicted on a secretly-filmed tape by agent Mazhar Majeed, who was exposed in a sting operation by an undercover News of the World journalist.

"According to my calculations, there is a one in a million chance (of three no-balls being bowled at pre-determined times)," Bermange said, "but for these two bowlers that becomes a one in a 1.5 million chance," presumably because of their expertise and usual accuracy at not overstepping.

In Bermange's statement he revealed that Pakistan bowl 23 percent more no-balls than any other country, but also said that Asif's 58 career no-balls - or just under two per Test - was low in comparison to his contemporaries. That number included 24 in one match against South Africa.

Asif's legal representative Alexander Milne questioned Bermange on his results and agreed the rate for bowling pre-determined no-balls without corrupt intervention would be "far-fetched" but did also gain a valuable concession from Bermange as to his client.

When Milne pointed to a printed graphic illustrating Asif's front foot for his no-ball and suggested to Bermange it was a no-ball by just a fraction, the Sky Sports statistician replied: "Yes".

Although Bermange was revealed to have a science degree at Durham University, he did admit to having a maths 'A' level and had taken a statistics course. He also stated that by some quirk (maybe to do with the slope), Lord's has a 20 percent higher no-ball rate than any other ground around the world.

But that was of little consolation for the teenage Amir who, according to Bermange, overstepped by some distance.

"I have attended 50 Test matches within my current position and these two (bowled by Amir) were the largest no-balls in terms of the front foot being over the crease that I have seen."

News of the World reporter Mazhar Mahmood will again appear in the witness stand on Tuesday and there will soon be an appearance from statistician David Kendix, who devised the world rankings for the ICC. The case continues.