Anantha Narayanan

Malcolm Marshall: 32 wickets in five Tests a an average of 17.18 © Getty Images

During early 1990s we had developed a series of complex and unique Test and ODI simulation systems. We had simulated for Sportstar a ODI World Cup. We had also conducted an inter-school tournament between the top schools letting the children captain various teams. Also we had done some innovative pre-match simulation of the matches during the 1999 World Cup.

During 2002, I undertook a very different and unusual exercise with Times of London, in conjunction with Wisden On-line. This was to simulate a series of 5 Tests between an all-time England XI and all-time World XI. For various logical reasons we restricted ourselves to the post-war players. These matches were to be played at Lord's, Bridgetown, Cape Town, SCG and Calcutta. The two teams were selected by Christopher Martin-Jenkins with inputs from us. The actual simulation was done in Bangalore over a few days.

During early 1990s we had developed a series of complex and unique Test and ODI simulation systems. We had simulated for Sportstar an ODI World Cup. We had also conducted an inter-school tournament between the top schools, letting the children captain various teams. Also we had done some innovative pre-match simulation of the matches during the 1999 World Cup.

During 2002, I undertook a very different and unusual exercise with Times of London, in conjunction with Wisden Online. This was to simulate a series of 5 Tests between an all-time England XI and all-time World XI. For various logical reasons we restricted ourselves to the post-war players. These matches were to be played at Lord's, SCG, Bridgetown, Cape Town and Calcutta. The two teams were selected by Christopher Martin-Jenkins with inputs from us. The actual simulation was done in Bangalore over a few days.

The results were published in London Times, with comments by Steven Lynch, between 26 July 2002 and 3 August 2002. The published scorecards will be scanned and shown in the next article.

Since most readers might not have seen these articles, I felt I ought to do an article on this unique exercise. In the first part I will talk about the simulation methodology and the teams which were selected. In the second part I will cover the actual "Test" match scores and the original match reports as sent by us to London Times. I am sure the readers would find these worthwhile to peruse.

SIMULATION METHODOLOGY:

1. Player Data:

The actual career data of the player concerned is used. The following figures are part of the Player data. Readers should remember that I have lot more data available now than during 2002.

- No of Tests
- Career years span
- Type of batsman (Opening/EMO/LMO/Tail)
- Runs scored
- Batting average
- Highest score
- No of 100s & overall pattern of 100s
- Catches/Stumpings
- Type of bowler (Fast/FM/M/SLA/OB/LBG/LAC)
- No of balls bowled
- Runs conceded
- Wickets taken
- Bowling average
- Bowling RPO
- Bowling strike rate.

- Innings Size index: The ability of the player to play long innings. Bradman and Zaheer (and now Lara/Sehwag) converted most of their 100s into big scores. Not Lamb, Mark Waugh or M.Amarnath.
- Expected balls per innings: The average number of balls expected to be faced by the player. Highest is Bradman with 175 balls.
- Expected runs per ball: Ranges from .75 for Jessop/Gilchrist to .2 for strokeless wonders. Product of above two generally works out to the Career average.
- Strokeplay index: How far can the batsman be moved into attacking situations. Ranges from 6 for Bradman/Jessop to 1 for C'Shekhar/Malcolm.
- Defensive index: How far can the batsman be moved into match saving situations. Ranges from 5 for Gavaskar/Atherton to 1 for C'Shekhar/Malcolm.
- Bad wicket technique: High for Hobbs/Gavaskar and low for Srikkanth/Smith.
- Adjustment factor: Provide for Trumper et al scoring runs on uncovered wickets.
- Fielding index: Gives an indication of the quality of players' ground fielding. Highest index is 5 for Constantine/Bland/Randall and Rhodes.
- Bowling type: Type of bowler – Attacking, Normal or Defensive.
- Variation index: Ability to vary the deliveries. Hadlee/Grimmett/Warne high.
- Effectivity index: Ability to use atmospheric conditions for Fast/Medium bowlers and ability to flight for spinners. Prasanna/Murali high and Emburey low.
- Fielding: Team's Run-saving based on Fielding Index. Catching ability on average catches per match (Hammond/Solkar/Mark Waugh fairly high).

Around the world, all test playing grounds including Sharjah have been included. Each ground has 6 index values.

- The support to Fast Bowlers (On a scale of 1 to 5)
- The support to Medium Pace Bowlers (On a scale of 1 to 5)
- The support to Spin Bowlers (On a scale of 1 to 5)
- A Run-Index for the ground (On a scale of 5 to 25). These have been built based on an article which appeared in Sportstar during the early 90s and have been updated since.
- Rain Index : Ranges from 5 for Manchester (almost every match will be affected by rain) to Sydney (almost always sunny).
- Close of play Index : Ranges from 4 for UK Grounds (Good chance of 2 Hours after Close of Play) to 1 for Calcutta (virtually no chance of extension of play). This factor has an impact on the number of overs bowled during the day.

3. Current Form :

This is randomised by the Computer for each player. The form index ranges from 4 (In Great form) to 1 (In poor form). Each block of 50 balls safely negotiated by the player will improve his form. The captain has to take into account the form and shepherd his players through poor form phases.

4. Rain

Rain is an integral part of the game, especially if a match is played at Manchester, Galle or Port of Spain. The concept of rain is built into the game depending on the ground rain index. Complex calculations determine the occurrence and duration of rain. It is also possible that matches take place without any occurrence of rain.

5. Simulation :

The match is, in reality, between two external captains who have at their disposal the players as resources. They are responsible for all actions including team selection, batting orders, strategies and fine tuning of plays.

The simulation is a complex process. Each ball is a mini-match and the complete match consists of x such mini-matches. For each ball, a total of no less than 30 randomising decisions are taken to decide on the outcome of ball. Some of the factors depend on the quality of the players involved, some on the match situation and some on the decisions taken by the two non-playing captains. These are briefly described below.

Note: Only Sobers has bowled at the top level with equal effectiveness as a seam bowler and a spinner. So only for Sobers will the captain be asked at the beginning of each over as to what type of bowling he wants Sobers to do.

The Captain, whose role is a combination of on-field captain and off-field coach, has to use his resources very effectively. He should make his bowling changes with care, give his bowlers required rest, plan his strategies sharply, decide on how to optimise the resources at his disposal, especially outstanding resources such as Bradman et al.

6. Teams selected:

The two teams which were selected are given below. Since each team had two outstanding fast bowlers, two great spinners and a top all-rounder, it was decided that the same team would play in all 5 locations.

All-time Post-war England XI

Hutton
Gooch
Dexter
May
Cowdrey
Botham
Knott (wk)
Laker
Underwood
Trueman
Statham
12th man: Randall

Gavaskar
Richards B A
Richards I V A
Lara
Tendulkar
Sobers
Gilchrist (wk)
Warne
Marshall
Muralitharan
Lillee
12th man: Rhodes

As far as the England team is concerned, maybe the same holds good. Possibly Pietersen for Cowdrey.

In addition to the five Test series, a one-off "Test" was played between the team selected by a lucky reader (P.J.Mickleburgh) and an eleven selected by Christopher Martin-Jenkins.

The second part will follow within a few days. This will contain all six scorecards and reports.

Finally let me assure the readers that this is not an attempt to plug any of our company products, as insinuated by couple of readers earlier, possibly when their favourite player was positioned below the top. I have nothing to sell, no products, no services, nothing !!!

Michael Hussey averages 117.67 at the No.7 slot © Getty Images

First I worked out the all-match average for each batting position. In this case the average will be appropriate since the same methodology is used to determine the individual batsmen figures. Since the comparisons are across all batsmen at the same position the impact of not outs is minimised. In order to ensure that flashes in the pan do not spoil the comparisons, a minimum limit of 1000 runs is set for Opening, no.3, no.4, no.5 and no.6 positions. For the positions 7 and 8, the bar is set at 500 runs.

The batting average of the batsman in the relevant position is divided by the all-match batting average for that position and the ratio is arrived at. The tables are ordered on this ratio and the top-10 shown along with the last player in that position. Let us now look at the tables.

Analysis of opening position. All matches average: 32.21

Now comes the master. An average of nearly 50 maintained over 300 matches while scoring nearly 15,000 runs tells the tale. There has been no better ODI player and probably never will be. Note how high Watson is placed, higher than masters such as Lara, Greenidge, Hayden and Mark Waugh.

Analysis of no. 3 position. All matches average: 32.90

Muttiah Muralitharan has taken ten or more wickets in a Test in four consecutive matches © AFPs

The innings, one of the greatest ever, need not be and is not the best ODI innings ever. The numbers 189/189/194/175/183/149/140/158 et al are floating around. By Tendulkar's own high standards, the 175/138/143/134/98 innings lay claim to being his best. But not to take away from the greatness and perfection of the innings. There might be greater innings but certainly no greater batsman during the past six decades. The gap is widening and soon would be insurmountable.

This is similar to the 400 which, despite being the highest Test innings, is nowhere near innings associated with the numbers 270/153/154/281/149/213/293 et al.

I needed to create a completely new Database of Player-Match records. However this will be very useful since I can do many new analysis without resorting to individual programs. That will be a great bonus.

Let us see the tables starting with 3 or more wickets. I have shown the first three in each classification. Where there are multiple bowlers with same number of Tests, the one with the highest WpT figure is shown.

Wkts/test Bowler            # of  First  # of  Avge
tests  MtNo   Wkts   WpT

At this point it is worth explaining that there could be 3+ wkts streaks of more than 17 Tests from either Warne or Murali. I have deliberately shown the top three bowlers, rather than the top three bowling streaks, to broaden the scope of the anaysis.

As expected Muralitharan dominates the other classifications, leading in the 10+, 9+, 8+(shared), 7+, 6+, 5+ and 4+ wickets categories.

Wkts/test Bowler            # of  First  # of  Avge
tests  MtNo   Wkts   WpT

For this particular analysis it does not matter whether the results were home wins or away wins. It is also quite possible that an innings win might be a dull mach when compared to a close draw. However I have a limited perspective here of looking only at results. In another later article I will look at excluding "dull" results and including "exciting" draws.

|<-1970-2010->|<---1970s-->|<---1980s-->|<---1990s-->|<---2000s-->|
|   M   R   % |  M   R   % |  M   R   % |  M   R   % |  M   R   % |
ALL|1277 831 65.1|197 113 57.4|267 144 53.9|347 223 64.3|460 346 75.2|

Barring the disastrous 1980s, Australian matches have produced results over 80% of the time. This figure is going up year by year. No doubt due to the sporting nature of the pitches there.

Not worth talking about Bangladesh since most of the results there are Bangladeshi losses. No offence meant.

England had a very dull 1970s decade but recovered well and are now comfortably having results in three out of four matches.

India seems to have the worst record amongst all countries. Even in the last decade, when the rest of the world, especially outside the subcontinent, produced result-oriented pitches, India had only a 60% result value. This is quite low for the modern game of Test cricket desperately trying to maintain spectator interest.

New Zealand was very poor during the first two decades but seems to be improving steadily. However it must be mentioned that quite a few results there are the result of diabolic poor quality pitches, especially during thge early-2000s.

There was a time when Pakistan had a result % of 28. Now they have progressed to 2 out of 3. Still ranks with India as not conducive to results.

South Africa must be the most improved country in this regard and are mirroring Australia in producing pitches with opportunities for both Batsmen and Bowlers. Incidentally there were two great exciting draws there recently.

Srilankan pitches were flat as recently as last decade with a result % of only 50. Now there is a sudden improvement and they have a lot more results, mostly for the home team (and Muralitharan).

West Indies are nearly as bad as India. Only around 60% of the matches produce results. The West Indies situation, with progressively weakening teams, is understandable.

Zimbabwe is somewhat like Bangladesh. They lose home matches quite regularly. However they have at least managed to draw quite a few home tests as shown by the low results %.

Decade analysis

Over the past 40 years, the result % has been 65, no doubt aided by the recent spurt in result matches. The last decade has been excellent with over 3 out of 4 matches decisive.

The 1970s were average with only 57% being result matches. Australia were the only exception to the safety-first method employed by home countries. Pakistan was exceptionally poor.

The 1980s was the nadir with even Australia falling into this mire. No country exceeded 64% and only around half the matches produced results. Pakistan improved but India and New Zealand fell back.

There was a marked move up in the 1990s. The result % moved up to 64. Australia had 75% result matches but the real improvement was in India with 73% result matches, possibly through Kumble.

The last decade was an excellent one overall with 75% result matches. The only two countries pulling down the result figure are India, with 61.7% and West Indies, with 60.8%. As already stated, West Indies situation is understandable. However, the Indian scene, with a team aspiring and succeeding to go to the top and possessing an outstanding team is inexplicable. I hope the Indian pitches change quickly and we see a 75+% during the coming decade.

What I would like to see in the 2010s decade is for the overall figure to go upto 80%. I would prefer that this is achieved through India and West Indies consistently reaching 75% results.

I have stayed away from a graphic representation of these numbers since the figures any readers would be interested in are readily available and the readers can draw their own conclusions. Nothing is gained by doing a graph for the sake of showing something visual.

From this month onwards I will be doing at least two light-weight posts such as this and the preceding one. Over the past few weeks many readers have asked for special types of analysis and most of these would fall into this category.

I have also done a Runs per partnerships measure rather than the Average, in other words ignoring the unbroken partnerships. This does not really matter since very few opening partnerships remain unbroken. The analysis is current upto match # 2948, the fifth ODI between Australia and Pakistan.

Team          OpP   Runs   RpP

In all these tables, the last three positions are held by Bangladesh, Zimbabwe and Kenya. Leaving these teams aside, the fourth from last position should be the one to interest us. In this table New Zealand occupies that position, with an average RpP of 30.52, nearly 40% behind Australia.

2. Opening partnerships - by Partnership Strike rate

Team          OpP   Runs  Balls    S/R

The strike rate of West Indies, despite the presence of Gayle, has been only 75.3.

Now I have done a special analysis of partnerships, only those of 50 runs and above. These partnerships lay the foundation for good scores. Both the size and rate of scoring matter. I have used 50 instead of 100 since these are limited over matches and scoring 50 normally means that the opening spells, of around 10 overs, have been tackled, as also the first PowerPlay. Also it allows us to have decent number of partnerships for consideration (717, about 25%)

3. Opening partnerships ( >= 50 ) - by Runs per Partnership

Team          OpP    %     Runs   RpP