Aussies favourites despite setbacks

While Bangladesh are involved in the first two matches of the NatWest series, the serious business really gets underway on Sunday when England and Australia meet at Bristol.

The home side will go into their first big match of the summer buoyed by the Australians' lack of early form and by some good performances of their own, and they can also take comfort from the fact that they beat the Aussies the last time they met, in the semi-finals of the ICC Trophy last autumn.

However, that's basically as good as it gets for England. The ICC Trophy win was their only one-day international victory over Australia this century. In 11 matches this decade, Australia have won 10 of them. And of the last 20 between the two sides, Australia have won 15 to England's five.

No prizes, then, for guessing that bet365 will be making Australia favourites for the match, most likely to be 8/13 (1.60), while England will be in the region of 5/4 (2.25). Those odds may actually be affected by the relatively slow start Australia have made to the tour. They are likely to be ready for England, though, and 4-6 is perhaps a generous price.

England's average score over their last 20 battles with Australia when batting first is 201.6, while it is 254.6 for Australia, a sizeable difference.

Success in the one-day internationals does not automatically guarantee Ashes victory, of course, but in the last three series in England, Australia won 3-0 in 2001 and 1993, while England won the 1997 series 3-0. The Aussies went on to win each of the Ashes series.

When England beat Australia in the ICC Trophy, they did it chasing 260 for victory, reaching their target with six wickets to spare. On that occasion, Michael Vaughan and Marcus Trescothick both hit knocks over 80, while an unbeaten 52 from Andrew Strauss sealed victory for the home side, and all three are likely to be up there in terms of batting markets on the day.

For Australia, expect captain Ricky Ponting, Matthew Hayden and Adam Gilchrist to be favourites in the batting markets, while Glenn McGrath, Jason Gillespie and Brett Lee are likely to be the favoured bowlers.

The two sides have met at Bristol just once before, in 2001, when Australia, chasing 268-4, eased to 272-5 to clinch the win.