Australia in with a chance at Lord's

A brilliant partnership between Michael Clarke and Brad Haddin has given Australia a glimmer of hope going into day five of the second Test at Lord's. With 209 still required and only five wickets remaining, England remain favourites but they will have a growing fear in their mind that what seemed a certain victory could be snatched away from them.

One early wicket on Monday should be enough to set England on their way but they know they can never write off an Australia side who while a shadow of the teams that have dominated the Ashes contests for the past 20 years (2005 aside), will believe they can now win this match.

That would be a travesty for an England team who have dominated from the opening ball, but bet365 think they will go on to win it, making them 4/11 to do so, while the Aussies are 5/2 and the draw is available at 20/1.

Bet365 make Australia 10/11 to get to 441 or more, which of course would not be enough for the win, while Clarke, not out 125 overnight, is 10/11 to get to 160 or better, with Haddin the same price to go from 80 to 108 or more.

Providing the weather holds, there is plenty of time for Australia to get the runs so there is sure to be plenty of tension flying around on Monday morning. Whoever handles it best will come out on top.

Original preview
After the great escape, the great challenge. England know they got away with it in Cardiff and that Australia will come at them hard in the second Test, which begins at Lord's on Thursday. The question is, who will have taken most out of the draw, a relieved England or a frustrated Australia side?

Momentum is crucial in a series like this one, especially where on paper the teams are closely matched. If England can find their top form and assert themselves, then they could well go into Lord's feeling like they have a second chance.

Alternatively, the Aussies may well feel that though they are hugely disappointed not to have won in Cardiff, they did everything but get over the finish line, so there is not an awful lot wrong with the way they are playing.

Australia are 13/8 with bet365 to win it. The draw is now evens and England are 4/1.

There have been a lot of comparisons with the 2005 series, in particular with the Old Trafford Test when England were frustrated by Australia's tail and had to settle for a draw. They will remember that match well, for though they did not win, their performance convinced them that they were the better side and they pushed on to win the series.

And so to Lord's, where Australia won four years ago and where, frankly, England have a pretty terrible record. Not only have they not beaten Australia there since 1934, they have won just 12 of 34 Tests there in the past 20 years.

England will, surely, make changes to their side, with Monty Panesar the most likely to miss out, despite his batting heroics in Cardiff. Panesar's bowling is not as effective as a couple of years ago and Graeme Swann offers more. Panesar actually has a good record at Lord's, but the pitch is much livelier than Cardiff. That could mean a recall for Steve Harmison, who has been added to the squad, or Graham Onions.

The Aussies are likely to be unchanged from the side that went so close in Cardiff, especially as Brett Lee is not ready to return from injury. No point pushing him when he is not fully fit.

England will ask their batsmen to show more application than they did in the first Test and they need more runs from the top three, while Kevin Pietersen will want to show he is still the top man. Where better than Lord's, the home of cricket, so put on a show?

Pietersen is 3/1 favourite to top-score for England in their first innings, as he did in Cardiff, while captain Andrew Strauss is 4/1 and Alastair Cook, who looks slightly out of touch to me, is 9/2.

Ian Bell, who is unlikely to play, is 5/1 - just showing how good a batsman he actually is, even if he's not in the likely side - as is Ravi Bopara, while Paul Collingwood, the hero of Cardiff, is 13/2. Matt Prior is 8/1 and Andrew Flintoff, who has announced that this will be his last Test series is 12/1.

For Australia, captain Ricky Ponting is again the favourite at 11/4, with Simon Katich 4/1, Phil Hughes 9/2 and Michael Hussey and Michael Clarke are both 11/2. Marcus North is 15/2, with Brad Haddin a 10/1 chance.

I have to say I have a bit of a bad feeling for England's chances in this match. Lord's is not a happy hunting ground for them and the Aussies will sniff blood after such a near-miss in Cardiff.